psuhoffman

I don’t know. 99% of what I’ve done is simply pointing out what’s already happened. It’s not necessarily predictive. But obviously you can make logical inferences and deductions from the evidence. What could overcome is if we get a year with a predominant flow off the arctic instead of the pacific. It’s just that we used to be able to snow in marginal setups with a mix of air masses. Lately we need fresh polar air. if that is the new reality it will severely limit our opportunities but we will get years with a more favorable longwave pattern to inject arctic air. This year isn’t it.

We aren’t standing in the rain. We’re looking at a screen probably from comfortable warm confines in most cases. And tell me, how do we analyze a snow threat without talking about temperatures? Really tell me how you want me to do that?

Don’t get cute. You didn’t attack me. You attacked Stormtracker. And defending him from your personal attack is not making personal attacks. Don’t try to pivot and make this about me now just because I’m an asshole and an easier target and you realize you can’t defend what you said to him.

Not much support on the gefs but I guess there’s a chance. Super long shot but not zero

Ok so you don't even disagree its a low probability threat which is all anyone here was saying and why we're not blowing up the thread and going stupid crazy. But you weren't getting the attention you wanted so you decided to launch an unwarranted attack on @stormtracker. Ya I think I get it. We haven't missed anything. IT HASNT SNOWED AT ALL... And no one has missed this threat. Its been talked about extensively. I made a post about it earlier today and why I don't think its likely. Others have posted on it. We just aren't getting excited about a long range low probability threat. If it gets inside 100 hours and starts to show up on most guidance (at the same damn time) then things will get active in here, but why are you so bent about the fact were not freaking out over an op gfs run at long range?

That’s not the worst comp ever. But I didn’t say it’s impossible. I estimated it as a once a decade type anomaly so going back to something from over 15 years ago doesn’t really refute the point that it’s a very rare unlikely type event.

Of course it’s not impossible. But my last post explained why it didnt leave me feeling too optimistic

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do. I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately. Let me explain. First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. Then it does this… Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens? That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there. And even with that look at this BS even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain mixing in all through the CCB. Ya it snows. And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. Sure that as shown there could happen. It’s very unlikely but not impossible. Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly. And if it does I’ll get excited at some point. But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed. That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it.

Why you teasing them? Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy. The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify.

Actually the guidance looks pretty good… for my trip to Colorado.

The only way to get cold enough with a 560+ ridge over us is for such extreme confluence and suppressive flow that a shredded result is the most likely outcome. We went through this game last week. By far the most likely outcomes are a cutter or suppressed. And guidance was jumping back and forth and some though that was good because we just needed a compromise but that’s not how it works.

Or….just don’t react to it. If you improve over time it will stop. Responding just feeds into it.

I get the sentiment that once you give up on winter it would be nice if we simply jump straight to 70 degree sunny weather every day but that simply isn't how it works. Almost EVERY year we will get a chilly period somewhere in early spring and EVERY time the "this is the worst thing ever" posts come out. And now people are stressing about just the thought of it before its even a reality! That's too much drama for me.

I get it, the whole not believing it will snow, but on the other hand it’s not like guidance has been teasing us and pulling the rug. Not a single threat has made it inside day 7! And even some of the times some were trying to be super optimistic about a day 10-15 look I was thinking Naw that’s probably not gonna work. The guidance has been clear in saying we’re fucked. So if we can get a legit good look with actual cold air inside day 5 that’s something new and I’ll be interested. Not saying it won’t fail we suck at that too but these day 15 fails dont even count imo.

@Maestrobjwa that’s rain. And that’s why talking about anything other than temps is a waste of time. Yea on a particular run the track might be imperfect. Or the high isn’t right. Or the storm is too weak. Too strong. Not enough confluence. Too much confluence. Whatever. But it doesn’t matter because even if everything goes damn near perfect it’s still too warm. Yea if we get lucky timing up a wave perfectly exactly during one of the 3 cold days we’ve had sure it could snow. But pretending that’s the problem is silly. So why would I waste time analyzing all that other crap when the real problem is it’s just too warm to snow.

@North Balti Zen nevermind. Sorry. You have the right to feel however you want. But the odds are most years there will be a chilly week or so somewhere in early spring. It’s incredibly unlikely we get 4 straight weeks of 65 plus weather from mid March to mid April.

