psuhoffman

Oh I'll read, probably way too much, on anything remotely related to this...actually am reading it now, just didn't notice the link.

I remember that I was pretty excited about 2002/3 pretty early on in the fall that year. There were quite a few signs that the enso was going to continue to evolve into one centered fairly far west, but this year I am more cautious because of the fact the north pac basin and atlantic are also on fire and I am just not sure what all that heat is going to do to the pattern.

I just added this to my post above, I wasn't even aware there was a blog link, I saw the map and thought the text above was just the headline... sorry that was my mistake and caused me to take the map out of context, which was again my mistake.

My comment was on the analog map you posted not the blog. And it wasn't meant as a critique of you, the best SST analogs often are useless in a vacuum since we've had radically different outcomes from some similar enso events. I wasn't saying your forecast is useless...just that list of enso analogs by itself is, in terms of predicting snowfall here which is what 99% reading this care about. ETA: I honestly wasn't even aware there was a blog link attached to that, I saw the map and thought the text above was just the headline.

I don't think this will happen...at least not 100%, but if we do get a canonical nino pattern and its simply too warm all the time and we get perfect track rainstorm after rainstorm...then at least we know.

That's pretty useless as a seasonal predictive tool since it includes some of our snowiest and least snowy winters lol

PAC base state FTL

I replied to your comment on twitter, but I agree with Ken, JB changed significantly from back when they worked together. I actually had some personal correspondence with JB back when I was a meteorology student at PSU. I can't say if he has changed personally, I never had a negative interaction with him personally, he was always friendly, willing to answer questions and help me out. My issues with him are not personal in any way, he was never anything but nice to me. But, over the years, I disagree with your assessment that he hasn't changed much. Back in the early 2000's, yes JB already has a snow bias and a tendency to gravitate towards the extreme, but his forecasts and blog posts were mostly grounded in sound reasonable science, and he rarely went off on total political driven rants. But over the years that has changed, his posts are more and more political driven, he seems angry at times which was never his MO back in the day, and his forecasts often seem to be based more on some crazy unproven theory in a quest to justify his political stance rather than sound meteorology. In short he has gone way off the deep end. And it must be extra difficult for those who knew him personally before he got this way.

lots of underwater volcanoes

Hope you're right Chuck.

But if it get's displaced too far east it simply floods N Amer with pac puke

The biggest problem is...with as bad as things have been lately, and the hope the nino has given, if this ends up being a dud its going to get really really really ugly in here.

We're playing with fire IMO. Both in a good and bad way. If we can get a basin wide that is better than east based. It's a sliding scale of course and other factors will come into play...but the results of basin wide events are on the whole better than purely east based. Typically basin wide events have had variance with some very warm periods but also some periods favorable for snow. I think DC underperformed a bit in 2016. There were several other opportunities for a big snow in January, February and March that winter but only the one worked out. It was THE ONE...but still it could have had more than one hit with some luck. But the warm periods were also crazy torches. However, if we get a strong central based nino I do worry given the current extremely warm background base state... if the warmth just overwhelms everything.

The nino is a little more east based looking than I would prefer right now...

He will get tired of it when people stop paying for it.

The best was that year he used the snowfall at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA.

His verification might be much lower but I bet his bank account is much higher!

If it snows a lot I get to enjoy the winter. If it’s another torch snowless winter the “it’s not actually snowing less, your eyes don’t work and you can’t math” crew have to shut up. Win either way.

My house is mostly ok. Some minor roof damage. Pool is wrecked though. Wind threw a glass table from the patch into it and the glass ended up shattered in the pool. Lost some big trees. I’m going to have to take down what’s left of the big tree next to the house in the back. It’s too damaged. That was our shade. But all in all lucky. There are some houses in much worse shape that I saw.

I was stuck on 30 near Cape Horn as it passed. It was bad. Trees came down around me. I pulled into the little lot by the pond next to the middle school. It lifted up the Portable restroom that’s there and threw it. A tree came down next to my car. Luckily nothing hit my car. Town is a mess right now. Just got the kids. Couldn’t tell if it was straight line or tornado. Happened too fast and was raining too hard. But I heard police confirmed a tornado on the ground near the PA line after it passed us. ETA: sky had that eerie green look right before all hell broke lose

I keep seeing him commenting that CO2 cannot warm the oceans because it can’t penetrate… whatever.

Does JB really not understand how endothermic processes work?

We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see.

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice.