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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    Not sure what happened with his numbers for 1987 but the gist of that chart is accurate and this did factor into my seasonal expectations. Note almost all of those years made it into my analogs, either as a primary or a historical season I mentioned for reference. Furthermore, there is a pretty good explanation for the duds. 1998 went full super nino, the north pac low went ape, displaced further east and directed the pac firehose right into the CONUS and obliterated any and all cold from all of N American. I highly doubt that happens here given the much weaker enso forcing we are seeing. 1977 and 1969 I would take my chances on a repeat again and again. Both featured a solid 6 week period with a damn near perfect h5 pattern. In the case of 1977 it was just frigid arctic cold but dry. In the case of 1969 several coastal storms failed to reach potential for our area. There were some secondary jumps, close misses...just back luck. Is it possible things could go down that way again, sure, but given a repeat of the same general patterns I would expect better results most likely. This was just one more supporting piece of evidence why I went big on my winter forecast.
  2. psuhoffman
    The correlation/causation is that we usually need a cold winter to have a snowy one. And typically if it’s going to be cold in general we get at least enough cold early for the colder parts of this forum to get snow early. There are other ways to get at the same predictive data. We could likely find a temperature marker at DC, like if DC doesn’t have x amount of days below X temp by x date…and find the same correlation. It just doesn’t work with snow at DC because they are often too warm until later even in colder better winters.
  3. psuhoffman
    A lot more than 1% seem to argue with basic climo stats when I post them… We could go back and forth but let me simplify this. Some find the climo discussion compelling. Therefore it is going to happen. Those that don’t find it compelling, or find it emotionally upsetting, can choose not to engage in it. Yes you will have to see it, oh well. We all have to see lots of things we would rather not day to day. Just move along. BTW, I find the discussion compelling, I do not find the discussion about the discussion compelling. Have you considered it’s the complaining about the climo discussion that takes to to another level and ends up taking over the thread. We had a handful of posts about what the winter could tell us about the future…then we have had twice as many posts about whether to have the discussion and why it’s disturbing and blah blah blah. So now this has taken over the thread instead of it being a few posts and move along.
  4. psuhoffman
    Things look fine Imo. I’m just engaging in speculation wrt what the outcome of this season could mean in the larger picture. I am in no means second guessing my expectations yet.
  5. psuhoffman
    Talking about it won’t affect the outcome.
  6. psuhoffman
    It’s just a conversation. I find it an interesting one. It’s fun to speculate sometimes. Have articulate scientific debate.
  7. psuhoffman
    98 was a super Nino with a vortex crashing western Canada flooding the pac firehose into the conus. That’s an important piece of info. If we go super Nino and fail that way that’s another story. Details matter.
  8. psuhoffman
    It’s about probabilities over time. It’s actually common in a nina to get progressive waves that miss 95 west in a colder period. Nina’s are not all wall to wall torches. There are actually 2 types and the ones with a poleward pac ridge are colder ones but still frustrating because they are still progressive patterns with low probabilities of big snow. Those patterns that provided some snow to the beaches were never likely to produce an above normal snowfall winter on the whole for DC or Baltimore. That was the typical favored outcome. Similar to 2022. Yea a couple of those progressive waves hit, some others missed, DC got some snow, but that was never going to be a good snowfall winter. Mediocre was the upward limit. Over time it were stuck in year after year where the goal posts are “this is going to really suck” like 2017, 2020, 2023 and the high end is “if we get lucky with some progressive waves maybe we can eek to a mediocre year” like 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022…over the long term out snowfall average is going to plummet. I don’t see the last 7 years as bad luck. It’s been the most likely outcome given the probabilities over that period.
  9. psuhoffman
    First off I think this is moot as I’m expecting a lot of snow. But this would be 2 ninos. Everyone forgets 2019 because “it didn’t act like a Nino”. Plus it’s been 2 neutral and 3 Nino winters that were dreg also! Neutrals aren’t supposed to be all awful. And even Nina’s historically 1/4 are a fluke snowy winter. The fact we got 5 neutral/Nino winters in a row all awful starts to add evidence Imo. Add in 2 ninos…and I’m calling it. Not saying it means we can never ever get a 40” winter again. Or an hecs. Just…that our climate has changed more radically than the head in the sand brigade want to admit and both those things will be much more rare. Basically it would mean the last 7 years wasn’t a fluke or a bad cycle but perhaps just the new reality. If you want to wait another 15 years to get maybe 2-3 more ninos to have sufficient data to say that with statistical significance fine but enough writing would be on the wall for me!
  10. psuhoffman
    But in that case doesn’t it depend on HOW we miss. If one big storm gets suppressed and crushes just south of us, and another barely misses a phase or we get some Dec 2010 type BS nonsense I think it’s fair to say it was bad luck. But if we have a near to slightly above normal snowfall winter and the reason it wasn’t better was temps, some perfect track storms that produced mixed results instead of a big snow, then imo we have the answer.
  11. psuhoffman
    Come on. That’s mostly just details emerging as the lead time shortens. There was never enough antecedent cold for that wave to be a legit snow threat.
  12. psuhoffman
    I have a nasty stomach bug so let’s not tempt fate
  13. psuhoffman
    If we fail this year because we get a canonical Nino longwave pattern and it’s just too warm…or because even a relatively strong Nino is no longer enough to break the pacific base state, I don’t want to hear anymore “but this or that” crap. Then we KNOW. I am banking that we can still win (just less often) but this is it. If we can’t win with this years enso/qbo then shut the lights. So either way this winter will be very productive.
  14. psuhoffman
    There’s an amped signal for a guaranteed vodka pac puke base state regime…….climate change
  15. psuhoffman
    Does it send a signal to your brain signaling the frustration due to the signal.
  16. psuhoffman
    I haven’t drilled down to that level.
  17. psuhoffman
    I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010.
  18. psuhoffman
  19. psuhoffman
    I saw, might head to Okemo instead. And no its not "worth it" just to ski but I have new equipment and I might have to make custom modifications but I want to test everything out and see and not waste time on a legit ski weekend doing that.
  20. psuhoffman
    We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night!
  21. psuhoffman
    BWI: 42" DCA: 32" IAD: 43" RIC: 20" LYC: 31"
  22. psuhoffman
    This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs. Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now.
  23. psuhoffman
    He said moderate Nino's. 2018 was weak (especially if you factor in the current PDO cycle muting enso which in that case muted the weak nino into behaving like a neutral winter in a -PDO regime) 2015 was a super nino 2014 was weak.
  24. psuhoffman
    I do think the odds of a big hit are increased this year...but it's unlikely to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2016. This is not behaving like a super nino. I am hesitant to drill down too much into details though, snow can be a bit fluky to begin with... but my expectation is several snow events with 1 or 2 being significant. We can get to my numbers either though getting lucky with a couple extra moderate hits...or one of the hits being a HECS level event. Either is acceptable. I could also bust high if we get unlucky and none reach max potential and we have a few close misses.
  25. psuhoffman
    65-66 would have been very high on my list had I included older data. As it was I felt I had enough to get the gist without needing to go way back. Including 1958 and 1966 wouldn’t have changed the forecast significantly.
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