psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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there is an ignore feature
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He is flirting with becoming a clown in the opposite way as JB
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Yea I wasn't going to bother to respond but that is no torch... with an active STJ tracking under the high pressure dome in Canada...it's more like a Seattle winter type temp profile, not cold enough for snow but definitely not something we would remember as a torch. Once the vortex gets to the Aleutians the temp profile over the CONUS will start to cool. Still wont have arctic air...but once the pac puke firehose is directed well west of us it will allow some continental air to get mixed into the equation and we should be able to get a cold enough profile domestically to work with. At least that's my plan and I'm sticking too it.
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base builder for snowshow WV
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There was another similar notable storm in April of 2000. Same setup, wave developed long a strong cold front after a lot of rain. I think that one dropped 2-3" in this area...was like 6-12" up in northeast PA up through NY State.
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If my memory is correct it was on a Saturday, I think around the 10th or something... I had a soccer game earlier that day and it was like 65 degrees...then we had some heavy rain in the afternoon which turned to snow in the evening. I got about an inch in Herndon VA. Places NW got a bit more. It was a wave along a cold front. There was another storm a few days later around Veterans Day that was a more typical coastal but simply too warm for snow. It was a miserable cold rain that mixed with snow at times in Northern VA, I think places like where I am now got some accumulation and were snow/ice from that storm also.
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The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in November 1995.
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NO it gives me a half inch more... it matters. IT Fing MATTERS!!!!
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It's too early to freak out about that...you're not wrong about what I said but that was when we were seeing this in January/February. It's hard to overcome pac puke in December. You're not wrong but I do think if that projection is correct wrt not even seeing snow at like 3-4k feet in the Apps that indicative of a warmer climate. I can remember some December high elevation snows in the Apps in pac puke crap airmasses...but this is a margins thing and in no way indicates we can't get snow here later in winter...but it is somewhat indicative of how much harder its becoming to get snow early in the season, even at higher elevations.
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I know we want to rush the progression because Xmas is right there…but that’s just too early on the pattern evolution probably. It’s not impossible we get some snow around Xmas if we get lucky but that’s really early for this process. Step 1 is getting the vortex in Canada to retrograde west. Once it gets off the coast we will start to see cold press in the US. But step two is to get that Atlantic ridge to retrograde and lift into the nao domain. That’s going to take some wave breaking probably and that usually means some rainstorms along the way. That’s probably a few days away from the start of a really good pattern.
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Soil temps sun angle the barometer in Pittsburgh now we have to worry about the temp 1500 miles away. it’s always gonna be something.
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Thanks. But I swear we had this conversation earlier today…
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And the op gfs was a very good look at the end headed into the holiday week!
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I actually do get fringed regularly up here...but in a more typical season it just doesn't matter because there are several more storms where up here gets significantly more and by the end of the season no one remembers that one time DC beat me. It's just rare to get a season where there is like only one big storm and that happens to fringe up here.
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I think there was a post frontal snow event in January 2019. There was also one that put down a few inches up here sometime in like 2017 or 2018. It's been a while...probably mostly because its simply been a while without us getting much snow at all from ANY type of storm...so
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It's not super common but there have been numerous anafront snow events over the years. They probably actually produce accumulating snow like once every few years. They aren't typically events we remember though since they are never going to be some 6" plus event...we are talking 1-3" type things...sometimes up here and in the mountains they can be 3-5" type deals...but that have a pretty low ceiling in terms of potential. It requires there to be a wave along the front that stalls the progress allowing the cold to catch up to the precip.
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Yes, the pattern the seasonal and monthly models have forecasted for a while is now starting to show at the very end of the ensemble guidance. The last step after that would be for wave breaking to help the western Atl ridge to migrate to the NAO domain once the TPV has vacated and then we are in business.
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Ideally we would like to see it retro a bit further west...but by day 15 its already not far off from the snowy analogs to this winter. Below are the snowy periods from 3 of the analogs. 1966 1964 1987
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It doesn't have to retrograde much to be in a position that has worked just fine in the past. We got 2 HECS during this... And look at our source regions during that period...its torched. Those storms all came from domestic cold with a perfect STJ storm track while Canada was mild. At day 10 the guidance even indicated there would be temperature issues for both storms... at one point the GFS showed a perfect track slop storm when it was still over a week out. It adjusted to be a little colder as it got closer...same as 2016, remember when at day 10 the euro and GFS has temp issues with that storm also despite a perfect track. Now this equation won't work in December. It used to, if you go back before the 1980's there are examples of December snowstorms without a perfect pacific. But accepting those days are gone...in the last 30 years pretty much every Pre Xmas snowstorm has come via a perfectly placed EPO/PNA combo ridge. But I wanted to point out that later in winter that look has and should work...but as I said earlier, while its worked and that look has been responsible for our snowiest periods in history...it was never all that cold, worked with domestic home grown cold absent any true arctic air, and leaves very little wiggle room to still work if you warm the whole profile very much. I have bet my winter forecast on this equation still working...that we have not yet reached the point where warming has made domestic cold no longer an option for snow. Let's hope that is correct.
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Almost all the NWP guidance looks pretty darn sweet for the second half of winter, at least. The only small bit of reservation I have left is that guidance showed this look consistently in 2019 but the pacific remained stubborn and it never became a reality. It was constantly a day 10+ tease. I will feel a lot better when we start to see the pacific actually respond to the +enso and it's not just on super long range guidance. Obviously that is not an issue yet as it's still too soon but I will be nervous if we start to see the evolution that is currently showing up around Dec 20th start to get can kicked.
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Unless there are significant changes it will be very difficult for anything to start as snow given the North Atlantic setup. But it could be the type of setup where we could get some snow on the back end if things were to evolve in our favor.
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What I said wasn’t positive or negative. Just facts.
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Terpeast was transparent with his methodology and the limitations. It’s very valid to point out that the entire storm track could be altered. But it’s impossible to assess that through data analysis. We would need a very sophisticated simulation. However I would argue it’s highly unlikely such changes would end up being a net positive simply because the net impact of warming overall would be to adjust everything north on the whole and average snow decreases as you go south of us.
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I suspected that Feb 66 storm would be a loss. Wasn’t the Feb 87 also a complete loss? If so it’s slightly disturbing that 2 of the biggest snows in 2 of the best analogs would be rain now! That does make me nervous given my ambitious forecast. But I also figured maybe other storms end up compensating. Of course it has to be cold enough at some point for that to work lol. But this highlights my biggest fear. That historically our snowiest patterns often weren’t really that cold. Cold smoke 8”+ snowstorms are not very common. As we continue to warm we’re flirting with disaster because we don’t have much margin left for what is our best snowfall producing long wave patterns to still be viable in DC. ETA: yes some storms under the right conditions will get enhanced but over time they would become fewer and further between until it’s almost irrelevant that once every very long while we get some crazy blizzard. That’s like NC used to be. Every so often they get some big snow but who cares they would go years between any significant snow. No self respecting snow weenie would live there.
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I'll be ready
