psuhoffman

No one even mentioned the euro gave us some Snow from a clipper on the 25 then was lining up another snow for March 1

lol It’s about potential. If we were in a Nino I might have a higher bar. But 8” has always been the bar of what I think feels like a big snow. But if it’s supposed to be a 20” storm and I get fringed with 8 that’s different so it just depends. But in general 8+ is a big snow, 4-7 is a moderate storm and 1-3 is minor and I generally meh those. But I can even enjoy a 1-3” event if it’s part of building a snowpack. Know you don’t care about that. But a 1-3” that’s gone a day later does nada for me. In every case meeting reasonable potential is more important than the number.

Spring is definitely coming. Not only does it feel warm out but the sun felt hot on my face walking to the car. Give me one legit 8”+ snowstorm and I’m ready.

I know there was a 16” snowstorm up here the first week of March 62. Must of been that storm.

Was that the Ashe Wed storm?

1996 was similar but that upper low was incredibly amplified and dove into KY/TN. We would need to see a major adjustment on that part for this to have that kind of potential.

My take, it was gonna be super close...I think anywhere east of 95 was gonna get crushed, full belt to a$$! for places NW of 95 it was close...the storm was about to go nuts but how fast...the CCB was going to have to get cranking real quick and bend more NNW then N or NE from where it ended which is not impossible, it happens in full capture scenarios but how fast it happens would be the key to places like where I am and you are. It would have to go full Jan 2000 or Feb 78 for it to work...but that run was about to be something close to that outcome honestly. The bigger issue is how likely is it to actually go nuclear not just on a model run, remmeber the UK has a tendancy to do that crazy over amp thing sometimes. It's teased us with some storms like this before...remember it had that one run of the coastal bomb in 2018 where it got a foot of snow back to Hagerstown.

To be clear I am NOT rooting for DC to get screwed...there is a path with a storm like this (unlike those progressive waves with their narrow west to east win zones) for the whole region to win...except Richmond F those guys. No seriously no ill will but unless we get some crazy Jan 2000 type full phase capture negative tilt tuck scenario its almost impossible to get a Richmond to the PA line win... But it is very possible to get a DC metro to PA line MECS result if the snow QPF max is centered near DC, places up here get higher ratios and oragraphic assistance and that's how you get a total win for almost everyone in here...again F richmond if they wanted snow they could move, kidding, unless they get snow and I don't and then not kidding.

STRONG MECS signal... I'll take the 996 just off Cape Map please.

That's the trajectory I want to see...also the jack zone...When 95 is the jack heading into the final end game us northerners are usually fine...its when the jack zone is southeast of DC that we are in trouble. That right here is exactly where I want things at this range. Now just wish the GEFS would get on board...but I'd rather have the EPS if I can only have one of em.

BTW wanted to post what I've noticed over the years in terms of trajectory of storms on guidance and when they are most and least likely to adjust north v south. The angles are just symptoms on the models of the underlying reasons but since its easier to just see the angle of precip then to analyze those factors for most people its a cheat code kind of thing. The lines above represent the angle of the precip. Green is the angle most likely to adjust north. This is typical of a wave approaching from the SW, its mature enough to get precip up into the TN valley and its also gaining some amplitude as represented by the fact the precip is gaining latitude east of the mountains some. This combo is the most likely wave to adjust northwest. Guidance most often underestimates the northward extent of precip and the ability of the wave to push the thermal boundary north as it amplifies in this type of setup. Red is not a setup that often adjusts for the better if you are north of the precip and want that "north trend". Red often indicates a wave that is not amplifying, or not amplifying enough to offset a hostile cold press on the north of it. This trajectory is most likely to adjust south actually. Even in extreme examples like Feb 5 2010, it didn't hurt us, but that is an example that adjusted south some at the end...my friend in north central NJ was expecting 6-10" on the northern fringe and got 1". That storm, even as strong as it was, made absolutely no northern adjustment the final 48 hours and if anything adjusted south some at the last minute. The two waves this year that were fails for northern MD had this trajectory also. The two March 2014 storms both trended south some from 72 hours out and they were also examples of this trajectory. January 2019 was another example. This in my experience are least likely to trend north and are more likely to sink south some at the end. The Orange line is a problem because systems tend to adjust NORTH not WEST. A west trend actually requires a faster developing system and that actually goes against model bias that often phases and begins the amplification process of a late developing east coast storm too soon. 9/10 this trajectory will not end will if you are west of the precip on guidance 72 hours out...it probably won't adjust west significantly. There are exceptions to these 3 rules...nothing is 100%, wish it was that easy...Jan 2000 is a great example that broke the orange line rule. But these are generally when we can expect a north v a south trend MOST often based on the trajectory, which again is a cheat to factors causing that trajectory which make a north v south adjustement on guidance more or less likely.

I don't think we are worried about that area...I think those of us on the NW fringes of this region are the ones worried that it might do exactly that again. lol I'm not overly worried YET, but if in another day or two its still showing what it is now...

Most of MD just south or east of me didn't get much from that. There is a dead zone in northeast MD that's really bad this year WRT climo, worse then the typical "dead zones" I can remember in recent years. But we have a month of snow season left to correct that...I am kind of expecting something to come along to even it out some. Not necessarily totally even out, because places SE of us probably get some more snow also...but if we get one more storm and its like the GGEM or GFS show right now...that would be just crazy for a seasonal snowfall pattern. Might be the worse screw job NE MD has ever had honestly if it went down that way.

