psuhoffman

https://x.com/lopwx/status/1729605525187309993?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

https://x.com/jfd118/status/1729685709911384282?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

It is, it ended 9 months ago!

But do I get my inch?

There are different discussions going on here. And as @brooklynwx99 pointed out, it's not unexpected for the current imperfections in the pacific to be a big problem in late November or early December. This is not a reason for panic yet. Almost all of our early season snowstorms in the last 20 years have come via a EPO/PNA ridge combo that allows anomalously cold air to discharge into the east. We don't have that. But two things can be true. I wanted to point out that the current pacific look that many are calling bad is actually one that has produced some of our biggest snowstorms throughout history. I am not worried that it is not working right now. If we get this look in January and February and it too warm, that is a problem. Two different things. @CAPE is correct that there are other avenues to just getting "some snow" around here than the canonical "OMG LOOK AT THAT H5" reds and blues in all the right places look. Yes I would prefer 20" of snow but I enjoy any and all snow. But... again two things can be true... if the single most likely path to snowstorms around here doesn't work, that is a big problem, regardless of whether we can still get some snow through other less canonical means. And the pattern I am describing is not just a KU thing. We have had MANY 3-6" snowstorms where something didn't go exactly perfectly from those patterns also. Basically in a nutshell what I am pointing out is the pattern that is the most conducive to producing a favorable storm track for snowstorms here is actually NOT the same as the one that produces our coldest airmasses. There are some rare cases where the two can overlap but that isn't the most common. It's not a good thing if the pattern that produces the track we need for storms is no longer cold enough to produce snow. We have discussed that the next nino would be a good test case for that. Right now is way too early to make conclusions on that. And I am on the record expecting it can still work, I've called for above normal snow. But I don't want to hear "this pattern is just no good" if its not working in January and February. That pattern has been our best most reliable snow producer over the years, losing that as a path to snow would be devastating out our snow climo. I highly doubt that is true yet.

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns.

It can be, we’ve had nino years that were even more ideal in that regard, 2002-3 for example, and they can be colder. But the narrative here is basically that we have to toss all Nina’s and neutral winters now…super nino and extremely east based ninos aren’t good, and now we’re going to have to toss even more favorable ninos unless the north pac vortex sets up exactly 100% perfectly? I didn’t mean this is a test case for can it snow ever. I know given the right list of variables coinciding we can still get a lot of snow. But how likely is it? The test I mean is can we still EASILY win in a pattern that requires domestic cold absent needing 500 things to be perfect.

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off. I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.

That has been true the last 15 years or so...the only way we have ever had snow before January recently is if the pacific is pretty much perfect. Almost every snow before January lately has come from a monster EPA/PNA combo ridge that floods a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern US. But going back further that was not true. Here is an example of a major mid November snow from a convoluted mediocre pattern. And I could pull up dozens of examples of November and early December snows from the past where the pacific was not perfect. So in the recent past you are correct...my point is it wasn't always impossible to get snow early without a perfect pacific.

I am still mostly optimistic things are on track... At this early stage by far the most important thing IMO is seeing a favorable AO. IMO the most likely way this season fails is if we don't get cooperation in that regard. It's really difficult to have a -AO nino and totally fail. Early season blocking during a nino is also a good sign of a -AO winter. So right now the most important thing is that we are seeing signs the high latitudes should be cooperative this year. On the less optimistic side, it is frustrating that we continue to see a reality where we need everything to be damn near perfect for it to be cold enough to snow. Even when things are more good than bad it seems its just not even close. Yea the pacific isnt good, but its not a -5PNA or anything...a really strong blocking regime SHOULD historically be able to help with a mediocre to slightly bad pacific. But lately I see a lot of "well this or that one thing isnt totally perfect so of course we have no shot". How often is EVERYTHING going to be 100% perfect? Its not supposed to be that hard. ANd yes its early, but we have had years where a significant portion of our snow came in December. We don't always get to pick when the pattern gets right. Also, regarding the current cold right now...its useless and irrelevant to a "is it cold enough to snow". It doesn't matter if it gets cold on the NW flow behind a cold front or storm. Of course it can get cold in that scenario. But other than some flurries or maybe a clipper if we get lucky that is not relevant to our chances of getting an actual snowstorm. We need a pattern where cold can settle in with a depth that can resist warming during the return flow ahead of the next wave for it to actually be useful. Those last 2 factors aside it's too early to panic yet. Yes its ok to be frustrated given the evidence piling up the last few years... it's natural to have a "here we go again" feeling...but its REALLY EARLY and the pattern is more favorable than its been overall going into the last few winters... I am giving it a few more weeks before I start to actually worry too much.

