psuhoffman

This was another case where there was a visible difference between my house and Ebb Valley when I dropped the kids off. Not as pronounced as Dec 2020 when I had 3” up here and only a coating down there but it was about 1” difference. ~250 ft additional elevation makes a difference in these super marginal events.

I’ll run the numbers later. Going back to sleep for a couple hours.

4am update 32 degrees still light to moderate snow. Had just under 4”

Grass starting to cave

It’s coming down pretty good now.

Down to 33, just need rates to pick up. Precip is too light.

34 all snow

I look down on him…literally. He is like 200 feet below me in the valley between my ridge and the town proper of Manchester which is also kind of on a ridge.

You type a lot in your sleep

32 on top of cotoctin now. That’s the place to be for this one.

There is some slushy flakes mixed in but it’s not coming down that hard. If it was it would flip to snow.

I couldn’t be sure so I pulled the car out to see on the windshield, can confirm there are some slush bombs mixed in. Change over seems eminent.

Down to 36

The reason for the sight downtrend this afternoon was a slight change in the evolution of the system. Earlier runs had focused more on a trailing band that comes through around 3-5am. More recent runs are keying more on a band ahead of that which comes through between 11pm and 1am west to east. The problem is that’s too soon. Boundary layer is still torched. So less precip is falling towards the end when it’s actually cold enough.

down to 43 here now.

On the HRRR it’s partly because it’s bringing in the best banding earlier before it gets cold enough to do much good.

Just to clarify 1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great. 2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation.

I think our definition of wall to wall winter is different. I don’t mean it snows the whole winter. But to me I was thinking a majority (not all) of the winter is spent in a pattern where it can snow and there are multiple events spread out. Not just one or two flukes. 2008-10 was definitely a wall to wall winter for me. Snow events in our area (not everyone’s yard gets it every time!) Dec 5, Dec 10, Dec 19! A clipper early Jan. Another storm late Jan. 3 snows Feb 2-10th. A light snow for MD in late Feb and a near miss in early March. That’s as wall to wall as it’s gets to be. No 3 week shut the blinds periods…we were tracking legit threats from Dec 1 on! And is even throw in years where it started warm and flipped but then had a sustained 8 weeks or so of cold/snow. For reference years I would categorize as wall to wall winters in my adult life 1994, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014 Years that just missed but were close, had long stretches that felt like winter and I’d even include in this argument 2005, 2015 But let’s be serious…a lot of us are hunting for the big year that historically this area gets with decadal regularity. 1958, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. Those years features a combo of long stretches of wintry weather and snows. We all know they won’t happen most years, but my point was if this enso can’t being about a snowy (doesn’t even have to be to the level of one of those years) winter then I don’t know if getting a year like that is even possible in the current pacific background base state.

So do we want a ridge there or a trough. We’ve failed both ways lately. If we fail again the problem is way bigger than any one specific artifact of the long wave pattern.

I’m not jumping yet but I get the frustration. A week ago this is what Xmas to New years was supposed to look like and it was consistent on long range guidance. But it’s been stick at day 20 since. Now guidance says we get to that look around Jan 5-10. Ok…but given what happened the last nino and the pacific issues which some have speculated is a bigger problem that just enso, I think it’s fair to be bothered by the failure of the pattern to progress over the past week or so. But I’m not making one of my famous “we fooked” posts yet. But…I’ll say this, if we get to new years with the long range looking like this it will be coming. Even in late flip years the changes were evident and signs the nao (which is a big key here) was tanking were evident even if the snow was still a couple weeks away. If we get to new years with no end in sight to this pacific onslaught then we’re in trouble imo. We’re ok for now…but the clock is already ticking. And before anyone complains about how early it is they said that the last couple times I called TOD on winter in December and how did that turn out? To be 100% clear I expect around Xmas we start to see the pattern progression resume. I think we’re ok. But I’d be a fool not to acknowledge the risks and be a little nervous until I see concrete signs were good.

If a nino isn’t able to change the equation then at least we know! I mean eventually the PDO will flip again but I don’t expect that anytime soon. And we can still get a fluke snow like the lucky one off boundary waves we’ve randomly lucked into from time to time in recent years. But if this current enso can’t alter the equation I find it hard to imagine how we get a true wall to wall snowy winter in this pacific background state. please note I said IF…I’m sticking to my forecast for now.

Maybe…but I remember getting 1-2” in northern VA on November 11th after it was 65 degrees with severe thunderstorms earlier that day with a temp of 33-35 during the snow. How??? Because we got lucky with banding and it snowed like crazy for an hour. We can’t predict where but I think whoever ends up under a heavy band could get a pleasant surprise despite the marginal temps. If it snows hard enough it won’t matter. It will melt as soon as it stops like it did in my November example but who cares.

I agree because I think only heavy banding will do anything but the radar looks about like it’s supposed to now it’s not supposed to really start to look like much until around 7-8pm. That’s when things are supposed to fill in to our southwest.

Ok keep this is mind. We never expect to nail the specifics of meso scale banding before the storm. But that’s all we have here because the boundary layer is way too warm for light to moderate snow to do anything. This is entirely a now cast situation.