Let me try to explain what’s going on in my head if you’ll let me. I’m “focused” on analyzing the pattern in terms of our snow prospects. If the warmth keeps coming up in my analysis it’s because it’s what I continue to see as the biggest factor in our failures. Have I been wrong? Has it been snowing? Have I been pessimistic or just realistic? I’m not trying to only talk about the warmth but I’m also not trying to avoid anything and if warmth is the biggest factor it will continue to be my focus. Maybe this is because I did that study of every snowstorm Baltimore has had since 1950 where I looked at the surface and upper level synoptic pattern for every single one so I have this idea in my head of what the various types of setups that should result in snow here are. And when it fails I look for what the biggest culprit was not pick apart every little imperfection because almost no setups were perfect. If we only get snow when it’s perfect in every way it’s rarely gonna snow! Let me use an example from the last Gfs run to illustrate. Ya I know this is day 16 but it doesn’t matter I simply pulled this as an example and I didn’t feel like going back to find some real short range example so just pretend this is a 72 hour prog not 384. look at this… That wave is riding west to east under a high due to some temporary confidence. It’s weakening so that’s likely going to cut and end to rain. And it would have in any period. But…it should be some snow to start given that setup. But it’s not going to be. Look at the purple line. In my experience the precip north of that line should be snow. But it’s not. Except for the higher elevations it’s all rain until well north of our latitude. Why? Ok so here is where you COULD say any one of a thousand variables. *if the high was more perfectly located *if the storm took a more perfect track *if there was an injection of straight Siberian vodka cold perfectly timed I could go on and on and on and yes all those things could have made it snow. But that’s not how I see it. That exact setup has lead to a 1-3”, or more, front end snow in our area countless times in the past. Why isn’t it there? It’s just too warm! It’s that simple. I’m not interested in trying to find excuses to ignore the most obvious problem. Yea if other things were more perfect it could have overcome it, I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore. But the main reason that isn’t snow isn’t some very minor imperfection. It’s that it’s too warm and it shouldn’t be given that setup that time of year! That’s not my agenda. That’s my analysis of the situation. When I see it repeatedly being too warm unless every little thing goes perfect in a way that is just not realistic…I think it’s pointless to even waste time of those other things. Ya sure hypothetically we could create a crazy list of 10,000 things we need to all go right to overcome the warmth but that’s just not realistic. It’s just probably not gonna snow until it consistently gets colder. The main problem is it’s too warm. I’m just not interested in ignoring that just because it’s depressing.

So what maybe we get another late March snow like 2018 and oh no if we have to wait an extra few weeks to get our 6 months of guaranteed warm weather.

Right now the expansion of the warmer waters in the Indian Ocean and western PAC is encouraging the MJO to be un warm phases but I read a paper that speculated in the longer term once waters warm elsewhere the mjo could actually propagate into cold phases more. But it seems to be highly speculative and we don’t know when that would happen.

The down trend in snow is affecting places that were marginal to begin with the most. This is obvious and logical. Places that could least afford to lose any margins are the first to fall. Lower elevation ski resorts that aren’t far enough north for example. DC for example. But also the impact of warming isn’t happening uniformly. I think we’re in a worse spot because several of the impacts all have a greater effect on our location due to our low elevation and our geographic location in relation to the pacific and Atlantic. Things like the indo pac warm pool and the expanding pac Hadley cell and the warning gulf are all placing us under a prevalent ridge. Warming can also cause more snow in some places where they are still cold enough but the warning is increasing precip. Unfortunately that’s not our situation. Of course I want snow. But I’m more frustrated with people who get upset and angry at me for simply stating the obvious. It’s warmer. It’s snowing less. Those are facts. Getting mad because someone says it out loud like it’s saying Voldemort and gonna conjure it into existence is stupid. I don’t think snow will be eradicated completely in our lifetime. You just have to be smart. I think Phineas is safe where he moved next to Mount Washington. Higher elevations in New England will still get a lot of snow. Maybe in our lifetime a place like that goes from 150” avg to 120” but that’s still a lot of snow by our standards lol.

The problem is for us to resume what used to be “normal” snowfall we don’t just need to get a sub 35* winter once in a blue moon. Remember we only got 20”+ (and 20” used to be normal!!!) 60% of the time in a sub 35” winter. For the math to work out we need sub 35* winters to happen ~50% of the time like they used too. If we only get a sub 35* winter 25% of the time going forward our snow climo will be severely diminished. Short answer yes. If temps continue to warm eventually their climo will become what ours was. But I can’t predict the future. I am simply stating observations of what has already happened. Bit if you made a N American map with a “winter existed north of this line this year” by say combining stats like where was it below 36* and had at least 10”, you would see that while that line has variance each year overall the “no winter south of this” line is trending north. It’s also trending up in elevation. Lower elevation ski resorts are increasingly struggling with temps and rain. If that trend was to continue yes their fate is eventually the same as ours. Just delayed but not denied. JB would be proud.

That’s pretty much where I am. And I’m mostly at peace with it. Someday I will move. Until then I’m resigned to the reality. Im just observing the obvious here.

We've had that general longwave pattern several times in the last 7 years...it just failed to produce that much snow because it was too warm.