psuhoffman

RR is gonna have a field day

I know this is lols but I wouldn’t be shocked if places closer to the cities get 1-3” of one of these bands the meso models keep hinting at actually sets up.

Latest HRRR has me at 6” and still snowing when it ends. Ok…

I don’t think it matters much. By midnight places west of the fall line are cold enough above the boundary layer to support snow. But the surface is still torched. The exact time of the flip seems partially dependent on when heavy precip arrives. Some runs have a lull between waves and the flip is delayed. But these tend to be the more amplified solutions and they end to with more precip later when the boundary has cooled and that’s better. The runs that flip sooner are more progressive and end the precip earlier.

Not very but it’s better to be trending colder v warmer.

I’m concerned the sonic waves could disrupt the hemispheric energies necessary for the propagation of the thermal boundary. Why hasn’t it changed over yet? Radar looks like crap. I can see the back edge.

HRRR looks the same wrt surface. Fv3 actually is 1-2 degrees colder at Winchester overnight. Around 34-35 during the snow. The NAMs went warmer because they totally lost the precipice out west. The NAM went less amplified and shifted the precip out before the cold gets there so you’re warmer. But if the NAM is correct what’s it matter since you miss all the precip from the wave behind the front anyways.

Are you worried about your 2m soil temps?

I assume you mean the WRF-FV3? I noticed it went the other way v the NAM. Guess we will know soon when the global come in if the NAM was just a hiccup. NAMs are jumpy as F and cause so many early panics because they come out first each suite, that’s kinda unfortunate. If they came out last we would ignore all their tangents.

Best run yet. 10-1 even the snow depth one is nice

Ji is right...but to play devils advocate...you choose which maps to use...most of the guidance on wxbell has snow depth maps, kuchera and 10-1. You know which ones are more likely given the situation. If you're using a 10-1 map for some light snow event with marginal temps...that isn't the maps fault that is user error.

Almost all my “predictions” are just me pointing out probabilities based on data analysis of history. “What happened when we were previously in this same situation” type stuff. Sometimes it helps identity when we’re likely to get snow. Lately it’s mostly identified when we’re fooked. But it’s just math. Anyone could do it.

If I recall someone on here knew it was coming…

If the banding being shown does materialize I think a compromise between the Kuchera and the depth maps are more likely.

true but 1) that was like 4 upgrades ago. 2) it was a major hiccup but it was like 60 hours about I think and it corrected immediately next run. One hiccup out of 8 days of runs is to be expected.

FWIW sref probabilities of 1” increased significantly

EPS thinks it’s a pretty good bet

It’s been a rock for 6 consecutive runs now. With the exception of random noise run to run (which everyone freaks out over if some meso band shifts 5 miles and changes their yards output) it’s been as locked in as I’ve ever seen. Impressive if it ends up nailing this. And worth noting next time we’re in this situation. All other guidance has had some hiccup runs in the last 36 hours.

If you have access look at the last run of the weeklies and GEFS ext at 360 and then go back day to day about 10 days and see what it looked like before and how it slowly degraded over time. You can do that with hour 300 also. IMO it’s definitely can kicking. It’s not so much on the pac side although it has slowed the retrogression some but more the Atlantic that’s taking longer to get right. But I feel like everyone also is ignoring this part of my post “I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good.” For whatever reason whenever I make a nuanced post it feels like the positives get ignored and the negatives are all anyone sees. I’m not alarmed by this at all yet. I was just acknowledging (since someone asked earlier) that the pattern progression has slowed on guidance.

It does. I liked the end of today’s EPS. It was a notable positive shift from 0z which the weeklies are based on. So there is that. As I said I’m not worried at all YET but for full disclosure there has been can kicking this last week. That was my only point not trying to start panic, although it seems anytime I make an analytical point that doesn’t imply 1996 or 2010 is imminent that’s what tends to happen.

Now that I look closer at the soundings it’s a legit possibility. Doesn’t necessarily mean anything wrt accumulations. Boundary temps are still an issue.

Unfortunately there has been significant can kicking going on. This was the week leading up to New Years 6 days ago on the euro weeklies. and now I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good. But the pattern change has been getting pushed back for a week now. It’s been sitting just outside the ensembles on the gfs and euro extended for like 8 days and failed to progress. If this doesn’t change in about 5 days then I’ll start to get concerned. 2019 guidance did this regularly. At range it wanted to evolve to a canonical nino look in error. By next week I’d like evidence this time is different. I think it is but I’ll feel a lot better when it’s progressing in real time and not just a long range fantasy.

That’s kinda what inspired me to make that comment.

can we get one winter where the 90% on the gefs hits every storm?

I’m legit curious what NWS and NCEP prefer when making short range forecasts. But honestly given the inconsistency of all high res (especially the NAMs) I tend to still weight the GFS/Euro for giving me the general Synoptics then use common sense and the high res to get an idea what the meso scale features will look like. But I apply those meso features to the GFS/Euros larger synoptic representation. I don’t trust the high res models at all for picking up trends wrt the larger features.