psuhoffman

@Ji Baltimore snowfall (Avg 19.3) 2017 3” 2018 15.4” 2019 18.3” (in a Nino!!!) 2020 1.8” 2021 10.9” 2022 14.4 2023 0 through Jan 15 Least snowy 7 years in recorded history This isn’t about one storm. Ya it can still snow. It likely will snow this winter at some point. This isn’t about one bad year. It’s literally been the least snowy period ever over 7 years now and you’re acting like it’s just some bad luck for a month or two.

This is twice now you’ve reacted this way to a joke.

You just got 50 inches....then last winter...central Virginia was well above normal with snow and we had a ton to track. Its snowing in the area just fine. Can we just have a bad year in peace 50“ is only slightly above avg for me. And it was preceded by the least snowy winter in 50 years, followed by a horrible season and surrounded by 5 below avg years. That’s doing fine? DC and Baltimore are in the midst of the least snowy 7 year period in recorded history. But that’s doing fine? You’re bringing up MSP which is 5 degree north of us and half a continent away in relation to our snow! This isn’t about one or two storms or some anecdotal examples. It has been the least snowy period ever for much of this forum. That’s just pure numbers. Seriously what is your agenda here because your points are not even close to grounded in reality right now.

Ya I was thinking “ you better hope it’s real” because if it’s not and it’s just been “randomly” this way that’s a lot worse.

Ya well it’s the JMA and ppl were throwing it around like it was some great run. The rain snow line was about to blast through while the low was still 500 miles south of us! My reaction to that run was very different. But to each their own.

I’m not taking responsibility for this shit show anymore. I created a whole other thread and now y’all debating whether debate happens in here. The problem in this thread isn’t posts about snow trends it’s that it’s January 15th and it hasn’t snowed at all and there is nothing imminent on the horizon.

Maybe it is noise but the effect of the warmer waters isn’t. So even if there is no cyclical cause and it’s just random it still matters to our sensible weather.

So….the rain snow line is near DC with a low in the gulf. Just sayin.

???

Actually the north pac has had low pressure much of the time which is more Nino. That’s why the super Nino ish temp profile and CA precip. As for your first part, I’m not the arbiter of truth. I try to present evidence. Sometimes I make a claim and always back it up with the reasons why I feel that way. But I’ve never told anyone to shut up or tried to stop any conversations. Never will.

Winter still exists at 4800 feet

Always a good idea, the snowiest model always performs well, especially when it’s a lone outlier! MSP snowfall has absolutely no correlation to us. They’re 5 degrees north of us! I don’t have the data analysts to be conclusive of these yet but to make my point, an expanding pacific Hadley cell would likely be a net benefit to their snow climo but negative to us. A more prominent SE ridge from a hotter gulf and Atlantic would also help them and hurt us. Anything that shifts the baroclinic boundary north hurts us way more than them. Again using locations with vastly different climates isn’t valid to the case you’re trying to make. I’ve never claimed it’s getting harder to snow everywhere. I’ve said it’s become harder to snow HERE! What it does in MSP is irrelevant. That’s one of the coldest individual frames. That’s bad because we’re still not on the cold side and rarely will the wave occur at the coldest point. Actually the waves are likely to happen at the warmest point due to basic physics of waves and the flow ahead of any wave. We really want to be well into the cold side of the boundary on a mean to survive the push north of the boundary ahead of any reasonable wave. It’s not an impossible look. But it would require a lot of luck. The last 7 years hasn’t made me feel lucky. That article us junk. There is good science and bad. People need to use their brains and identify when something is based on sound evidence and analysis and when it’s sensationalism and click bait. Nina’s strongly correlate to below avg snow here. Not no snow. Actually it’s almost unheard of to get this far into a Nina in this area with no snow, or like 2” in your case. Typically Nina’s have way less spread that other years and the vast majority historically end up near median snowfall in the area. Most of our truly god awful years we’re enso neutral (which can be great or awful, see 2014 and 2020) or super ninos like 73 & 98. This is very abnormal for a Nina.

Let’s move all this discussion here for maestro’s sanity sake.

look at the 850 anomalies. This isn’t as close as you are painting it for our area. Unless we just want some front end freezing rain.

