psuhoffman

But why assume that would work anyways. We got the same pattern for our coldest snowiest climo period just 2 years ago and it was mostly a fail anyways. The cities got one fairly minor mixed event and a few perfect track rainstorms. Yes that definitely helped. But there are some other examples of snowy periods during that period without any Pacific help. This is the h5 from 6 snowy winters during the last -pdo. note the Aleutian ridge on the means. That was just a feature we had to overcome during the last -pdo. It’s going to be there most of the time the next 30 years if the last -pdo was any indication. If the only time we get above avg snow in the next 3 decades is on the extremely rare times we get a moderate modoki Nino we’re in for a rough ride! Others are way more qualified to speculate on this. I would listen to @WxWatcher007

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup.

I get that, I see it too, the problem is during the last -pdo cycle we rarely ever had a favorable pacific. What we’ve seen the last 8 years was simply the base state almost all the time for 3 decades!

During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore. At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure. But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. Look what that period looks like now… But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962 Look at where the core of the anomalies are. Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state? Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means. It was just so cold it didn’t matter. But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now? Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now? And I am not saying it won’t snow at all coming up. I think we could luck into something similar to 2018. But even if we do, so what? One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue. This is why. If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful. So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. No one is saying it won’t ever snow. It’s snowed over the last 8 years some. But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good @CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso. But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time. Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example. The pna was still negative we just overcame it. I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset.

I’ve said all winter our best chance was likely March. The shorter wavelengths make it easier to offset the pacific pattern which just won’t quit. So I’m not gonna completely dismiss this. Im just not going into its happening mode until I see it inside day 7 and no SER on the means. We’re moving the right direction I’m just being reserved for now. But if we’re really lucky maybe we get another super late season block like March 2001 or 2013.

I have a better base state.

But what part?

That would be one way to mitigate an Aleutian ridge. Lol ETA: you can see how the shorter wavelengths help there.

Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state.

Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way. During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful! There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too. The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again.

That looks familiar. Pretty much how our last 5 -NAOs went. But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this… That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted. But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state??? Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is?

I dunno man, I see 6 members there that have a -NAO linked to an eastern US ridge. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Some of the members that “look good” with a trough in the east had a linked NAO SER prior so the storm was just rain because there was warmth in front of it. So add in those 3 members then add in the handful that don’t develop blocking and it’s a majority that have a SER still.

all 3 ensembles indicate New England (away from the coast) will get quite a bit of snow soon. I drive there to ski all the time.

You’re right…they’re all part of the same feedback loop, but an Aleutian ridge alone can be mitigated. We’ve snowed with one before. Recently even. But when I see all 3 on a mean imo it means those features are still dominant and locked in and likely to trend stronger. All those other factors working to suppress the SER, one will likely not be as robust and the result is the whole boundary shifts north again. If I see a pattern with an Aleutian ridge but the SER is actually totally gone on the means and the trough axis is in the east then I might entertain that perhaps we’ve got a chance to mitigate the pac pattern. Again you’re ultimately right but I wanted to clarify that seeing all 3 on the mean to me indicates the pac ridge is still driving the bus.

I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease.

Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look.

It’s just a flesh wound.

January and February did

I Commend your optimism but given how hopeful you’ve been several times this year I’d hate to know how absolutely screwed we must be when you say the long range looks bad.

I don’t think we can have the luxury of being picky about how we get our snow.

So we race the clock. Similar to 2018. I’ve been hopeful of a late season window of opportunity but the base state has been so warm I do wonder.

But what does 10 days after that look like?

They lost because they gifted KC 7 points in the first half then couldn't adjust to what KC was doing on offense in the second. I think both teams pass rush was neutralized by the bad traction of the field. It's hard to get off the ball and get leverage to push past the offensive line when the traction is bad. I also think KC did a brilliant job taking advantage of that in the second half using motion and misdirection to get philly players moving the wrong direction then hitting them on cut backs. It worked time and again and they never adjusted. Both teams had to play on the same field so that's part of the game and KC did a better job playing to the conditions. Gannon should have adjusted the D to a zone assignment press man. Stop shifting all over to try to match the KC motion. KC was using it to move the defense until they got the look they wanted. So stop. Play a zone assignment then man up press against whoever ends up in your zone. You can't play a passive zone scheme when you can't break on the ball as quick as usual and your d line isn't getting pressure. That will just allow them to eat you alive 10 yards at a time and thats what happened. This problem also goes deeper than just last night. I know this will sound harsh but I would let Gannon go. His defense is amazing against mediocre QB's but struggles really horribly against good ones. Last night was not an anomaly. Over his 2 seasons they have given up some of the worse numbers to good QB's. It's just they eat offenses alive that don't have an elite QB. But I care more about being able to be competitive against a good team than putting up crazy numbers v bad ones. He is too passive, prioritizes not giving up big plays over actually making plays and he will never ever have the amount of talent on defense he had to work with this season. The eagles were able to load up a ridiculous amount of talent on D this year because Hurts was playing on a 1 million a year contract. Half the D will be gone. The offense will be mostly intact for years but on D they will have to work with way less talent going forward so if he can't stop top QB with the talent he had this year (was torched the last 2 years by every top 10 QB he faced) his system is never going to work.

We’re always 10 days away from being 10 days away.

The NAO has always had more impact the later in a season we go. March 2018 had the greatest affect of all the recent -NAOs. But at some point I’d like to see that a -NAO can overcome the pac in Dec-early Feb. Im pretty sure they can still work in March when shorter wavelengths mute the pac affects to begin with. But ultimately we need blocking to work Dec to Feb also if we want anything resembling what we think of as normal snow climo.