psuhoffman

@CAPE what’s even the pacific answer??? If that trough shifts any further east yes it would force the ridge into the west but it would also flood N Amer with pac puke so we would end up with a full continent ridge.

@CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and… The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. but wait check this out… the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific.

Just read the last 6 pages. Thought maybe this was worth a bump.

I feel ya but in the long run we’re in deep trouble if we can only snow in a -NAO Mod Nino. Those happen once a decade. They updated the correlations for the Indo Pac warm pool. The only good MJO phase is now 9. It’s gonna be thunderdome in here until it snows. Just have to put on your big boy pants and roll with it.

But I still think our best bet is centered on the 15th

The cutters are deeper.

If I can summarize this…The concerns wrt the initial wave if it comes out in one monster amplification like todays Ops are founded. There is a lot of ridging in front left over from the current pattern. Even with a block an over amped wave will push the boundary to our NW. This is why we usually do better with the follow up waves in a blocking regime! The one fly in that ointment would be a crazy bomb from wave one could suck the air out of the pattern and squash everything behind it. I don’t mind a 990 cutter to start the pattern…we don’t want some sub 980 monster firming a TPV over Ohio! Luckily if I had to root for the guidance to be over or under amplified at long leads I’ll take needing to root against the crazy once a decade anomaly every time!

If I want one model to have to be “over amped” it is the euro. Just sayin.

I could see this tease us into April but realistically climo starts to get really hostile on the coastal plain by then. It depends where you are. I think realistically after these threats through March 18 or so it’s over for them. Piedmont could still possible score late March. Above 1000 ft maybe into early April. But realistically our best chance is one of these 4 waves or so between March 10 and 20th probably.

If there is interest I would be open to it. But I’m not at home so I have to see what my internet situation is.

You all are going to lose your minds if you get too invested in each solution every 12 hours right now. The pattern is loaded. We will have threats. Probably multiple. Hopefully we get lucky and one is a flush hit. But the final solution to any of these threats won’t show itself yet on guidance. The pattern is way too noisy. This isn’t a Nino split flow blocking regime where the NS is quiet and we guidance simply has to time up the STJ waves. This pattern involves too many wave interactions for guidance to nail details at long leads. Some thought I have on this pattern…we have multiple ways to score. If the initial wave fails it could pull the boundary south for the next one. That seems our most likely win. If it holds back it could eject waves that might get us. This wouldn’t be a big storm scenario but boundary waves can be respectable in March. About the only total fail would be if all the energy ejects and phases into a March 93 type event but cuts. Then we get rain and cold dry after and since everything gets bundled once it lifts the whole pattern could break down. If this does end up ejecting all the energy and bombing while exciting that might be our lowest snow probability scenario. Most upside though. Pick your poison.

Don’t shoot me for saying this but given the climo changes since then isn’t that likely how a March 58 redux would play out now considering the original DC proper got 6-12” of super heavy wet snow from like 3” QPF. It kept mixing with rain with temps at like 34-36 most of that storm.

We probably need to go 300 years before we’re due for anything like that again. But weather doesn’t work that way anyways. I know you’re just having fun.

March 2018 was loaded. We got unlucky not to have more than that one storm here. So many legit threats that month!

I had no doubts eventually legit threats would come from this…I just didn’t feel like arguing about it. I let you do the dirty work.

It was scoring as good as the Gfs last winter. I haven’t kept up since the latest Gfs update though.

Ggem wave 1, Gfs wave 2, we ride off into the sunset like kings.

Miller Bs during blocking gave a better chance of working in March. The shorter wavelengths make blocking more effective and allow those things to slow down and dig more.

In the chance this pattern could salvage something here…yes. On any specific threat yet no. Often with these powder keg patterns it’s not the threat we track at super long range that ends up “the one”. But I thing we have a decent chance of some snow from this.

Another storm shows up in there too…

All the whining about the Gfs and at 300 hours we simply needed this adjustment to get a snowstorm.

@JiThe Gfs pretty much does what we want, sets up a March 58 type storm, except it transfers the primary to central VA instead of off the coast. At that range it’s noise between that and a big snow.

@Ji ironically maybe the 2 most dynamic snow events ever up here happened in very late March or early April. Palm Sunday 1942 dropped close to 40” in spots up here from a norlun trough that stalled and produced 12 hours of training thunder snow among the boundary. March 58 a miller b from a primary way to our NW got stuck under a block and bombed out sending heavy bands of precip west into just cold enough air to produce an area of 30-50” in the higher terrain NW of Balt to Philly.

I know some hate late snow but that storm dropped ~50” in places around here from incredibly high QPF. Would be like those Sierra storms almost. I don’t care what time of year it is that would be cool.

I think the Gfs is closer than it’s been. Suppresses a wave around the 9th. It has more confluence in from of the wave day 11-12. It’s still not good but it’s better than it’s been imo.