psuhoffman

Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018. The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered.

The block is having an effect. @Jimight have been right. Guidance trends bad when long lead chaos shows a good solution in a bad pattern. But the opposite should be true also!

Unless it hits then I’m interested in wave 1 lol.

This…my main focus on wave 1 is how it sets up wave 2

@stormtracker even if it’s not enough to help us with wave 1, we want the less amplified out west leading to a further east amplification scenario. Because the further east wave 1 amplifies the more effective it will be at setting the table for wave 2.

The pattern is still progressing as I expected but about 48-72 hours slower. This isn’t a can kick really it’s just that the initial wave is going to be slower and more amplified. Whether it’s over the upper Midwest or off New England, that more amplified wave 1 slows down the pattern progression. So the next handoff from the pac, wave 2, looks more like the 17-20 v 14-16th. Yes I know that’s a big deal because if the time of year but it is what it is. It’s hard for me to post images where I am but if you look at the gefs and eps on March 16 you can see the next wave ejecting from the west but this time with lower heights in front of it and the SER gone. That’s why that is the better threat. Plain and simple. The first wave ejects with too much warmth left over from the previous pattern in front of it. So we can kiss the primary and any WAA snow scenarios goodbye. That leaves us needing a perfect transfer and secondary solution. How often does that work out here any time of year? Possible yes. Likely no. There are way more win scenarios with wave 2. So far no ens guidance is indicating ridging issues in front of wave 2. The fail would be if we start to see too much separation between wave 1 and 2 and we begin to see a SER start to show between those waves. As soon as that trend starts it’s game over and I’ll begin to write my book. But there is reason to believe with the pac forcing opposite what its been due to a high amp mjo 8/1 this time will be different. If it’s not I have the perfect conclusion to my novel.

That’s pretty much exactly what I would guess too.

We still have hope coming up but I think the wave after the one we’re tracking now will have the better chance.

This year would still bad within the construct of the new normal! I am not saying this year is what every winter will be like. We just had some snow last winter. 2019 wasn’t awful. We had some snow in 2018. Yea 2017/2020/2023 were total non winters. So I am not saying this winter is the new normal. But I am concerned what we’ve seen on the whole of the last 7 might be closer to a new normal. I do think this is a dowb cycle and better days are ahead. But how much better is the question. Do we return to what used to be normal. ~20” in Baltimore. ~15 in DC. I have my doubts.

No the indo pac warm pool is but again that’s not a temporary problem and is also related to…you know.

Ok so we can snow that once every 12 years we get a perfect modoki moderate Nino that couples and coincides with a -AO. Ok. And how’s our snow climo gonna look in that reality if that’s what we need to get a snowy winter?

@Ji but if you’re saying part of the issue is with a warmer pac and expanded Hadley cell (which causes that pac firehose jet btw) it’s simply too much heat directed at us upstream I agree. But that’s not a temporary longwave pattern issue. That’s what I mean. It’s not just the pac longwave configuration. It’s just so warm that almost every configuration is a fail except that incredibly rare epo pna full lat ridge combo.

The SER pumps ahead of every wave lately regardless of the pacific longwave pattern. The only time we’ve been able to suppress the SER is the rare times we’ve had an absolutely PERFECT pac longwave configuration such that we get a full latitude epo pna ridge and direct cross polar arctic air.

Before my rant I’m about to unleash let me say I’m still hopeful for the period as a whole, especially the 15-20th. But so what. If we get one snow it doesn’t change anything I’m about to say… Ridges are pumping heat way further north than historically typical. Not just the SER but that’s the one we care about most! The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north. We have had numerous perfect track rainstorms the last 5 years. We have seen cold fail to push even when we have a flow off northern Canada because even a bit of maritime mix ruins it. We only get cold with direct cross polar flow lately. The pacific, gulf, and Atlantic basin SST are on fire. The mountains in the west will encourage troughing but as soon as systems eject that feel the heat from the gulf and amplify and cut. Blocking fails more often at our latitude because the ridging is stronger than historically normal shifting the typical mid latitude response north. Patterns that used to mitigate a bad pac lately fail to even dent the SER. None of this is speculative. I’m just describing what is ACTUALLY happening. This isn’t predictive. This has already happened. It’s not change. It’s our current reality. But it seems to me there is something, that which must not be named, that can explain all of this!

This was a Nino! It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna. But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific. A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on! Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately! And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.

It’s more than that. We’ve had snowstorms from waves that came out of the southwest before. The real problem is any wave that approaches the SER goes berserk! Look at the wave on the 18z Gfs in the SW on the 16th. Tons of cold and confluence in front of it. But within 24 hours the flow ahead of that wave obliterates it and pumps a ridge to kingdom come again. I’ve pointed this out before and no one wanted to engage. But warm is just winning in a rout. Waves come out of ty west and amp to hell no matter what the pattern in front is. It’s not the pac. By day 3 the pac is almost the exact opposite with a north central pac trough. You can’t blame the pac with a ridge there then blame the pac with a trough. I’m tired of that nonsense. There is something else going on. The SER is being fed by more than just the pac and because if it any wave that comes off the pacific amplified way to our west.

The blocking is having the typical response. The wave yesterday turned southeast after cutting. There is a wave early next week that is forced to turn southeast. The trough in the west is eventually forced east. It’s just all happening way too far north for us. And this has been true of almost every block the last 5 years. Extreme blocking is supposed to be good for the mid Atlantic. Historically it’s bad for New England. But lately northern New England has been winning big with blocks and we just get colder rain.

Maybe there is no good pattern for us anymore.

6z Gfs missed South with the best threat. Good.

Good point…just because the average surface temp is 52 doesn’t mean you need a -20 airmass. I’d the avg 850 temp is near 0 a more mundane below avg airmass can work because during heavy precip the column from 700 down is typically close to isothermal. The reason avg surface temps are so high is when it’s sunny and we’re not in a cold regime temps will spike into the 60s and 70s easily in mid March. Even in a cold regime a sunny day will get into the upper 40s. But when it’s precipitating it still doesn’t take a super anomalous airmass to get cold enough to snow until closer to April. The main reason we lose snow in March is we lose marginal events (which we seem to have lost all the time anyways) and minor light events won’t work. How often do we get flush hits any time of year? But most of the time what would be a flush hit in January will still work in mid March. It’s just rare. But so is snow in January lately lol.

The plot predictions are generated by the same models so…

Pattern evolution. Mjo getting towards phase 1. Pac isn’t hostile. Cold established.

the climo difference between March 11-12 and March 15-16 isn’t that drastic. But it doesn’t matter…regardless of a degrading climo the setup has to be right. If it’s not it doesn’t matter what the date is. A good setup has a better chance March 15 than a bad setup March 10. Besides didn’t you get like 6” on March 20th in 2018?

Whenever I bring it up some folks go nuts but I guess my point is that there is SOMETHING going on and “it’s the pac” doesn’t fully cover 100% of it. I think you’re putting a different spin on my “the SER is acting like a cause more than an effect sometimes. I think it makes perfect logical sense if the heat added to the equation from the STJ off the pac combined with the gulf then Atlantic all combine to create a feedback loop that’s horrible for us. I agree on the speculation this would amp systems out west earlier. We are about to see if a high amplitude mjo phase 8/1 can overcome this feedback loop. If it can’t…oh boy.

I do still like the period after. I was never that optimistic for the lead wave. My rant is more just how we blame the pac by default even when it’s not the pac.