psuhoffman

That’s random chaos in the numbers. Correlation is not causation.

I notice the eps has the 50/50 further northeast. Wonder if that’s allowing for more progression behind it.

90% of the time the pac and SER have been coupled. But what vexes me are the rare times the pac was altered lately it didn’t matter. Look at what’s coming. This strong mjo wave in 7/8 is having an impact. 7/8 isn’t ideal in March but it’s way better than MC forcing. You can see coming up it’s able to alter the pacific into w more convoluted configuration. It’s not omg great but not totally hostile either. The crap base state is resisting but it’s as altered as I think we can hope for. But I could take a snapshot of various points where the ridges and troughs are in different locations in the pac yet the SER is the feature that remains constant on the Gfs. The ridge is less emphatic than when it was being fed by every longwave feature for sure but it’s still there. So something else has to be part of the equation. As for not talking about “that” how far does this go? We don’t need to discuss AGW to speculate here. The entire Atlantic basin is on fire. That’s not a climate change debate that a right now reality. Not being able to discuss what’s going on RIGHT NOW is ludicrous

You’re basically speculating the same thing just using technical terms lol. I don’t know but it would explain some things.

Gefs retrogrades the pac. But honestly by day 10 I like that look better than the stuck in between look of 12z. It allows the conus ridge to back into the SW. It’s cold but dry unless we get something to dive into the east but in March that can work sometimes. Certainly not as good as the euro progression. Crazy worlds apart starting at like day 6.

Lol ya the GFS basically obliterates the whole hemispheric circulation to avoid moving the SER lol. Hence my speculative comment above. It’s probably just wrong. But if it’s not…

I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii. Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed! Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect. That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself. We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed? If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot! Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver? Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER.

I’d give up all their winters since I’m not there.

If we ever do get another full latitude triple phased bomb it’s not going to take an identical track. 50 miles west and those asking for a repeat are regretting it. 50 mikes east and we’re all happy. But a storm like that does open the door to a cut even in a great pattern because once the arctic jet phases that will become the dominant feature and buckle the flow around it.

its minor for day 10 but look at h5… the control is phasing the arctic jet in about 6 hours faster. It’s already phased at 240 while the op is still getting its act together. That makes a huge difference since once it phases it cuts due north from SC coast to PA. 6 hours later and it tracks up the MD coast into NJ which is a big difference here. But the difference between 20”, 6” to rain, and an all rain cutter is noise at this range. The fact that solution is on the table is all that matters. Lastly…for those rooting for a 93 remake keep this in mind, that is playing with fire. About the only scenario that allows a cutter in that flow is a fully phased bomb that buckles the flow. Any other solution is forced under the block. Doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a monster storm. March 58 comes to mind. But a full phase bomb opens the door to an inland track. Of course a non phase opens the door to suppression so pick your poison. Place your bets. Chips all in.

I’ll gladly give up 1998, 2002, 2012, 2020 and 2023 up until now to get another 1993. That’s how that works right?

I thought that at first glance but if you loop the run and look at the blocked flow over the top…it can’t cut. It’s going to try though and that’s when we get annihilated, when a juiced up bomb tries to cut but can’t! Sure we might mix but that would have been an absolute monster solution had it gone out to day 12. Y’all can save the “it’s 10 days” crap. I can math and read a calendar. Obviously I know this is never going to be 100% correct and it’s just one of a bunch of permutations to this pattern. But this kind of solution is finally supported by the longwave pattern and realistically possible. Doesn’t mean it will happen. I’d bet against it if I had too. But it’s a way better bet in this pattern than at any time all season when we were wasting time on bullshit that had absolutely no chance based on the pattern. This is finally a pattern worth keeping an eye on threats.

6z Gfs hits us with wave 1 day 11 then us setup to hit us again when it ends. Yea it’s in unicorn land. No way it has the details and wave timing right. But it shows how this type of pattern could play out. This time such a result is supported by the longwave pattern drivers and not just some BS artifact of chaos at long leads.

Ops started to show more realistic progs given the pattern tonight.

Gfs is the ultimate kick in the nuts. Suppresses 3 straight waves, the last of which teases the crap out of us but crushed central and southern VA…then miller b’s us when the main energy ejects.

Quicker is kinda important given the time of year and our rapidly degrading climo

That’s likely just timing differences getting resolved which will focus the negative and increase the heights around it as the correct wave spacing gets resolved. There is going to be ridging in front of that initial trough. Whether that can become a threat will depend on the strength of the 50/50 and if it ejects and doesn’t stall for days. I like the wave AFTER that one more anyways. I said around the 15th was likely when the best pattern intersects with a degrading climo to create the best opportunity. But I could see the 11-12th if that wave ejects immediately. Either way this is a good test case. The pac isn’t awful there. It’s mediocre. If that blocking can’t suppress the SER in March with a neutral pac… I dunno man. Probably means we can’t snow anymore without a favorable pac. Problem is like 50% of all our snow historically came with either a hostile or mediocre pac. That’s a big problem if we can only snow when the pac is in a perfect -epo +pna alignment. That just doesn’t happen that often.

It has THE storm. The whole thing evolves about how I’d expect the big storm just comes together slightly too far north. That’s certainly possible but the difference between that result and a big hit here is noise at that range.

Irony is I’ve been optimistic exactly one time all winter. And if it doesn’t snow I’ll have been 100% too optimistic.

I don’t interpret those that way. That paltry snow to our north is a combo of weak NS waves along the arctic boundary and cutters from the minority cluster. The big problem on the majority is suppression during our window of opportunity That was a norlun trough that went berserk aided by the increased baroclinity that time of year in an anomalously cold airmass. I’d love to experience that kind of thing. Training stationary lines of thunder snow. It think it was all of it. Not only was I saying it has no chance in the next 2 weeks but my climo observations were interpreted as “and it’s never gonna snow again”. Which of course is an exaggeration but I get it. Irony is my climo stuff wasn’t predictive. I was simply pointing out trends and data that have already happened. I was putting a highlighter on evidence many didn’t want to see. I should have started every post with “don’t shoot the messenger” lol

Your point is well taken and it’s harder to be colder in late March so what I’m about to say is kinda hypocritical but how much of that was temps v sun angle? I have the same Sun angle here essentially and those snows accumulated here mid day. I was just several degrees colder. It is totally true that light snow with thin cloud cover wont accumulate after early March mid day mo matter how cold it is. I’ve experienced that. But if you can actually get the temp below like 30 I’ve seen heavy snow can.

No one is saying it will definitely snow. Just that it could. The odds are finally decent enough it’s worth tracking a possible threat. That’s all. It snowed in some portion of this sub in mid March or later 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and LAST YEAR lol so this isn’t an unprecedented thing. The irony to me is some of the people who are dismissing this were willing to track all winter when we were in a pattern I knew had absolutely no chance. We are far more likely to get a snowstorm in spring with this pattern than at any date in the pattern we’ve been in. That’s not saying much. Maybe it’s 20 % now v 1% before but if you were willing to track then it makes no sense to give up now.

Earlier in the season that would be more problematic but it’s ok there this time of year. Different wavelengths and colder SSTs. It would be a problem if that trough ends up further east into the west coast.