Some of us aren’t going to make it

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1728864083976298602?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

Two things can be true. 1)It can still snow if we get the right pattern 2) it’s getting harder to snow as it warms and marginal setups that used to work do not anymore. The hostile cycle of the pacific we’ve been in is very likely MORE to blame for our snow drought the last 7 years. Even had the climate not warmed the last 7 years were not going to be a good period given the pacific mean long wave pattern. But, we’ve had -pdo cycles before and they weren’t as bad in a colder base state. The warming is making bad worse. Keep in mind as we lose marginal events my early season snow stats might become obsolete since most of those first 1” storms even up here were very marginal. We might just have to wait deeper into winter even in a good pattern to get snow. Of course that will limit and mute a snowy season some. But it doesn’t mean it won’t snow, just maybe we lose an early season marginal threat. We might also gain a threat mid season when added heat COULD even be a net benefit in some setups. There are lots of variables to this. Terp did a great job quantifying this as best as possible given current evidence and data. But the two truths remain. It can still snow. It is snowing less.

I can agree to just ignore certain people/posts this year if yall can!

That’s my read of what he is talking about also but I disagree with his implied conclusion. sometimes that fact matters more/less. If we were in a hostile La Niña pattern an “in situ” more locally induced -nao would be less likely to help or persist. It would be quickly destructively interfered with. But in a nino these in situ naos can be repetitive and productive because the long wave pattern can constructively enhance them. It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state.

It fits the pattern progression in the analogs from my winter forecast so why wouldn’t I. Doesn’t guarantee anything yet but things are going according to plan so far.

That’s a different issue

His original take is there but we don’t want people being JB type irrational stubborn in the face of changing information either. Better late than never.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1727736224155136226?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw and suddenly Webbers composites would seem to support my winter forecast lol

@bluewave wrt getting a colder/snowier winter in the east, there was a lot of speculation that the current pac base state worked to mute the weaker 2019 nino. But now under the same pac conditions some are speculating this nino will be too strong. I’ve heard the excuse for 7 years “we’ve been stuck in a Nina pattern” for why it’s been mostly a snowless torch. But we did have one weak nino and now a strong and now some of chatter is why it still won’t help. So just to play devils advocate…assuming this pacific base state is somewhat permanent (at least for the foreseeable future) what exactly would you want to see to predict a cold snowy winter?

Hell hath frozen over https://x.com/webberweather/status/1727402563329548471?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I swear I don’t want to see another Eagles lineman with a clean shot try to arm tackle Mahomes. Just launch into him and obliterate him.

Of course its possible...but we have seen no objective evidence of that yet. Maybe that is simply because all of our winters lately have been crap so there are no test cases. Maybe we start to see examples where the whole area torches early and still recovers to have a snowy winter but until that happens...I would simply root for cold/snow early.

A long range mean h5 ensemble plot is not very useful for predicting the exact high temperature or frontal boundary location on a specific day. The guidance was way more right than wrong about the longwave pattern and that is what the goal should be on a day 10 ensemble mean.

The 4" plus dataset is likely skewed by the fact some of those events were huge...Like Dec 2009! The other categories have an upward range limit while that category does not.