It's really only been 2 storms that jacked the same place...which isn't crazy for random chance. But a 3rd in a row? If we get 3 major storms this year and each has the exact same jack area...and its an unusual one at that given climo...that would be a first in my memory, maybe I'm forgetting a season that happened

name me one winter where every major storm jacked the same spot? I can't think of any! Even years where I felt I did worse WRT to climo than places to my SE there was at least more variance then this.

I would much rather nothing then that At least I wouldn't waste time tracking nothing...but if I waste a week tracking and that is the end result... like I said anything cute and furry better hide

I dunno but it's almost unprecedented for the lower eastern shore to get more snow than me, there have been some seasons like this where I only get a little more then them...but if we were to get one more storm this season and it jacks that area again and fringes us...it would be something that has NEVER happened before in terms of a seasonal outcome. It's getting beyond just "seasonal trend" into the freaky unprecendented getting 5 heads in a row kinda territory.

depends... but I doubt anyone in MD NW of 95 wants to see any model run that shows the snow SE of DC like that. Sorry but its kinda traumatic at this point. I would rather see a storm with precip type issues right now, both given this setup and given how this season has gone.

Every cute furry woodland creature better stay the F away from me if we get one more snowstorm with a jack SE of 95.

yea this is what I mean in my last post...the GFS is a mess with that upper feature and stretches it out which deamplifies the flow under it. If it looks more like the Euro/GGEM I think we get a bigger storm.

It has a LOT more potential...look at the upper low to our NW...on the GFS is strung out and diffuse west to east over the top. That causes it to act more as a disruptor and blocking force rather than digging in and amplifying the wave. If that were to consolidate more around either lobe up there...preferable the further west one, that's how last nights Euro got it done...but either...get a more consolidated upper low that can amplify and cause ridging in front of it rather than stretch out and deamplify the flow...this would end up a bigger storm.

Maybe, but we are heading into the range where models have actually locked in on a general solution close to what the end result was. Obviously there will be some details that change but almost every event this year something close to the final outcome started to show across guidance around 140-150 hours out, then only fairly minor wobbles happened from then on it. I don't mind if they start to lock in on a mid atlantic MECS now...were not day 10+ anymore.

You know, NYC hated the 80s...and looking at the local snowfall stats for up here using the Westminster and Hanover COOP data... it was a worse decade up here compared to avg than in DC, kind of similar to this year. Not saying the 80's were awful, but there were a lot of winters in the 80's where DC and up here had almost the same snowfall totals which is rare otherwise considering I average more than double the snowfall...but it happened like 4 times that decade and even the years I had a lot more...none were crazy more like 2021 or 2014 when I got like 50 or 70 inches more than DC lol. There might be a lot to this...

@Ji this is kinda funny because over the last 5 years I've been the champion of how much warming is hurting our snow climo...and now this year I am defending against some who are acting like "we should be getting 100" of snow and its a horrible sign we aren't" but let me make the case why I DON'T see the need to panic over "wasting" this year... First of all we have not "wasted" it...we did get snow and we got weeks of snow on the ground and I think we are not done at all...but this is why I don't see this as a wasted year for a big snowfall result IAD has had 25"+ only 15 times in the last 50 years. Here is the breakdown 9 Nino years, 5 enso neutral, 1 Nina 1 time...once. one more than none, has IAD had 25" in a la nina in the last 50 years. And that one unicorn year 1996 had crazy blocking, not just for a few weeks but through most of winter...and a rare strongly positive PDO in a cold enso. No other cold enso years had that combo. And we don't have that this year so expecting that kind of anomaly again is foolish imo. The PDO came in around -1 for January, way better and I do see signs it may be flipping its base state some, maybe not to a positive cycle, but out of the mini super negative cycle we were in, those tend to run in 4-7 year patterns and we are due for that ish to end. But we are still in a negative PDO so this was not the setup for a blockbuster rare non nino big snowfall winter. It would have been unprecedented actually as in NEVER happened before, to get a cold enso -PDO blockbuster snowfall winter. Also, if we look at region wide true blockbuster winters, which I'll define as years that IAD and BWI got 30" and DCA got 20", we've only had 8 of those in the last 50 years. 8 in 50 years....that's how rare what you're asking for is, a region wide big snowfall year. Everything has to be right...not just a decently cold winter...we need the storm track, juiced up STJ, blocking...the whole works and then we still need to get lucky on top of that. It's super rare. This year we are lacking some factors all those others had. Only 1996 was a cold enso on that list and it had an anomalous PDO that offset the cold enso. We don't have that this year. I see getting a near normal to slightly above normal snowfall winter in most places as a win, its near the top of what the results were in similar winters. Actually if we look at cold enso with a -PDO, which eliminates 1996 and 2006, there is a good chance this ends up the snowiest winter of the last 50 years in that subset if we an just get one more good snowstorm for places NW of 95.

I'd rather it be centered there then right on top of us... the second issue is more cold enso common and why I keep saying in general not specific to any one setup, our high end on any given storm is probably high SECS to MECS and not HECS type events. We just don't typically get the juiced up amplified STJ waves that can bully their way across and attack the NS flow in cold enso seasons. We need more of the other variables to go our way, and even then storms tend to max out at MECS not HECS even if everything does go our way.