psuhoffman

The good news is it can’t be worse! Im skeptical how much it will help myself. But at least then we will know. If we get a modoki Nino and Baltimore gets 7” or something, after the last 7 years also, we know the party’s over and it’s time to just move on. This is simply the new normal. My guess though is that better is still better. The question is how much better. But I do think we are still capable of 20”+ seasons. But the bad years will likely continue to be so bad that the decades of Baltimore averaging close to 20” are probably out of reach.

We’ve had small periods as bad as anything before. We’ve never had a prolonged period as bad as 2017-now. No one season or event fail alone is alarming. But the cumulative evidence is becoming worrying.

Hemispheric energies are low

The cliffs notes version

We’re due and all that

It’s only cold because the wave is 500 miles south of us. Had it amplified and come north the boundary would have also. We’ve seen this run after run.

So close

In the higher elevation of western NC sure. But no one under like 700 feet is getting accumulation with those boundary thermals.

Every once in a while a crazy anomaly happens. But on that 12z run things went like 95% right and it still didn’t work with that next wave. Last weekend we had a perfect track coastal and no one even noticed as it was raining. We’re in real bad shape.

Impressive! but actually check the thermals. Surface temps are 34-37. White rain.

There is just no win to be had here. Until we see stream interaction in which there is actually a legit frozen representation to the north of storms at or south of our latitude…we are just rearranging deck chairs. There is no real path.

lol

Why...was there a se ridge? There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade

Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal!

12 bwi ens probabilities through 0z 2/6/23 1”: 49% 3”: 29% 6”: 5%

Like I said...the whole run looks more like you would expect a run in early November to look.

but what about talking about talking about climate change? I do think the compromise that its ok to talk about the affects of the fact it is getting warmer so long as we don't debate the cause or human involvement should avoid the politics side. I mean the fact it is warmer now than in recent recorded history isn't controversial or political. Its simply the debate over the cause that gets messy. But I defer to the bosses.

The rest of our lives

Forgot to update the 0z collective probabilities for 1”/3”/6” at bwi 1”: 50% 3”: 24% 6” 9%

Look at the CMC. The high is perfect and it’s still all rain. It wouldn’t matter.

Our mid winter climo is acting like November. Yea it’s possible to snow but in November we knew even if everything went 95% right it would still fail most of the time because it was just too warm and takes an extremely anomalous event and rare confluence of every factor going perfectly to overcome that. Well welcome to mid winter and…

what are we even doing anymore???

Man look at the progression of that storm. And it’s not a pac puke airmass there was an arctic high in front of it. Yes I know it moves out. Yes every one of the 500 variables didn’t go 100% perfect. But look at the h5 and surface progression. In early Feb. then look at the results. Tell me it doesn’t look the way you would expect if that was happening in early November or April not mid winter!

So now Feb 7 is “the one” ? Oh and the high isn’t perfect, it’s 4.3 miles too far east and isn’t 1060. Fail.

I understand the problem it causes but it is kinda ridiculous and difficult to avoid any mention of CC in a thread devoted to discussing weather when CC kinda impacts everything “weather”. The whole thing is stupid.