This is another two things can be true. Also some are wired differently. I remember in high school I scored a goal late in a game we were down 5-0 and some teammates wanted me to celebrate and I was like “no just put the ball on the fucking spot and let’s get this embarrassment over”. I know that’s not a perfect analogy but I’m doing two things at once here. Yes I’m the moment I’d enjoy a 4” snowstorm. But I’m also really hopeful I’m dead wrong and the people saying this is 100% bad luck and we’re about to come storming back and restore our climo are right. Im hunting for evidence. One 4” storm to bring me to 10% of normal isn’t even a drop in the bucket wrt that.

I am talking about trends up to NOW and how they impact is now. That’s pertinent because we base a lot of our analysis on historical normals for patterns. Take my post in banter last night about the euros rainstorm for the mid Atlantic despite every pattern indicator being perfect for a snowstorm. My point when I said “I don’t even know what I’m looking for anymore” was right now when I analyze a long range pattern and see that look my expectation is a snowstorm and when it ends up a 40 degree rain literally I’m not even sure what to look for anymore. That doesn’t mean the trend doesn’t change in the future. I dunno. Also two trends can be true as I’ve said. I do think we get more snow soon. But I don’t think we get so much more that we offset the lack of snow recently. On the short scale we will get a snowier period ahead but likely the longer term down trend will also continue. That’s my gut. But that doesn’t mean I’m saying it’s never gonna snow again or won’t ever be snowier periods ahead.

I disagree on how likely we are to get much snow from that. It’s better yes. But it’s going from a 0/10 to 3/10 imo. Analogs to that aren’t good. Some are total shutouts. Some have a tiny bit of snow. Some minor events. If we had that look long enough we probably would get some snow but that isn’t a snowy look just not a no hope shit the blinds one. But it’s not worth being excited about either. To quantify if that was a monthly h5 mean for Feb I would buy BWIs over under at 4”. That’s still below avg and pathetic considering it’s coming off a complete blanking

I’m talking about NOW. Right now. I don’t know what May or may not happen 50 years from now and frankly I don’t care. I have my suspicions but I’m not been going there. Y’all do that.

@Ji there can also be different trends on different time scales. By belief that on a longer scale the downward trend is real is not in contradiction with those saying better times are ahead. I do strongly believe BWI will get more snow in the next 7 years than it got the last 7. I do think on a shorter timescale we’ve been in a down cycle. But do I think BWI will average 30” over the next 7 years which is what is necessary to balance out the last 7 and get the larger period back to “normal”. No. So I believe both can be true. Yes we will likely get a significantly snowier period ahead soon. Maybe BWI does average 25” over the next 7 years. But that would still mean at the end of that period the longer term down trend continues and BWIs longer term snow mean will have continued to decline. I see a lot of one statement being misused in relation to another. They are independent things. Just like when I say a pattern doesn’t look good doesn’t mean we can’t luck into some snow somewhere. Getting some snow is normal. Just means a good run where we actually get above normal snow isn’t likely. But if I say something is trending bad or it’s not a great pattern suddenly I said it’s never gonna snow again.

@JiTo be more specific a SE ridge is a good thing for Chicago. So if there is a large scale change that’s increasing the SE ridge it might help them and hurt us.

When did I say it’s going to be crappy in the future? I’ve said repeatedly I can’t say that for sure. All I’ve done is present the data that shows the trend. Everyone else drew the obvious logical inferences from that. But don’t get mad at me.

Not true at....when the west/Midwest is seeing above average snow and were in shutout modre...its all about the pattern. The whole country can't be cold and snow The Midwest isn’t getting a lot of snow. The only places getting a lot of snow are higher elevations out west. Higher elevations and places north of our latitude aren’t good comps to us. For example, if the hemispheric pattern were to shift in a way that shifts the thermal boundary north 1 degree but also increases baroclinicity and precip events that would be a net benefit to snowfall in high elevations and places north of us but a net negative for us. I don’t wish to rehash this in detail. That was just an example. If you want to dig deep into this we can go over to the climate change thread. But I’m simply pointing out that using increases in snow in places that have a totally different snow climo with no correlation to us and get snow in different ways is a bad way to make the case you’re making. The same factors that might hurt us could help them.

Who is we? Usually when one area dosnet get snow another area flourishes This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good. Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95. But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought. Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC. Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg. One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects.

Two things can be true. 1) It will snow again and there will be another HECS. 2) we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history and lately it’s been a lot harder to get snow than it used to be Those two things don’t have to start a back and forth everytime one or the other is brought up. They can coexist.

Please we’ve had -3 NAO blocks recently where we cant even get any negative anomaly. And before anyone says but the pna there were several periods In the 60s with a -pna and a trough across the whole conus because of a block!