psuhoffman

There is some validity to this but keep in mind an outlier solution has a way better chance of scoring a coup when it’s on the side of typical climo then when it’s showing the more anomalous scenario.

A -NAO trending towards neutral isn’t bad, especially if the numerical trend is because the blocking is retrograding west into Canada which is increasing the NAO in the east region of the NAO domain. That’s not a bad look for us.

I get what you’re saying and you’re right the Gfs and icon arrive at their solutions in a different way. But there is a common thread. The thermal boundary is too far NW. That allows the Gfs to amp up and cut and allows the Ivon to get too far NW before getting shunted east. So although I get the point you’re making I think the pessimism is also warranted because we can see how even with a more suppressed solution we can still fail because the thermals aren’t what we need.

Hey everyone the rain on the ICON isn’t as bad as the rain on the Gfs because the storm tracks on a different trajectory. Win!!!!

Going forward March is least likely to be impacted by warmer SSTs. As for the past is seems during the last -pdo March was snowier. That could be random coincidence though. Sometimes it’s just chaos since snow is a pretty random fluke thing in our region.

Agree but there is a chance. The blocking does make this more realistic than those past mirages I’ve been making fun of all winter. This one while unlikely has a legit “chance”. But the thermal boundary still just isn’t right yet. We need a lot to go perfect with wave spacing to make up for the fact the thermal boundary base state is still to our northwest. I think come mid March we will get some waves where the boundary is to our south and we have less atmospheric hostility to overcome in the snow equation.

My guess…March was historically more snowy and we simply had a bad stretch. I think it’s the law of averages evening out. As for December, the warning SSTs are likely impacting December the most of all our winter months. Ian showed a great graphic how our first snowfall is consistently moving later over the last 50 years. If the avg SSTs continue to increase we are likely losing Dec as a “winter” month.

You’re definitely the best on here now at diagnosing this. Wish @showmethesnow would still post his morning briefings. But to summarize why those details are hard to resolve and could take longer than usual to get to the final solutions, there are too many waves involved in this scenario. And the wave breaking from each impacts both the high latitude configuration and the confluence but also the wave spacing under it. It’s asking a lot of guidance to be dead on balls accurate with all these waves in close proximity but that’s what’s necessary in order to get the exact right track correct on our potential storm. I’ve never expected this to be resolved at long leads given the setup.

You’re just trying to gaslight yourself now. We’re on the southern edge of the significant snowfall (which isn’t even a huge areal coverage due to marginal temps) already. So all it will take is a minor shift to take us out of the game. Even up here I wouldn’t feel safe at all. This is a thread the needle event in either direction. It’s not like 2010 or 2016 where some huge juiced stj wave in a split flow was attacking a blocker in high with cold in place. Those had wiggle room. A change in track of 50 miles or 2-3 degrees wouldn’t have a crazy impact on the outcome. Here a relatively minor adjustment would completely sink us. But you know that and you’re just saying this so you can feel justified when you go off and tirade when the euro pulls the rug out, which you likely anticipate happening.

I still think better setups are likely to happen towards mid March. But…we are in a different regime than most of winter. Yes we had blocking in December but the mid latitude response is significantly different in December than March. A few years ago I showed how in the last 20 years we actually need the pac more so than the atl to be cold in December. That wasn’t always true and it might be a big problem in this -pdo cycle but it is what it is. So this coming blocking regime is likely to be significantly different and so not sure using persistence anymore is the best way to go.

Sure

We said this like 5 times in March 2018 before we got snow.

There hasn’t been. Low bar.

You’re worried about the DGZ on a day 7 prog?

I can currently only think of 42

Not saying the day 7 thing has no shot. Just that will need a lot of luck. I don’t see it as a high probability event. I could see us get a high probability setup later. That’s all. But luck is the biggest variable in all this.

I co-sign. I know no one wants to be patient when it’s almost March and we are starving. I want snow right now too. But that period makes sense given the progression. The retrograding block will eventually link with the pac ridge and once that happens it will apply enough pressure on the mid latitude flow that the thermals will start to press further and further southeast. This is a typical progression when a blocking regime begins after a very hostile temperature regime. Blocking started early Jan 2016 but took weeks to get the thermals right. Took about 7-10 days after the block in 2018 before we were cold enough. Jan 2021 had great blocking but it wasn’t until early Feb that we had our best chances for snow. If it’s already cold (as if that’s ever true anymore) we can snap right into a snowy regime with a block but when we’re coming from a hostile thermal regime it usually takes time.

Cmc and icon suppressed. Like I said with so many waves this is unlikely to be correctly depicted on any given run. But it’s a long shot Imo. Needs perfect timing and has no margin for error with marginal cold at best.

I don’t think he’s trolling. I agree it’s a good thing the pattern is active. I know we’re running out of climo but as the block retrogrades the opposite will happen under it. As the ridge links with the pac ridge it will start to apply pressure under it and the thermal boundary will sag southeast in the means. By mid month the default base state of the boundary is likely to be far enough southeast for us to have a legit shot. For now seeing how active the wave train is bodes well for later. All this is about the mean. These changes don’t happen linearly or smoothly. The boundary will shift around and progress in a chaotic way. It’s possible we luck out before mid March if the chaos we’re to break our way. But later is when the mean configuration is likely to be more favorable. chuck was just pointing out how wet the pattern is which bodes well when the boundary does get right. We won’t be able to afford weeks of dry. We’re gonna get one or two wave shots at this at most before climo degrades too much.

Too bad Matt’s not around much anymore. Would have been entertaining

Shame there isn’t a sub here where they discuss New England weather. …yes I know he is trolling.

I actually agree with Chuck

Too late, books full