psuhoffman

Naw do it here then someone will see 5 new pages and get excited just to find it’s a discussion about how bad things are.

That's a 15 yard taunting penalty

At least you got the solution... bitch about the bitching

I am familiar with spring skiing up there. What resort are you going to and what week of April?

See this is normal

I am concerned. It's not EVERY storm. But getting a mid latitude storm in January and February with no snowfall associated with it even to the NW of the track south of 40 degrees used to be a fairly rare thing. On average you would start to see snow show up to the NW of the track once north of about 36 degrees. But lately I have noticed a lot of storms in the last 5 years or so where they have absolutely no snow until you get north of like 40 or even 41 degrees. Again, that always happened sometimes...but it seems to be becoming a lot more common lately. That's a big problem for us obviously!

yea but it's not even one sporadic fluke thing... and not ONLY when there is a GL low and not even just here...... Where is the snow here? Where is the snow here? There have been a LOT of mid latitude waves recently where this is absolutely no, or VERY little, snow on the north side of the storm until it gets north of our latitude. That leaves no hope for us.

If we're lucky maybe we will get a perfect track and.... FUCK

This is sad

It snow's in Hawaii above 10,000 feet

The elevation at which snow would regularly occur in winter at Miami's latitude would likely be about 10,000 feet. It could sporadically snow below that and it would snow a lot more above obviously...but that is roughly the elevation where you would see snow on a regular basis in winter.

I have obviously not done any first hand research nor do I have a submarine... the clown part is how he spends years saying one thing... then when there is just no way he can possibly cling to that anymore he immediately swings to some other fringe theory and is immediately all in on that.

This is probably the last time I am wasting my time on this period. If future runs identify a tangible threat period I will start tracking that but as of now the threat of anything significant in the coming period is dead. There is still some threat of an inch or two in the area with the wave this week but that is best handled by operational and meso models at this point not ensembles so there is no point doing this anymore. 0z 1/30/23 combined ensemble bwi snow probabilities through 0z Feb 6 1": 21% 3": 4% 6": 3%

When I started really digging into what the ensembles were actually hinting at, when this was still like 12 days out, shockingly they were showing exactly what this ended up being. The reason the 1" probabilities were always way higher than the 3" even with a fairly high mean some runs was that the guidance was always saying our area had a decent chance of like 1" somewhere around here from that initial wave, but that while a few outlier members showed some huge 8" plus dump from the second wave which skewed the mean the truth was the vast majority of guidance was always a miss with wave 2. The pattern now in the short to medium range still looks exactly like it did really when it was the super long range. Pretty amazing guidance win. Sometimes the guidance is just wrong...and we always notice, so its worth pointing out when it nails something...even when its not necessarily what we want.

OMFG apparently this has been going on for a while but I just found out...JB has now fully conceded its warming BUT is blaming it on geothermal activity in the oceans, without any evidence and despite the fact the heat content of the ocean is increasing the most closest to the surface! He is getting roasted. What happened that he turned himself into a whole clown.

In the eastern US every 1000 ft of elevation equates to about 2 degrees of latitude in terms of climate. My climate at 1100 ft is closer to sea level places in southern New England. Snowshoe at 4800 ft in WV is closer to sea level at 44-45 degrees.

I’m totally fine with all the woulda coulda shoulda after a win.

Hello was I not loud enough??? God no one listens to me.

12z combined bwi ens snow probability through 0z 2/6 1”: 33% 3”: 6% 6”: 3%

One of the things I hope this probabilities calculation will help with is to dispel the perception the NWP is constantly “teasing” is with predicting snow. Sometimes it does. It’s certainly not perfect. But more often what I see is a situation where maybe a run or two of one op model shows snow over a day or two but it’s never the preponderance of evidence. But we give that gfs rub that shows a snowstorm way more attention than the other guidance that doesn’t. Or the eps might for a couple runs look snowy but the gefs and geps isn’t. Or people see a 3.5” snow mean and thing the guidance is saying they think we will get 3.5”. That’s not what a mean means. Lol. If the mean is 3.5” but the probability of snow is 40% it’s actually saying we probably won’t get anything. I hope this gives a better indication of what the guidance actually thinks our chances of snow are. At no point during this window we’re tracking was the chance of 1” higher than ~50% or the chance of 3” above 30%. Guidance never teased us. It always even from 12 days out was saying we had a chance at 1-2” somewhere in our area with wave 1 and anything else was a super long shot. That’s still where we are now.

If we can only get what used to be a normal amount of snow during one specific type of one specific enso state that happens 1/15 years…

0z combined ens probability through Feb 6 1”: 36% 3”: 10% 6”: 5% Unless this period makes a comeback at 12z it’s provably time to move on and start tracking through Feb 12 since there are some attempts at false hope in the Feb 7-10 range. There is the chance of 1-2” somewhere with wave 1 but that’s honestly best tracked with the operational runs at this point. The main threat we were tracking in this period looks like a fail at this point

Let us start the day with a prayer. Lord…on this your day, please send your providence down upon the 49ers, give them the strength so that they may endure the unmerciful, unholy, horrific beating that will be inflicted upon them later today. We pray that you give them the fortitude to come out of this trying experience without their egos completely destroyed. Give them the foresight to see the better days that most surely lay behind this tragic day. For them we ask for your mercy lord. In the name of the father, the son, and the Holy Spirit. Amen.

If it's only going to snow in west based ninos....you are in big trouble this! 2019 was a Nino. But it wasn’t the “perfect” kind of Nino. Yea. True. But I keep rolling my eyes when people point out the minor imperfection (either seasonally or synoptically) that is the reason it didn’t snow because if the only time we get snow is the 1/10 years we get a west based moderate Nino or that once in a blue moon that every single one of like 200 synoptic variables all go perfectly we’re cooked.

2009-10 wasn't that long ago lol. How Many ninos have we had just like 09-10 since tben..im gonna guess 0. Closet...maybe 2016 and we got a hecs Even if Baltimore got a repeat of 2010 next year…the last 7 have been so bad it would still only get the 8 year period to a 17” avg! And that’s if we got our snowiest winter ever! I am not arguing we won’t get snowy winters again but I think it’s Unlikely we return to averaging 20” in Baltimore