psuhoffman

I get it. I saved up my optimism since I pretty much knew we had no hope all winter until now so I was never invested at all in any of those. I don’t take it personal. This is a good point and it’s important to keep in mind what a “win” is in mid March. When I say I’m optimistic I’d still bet against us actually getting a significant storm. But I’m optimistic true pattern could produce one. That just meant maybe we have a 25% chance now v the near 0 one I felt we had all winter. But people need to know their local climo. If we did get lucky and a big storm it probably looks like March 18 where the urban areas get 3-5” and the 6”+ is reserved for the NW higher elevations. That’s what climo says is most likely even if we do get the storm we’re looking for.

See that trough developing south of AK helping to shift the Aleutian ridge northeast into AK and Canada. That’s new. All winter I was unenthusiastic because guidance kept underestimating the downstream impacts of the same pacific forcing. That part of the equation is finally different now.

What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF.

The ridge there is more a weakness between waves and not the tropical death ridge that kills all winter that dares stand before it. Look at the temps within that ridge. Actually there are negative anomalies there in some places. Now if the energy gets stuck and just sits for days in the SW like the op euro shows that does us no favors but that’s not been how we fail all year. Storms eject they just cut way to out NW over the heat ridge. Also I’d argue the longwave pattern in the eastern pacific and western Canada argues against that energy getting stuck. It should eject. That could fail but I don’t see it as the same fail. We can fail even in a good pattern.

Weak or brief waves into favorable phases against a hostile base state have little impact. A high amplitude wave, on the other hand typically can have more impact and can indicate a change in the base state.

I do worry about that ridge. But..if we get a crazy retrograding block, string phase 8 mjo which shifts the pac ridge northeast and links with the NAO block…and it still can’t win v that ridge… well you tell me? Then what? What exactly are we looking for? Can’t say “it’s the pac” anymore because the pac forcing is about to become pretty neutral and combined with the blocking certainly not something you can use to blame and excuse that kind of ridge! So yes I am concerned the ridge wins. But I’d it does that’s the conclusion of my book right there!

They make the Atlantic more important as it’s easier to back up and buckle the progression upstream with blocking.

I am hopeful for the first time all year. And yes it’s sucks it has to come at the tail end of snow climo but it is what it is. But here is why I think think time could be different. 1) March wavelengths produce different outcomes. The central pacific ridge feature isn’t as much a problem with a shorter wavelength longwave configuration. 2) more favorable tropical forcing than we’ve had all season 3) a true major SSWE that coupled with the TPV The effects of these 3 can be seen on the guidance and it’s not the same head fake as before. The pacific isn’t going to get great, but the ridge gets displaced NE some and a mid latitude trough undercuts it in the central pac. That’s a less hostile configuration than a full latitude ridge through the Aleutians! Still not great, but workable if other things are good which they are. The retrograding block links up with the pacific ridge completely which leaves no weakness for systems to cut in between which has been an issue. Mid latitude systems will be forced to slide east under the blocking across the top. All that doesn’t guarantee we get snow but I think this time we have a legit chance unlike all the other fake long range threats. Those were a false flag product of the guidance continually trying to change the result of the same forcing. That was just bunk. This time the equation has actually changed some.

I meant work to suppress the SER. If something gets squashed that means it worked. Lol

I think the gefs is rebounding the TPV too quickly.

This is it. I am finally seeing something I like. I am putting my chips all in, this is the one.

plus look at the lower heights under the Aleutians pressing the ridge into AK. If that longwave configuration there can't overcome the SER were in big big big trouble because that is about as good as its going to ever get in a -PDO. The pac isnt good but its mediocre there...and mediocre is about as good as we can hope for during a hostile PDO phase. Meanwhile we have a damn perfect in every way block. That HAS to work or its a really bad sign.

Gfs has the setup. Op splits the energy and one wave gets suppressed and the next one remains weak and slides to our north without any southern component.

Ya but I bet I made some people look

Why isn’t anyone talking about the ukmet???!!!!

Nice run to run changes

Albany likely isn’t far enough. I’d say northern NY or Northern VT. This is where the snow really is if you don’t use the clown maps that include ice as snow. Tonight into tomorrow is actually the closer chase

Depends how fast you drive.

by 72 hours its game over and I don't see the magnitude of changes we need being all that realistic within those lead times anymore.

Don't worry its just 10 days away

Agree which is why I am hopeful for this period. I think the GEFS is rushing the high latitude recovery.

The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive. So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS. ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp

Imo there are several factors that make it more believable. Often as wavelengths shorten the same forcing has different results. We’ve seen this in Nina’s before. Additionally, the tropical forcing is less hostile. We’ve not seen a strong wave into 7/8 all season. We saw some waves projected to weakly skim through but nothing that would seriously alter the forcing imo. Of course this could be a mirage but this isn’t the same tease we’ve seen. The pac is altered somewhat finally. It’s not exactly the same. All winter we had the same forcing but expected different results and I saw signs of the same background base state just muted in the long range progs. It was predictable those muted traits would become more pronounced. This time I think there is a chance the equation has actually changed.

You are spot on as usual but I think its important to note that the reason this is a huge problem and not just a minor one is that the mean thermal boundary position as the wave approaches is 200 miles to our NW. IF the boundary was to our south we could survive minor imperfections and an initial wave tracking to our west. I am not even sure it would track as far west if the boundary was further south. The flow is reasonably suppressive but the issue is a developing low pressure will track along the thermal boundary, so no matter how much confluence there is if that boundary is way to the north its a big big problem. Again, with the thermals the way they are we need everything to be absolutely perfect...and even then it can still fail as we've seen a couple times this year. Substitute a cold antecedent airmass and this setup would work imo. Again you're not wrong in diagnosing why this specific event is having trouble within the thermals we have to work with...I am just pointing out that our easier path to a win is to get a setup where there is actually a cold antecedent airmass...then we have way way more wiggle room for win scenarios v needing 8 million things to all go perfectly. I will play the optimist here... I think there are some notable differences. Namely XYZ here. X is a new feature...that mid latitude trough under the north Pac high changes the equation some. Instead of a full latitude ridge there with promotes a full latitude trough on the west coast...that trough undercutting the ridge encourages some ridging into the southwest...Y. That is just enough combined with the shorter March wavelengths and the effects of the true retrograding block to result is Z which is finally the SER is totally eradicated. It's not just suppressed on that prog its gone, bye bye, finito. Obviously it can be wrong, and I am breaking with my mantra all season here...but I do think this time has a legit chance to be different and a meaningful change to the longwave pattern. Whether its in time to save us is another story.

Maybe I’m crazy but…my take on 0z so far Icon is the icon why are we even discussing it. GFS is still way north. GGEM which is always the biggest tease trended north again. UK is a full fledge cutter. We will see what the euro shows. Well I’ll see in the morning. At the end of the day this is a problem because the thermal boundary is to our NW as the wave approaches. That rarely works out. Once in a blue moon but rare. Look at day 16 on the Gfs. If we ever get THAT look to day 5 then we have a high probability event I will be excited and fully invested in.