psuhoffman

PSA When to worry about a post implying it’s not gonna snow The post is supported by sound logical analysis citing reliable data When not to worry about posts implying it won’t snow The post is supported by a random plot from a 300 hour operational run. The post cites absolutely no reliable data or evidence The post is based on feelings and emotional venting

2010 was very high on the analogs. It’s very possible we follow a similar progression just displaced 2 weeks later. Obviously I’m not expecting it to get to that extreme. That takes a lot of luck on top of a good pattern. 1958 followed a similar progression but our area got unlucky during the January window and had to wait for the mid Feb to mid March window to hit big. But there is a lot of history to two favorable periods with a reload. 1966 also, reload early Feb before another snow event late Feb.

It’s slower but hints of the AO/NAO starting to flip at the very end of the gefs also.

If a wave wants to secondary or go berserk once it’s east of our latitude I’m fine with that lol. But yea it would take perfect timing for an amplified system to work without blocking in a marginal airmass.

I travel a lot and the vibe is just so different when you get out of the area. It’s even a little better (wrt laid back) up here v closer to DC. I’ll definitely be going somewhere once the kids are gone. Still a ways away for me though. I agree with your thoughts. The pacific dominant pattern showing up is one where waves can work well. If the nao goes negative then we can start hecs hunting.

Bobs here it’s on

There was can kicking, but only about a week, which I suspected would be the case. Early January is the typical timing of a flip in ninos with a similar December longwave pattern. We might have a shot at something just before new years but it’s still likely just after that true cold starts to take hold. . But make no mistake guidance was originally rushing the pattern by about a week. 12 days ago this was the look for Xmas on the EPS. We still get to that but not until closer to New Years. I said we’re fine as long as we don’t get to new years without the pattern change eminent. BUT…if we did get to Jan with no sign of the pac backing off and a raging +AO history says it’s game over for getting a favorable long wave pattern this winter. I think some just don’t like having that hanging over our heads. But that wasn’t a prediction just a factual statement of what historical data says. In all past similar December Ninos the pattern either begins to flip by early January or it stays crap all winter.

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002. Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample.

About what?

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly.

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ! If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go! There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some.

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year.

Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs

Ask him how a western trough worked out the last few years

Webb has become a whole clown now https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1735818062962524506?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

Some of y’all are funny. A few days ago when guidance looked like crap some wanted to push back. Now things look legitimately good and now it’s time to Deb?

There was an arctic shot in late December but we only got a coating of snow with it. The first 2 weeks of January were very cold but dry. There was a 1-3" clipper that was it. IAD had 11 straight days with a high below 40 degrees early in the month. From the 14th to the 28th was mild as we got a bit too much PAC. Similar to now. Then things reverted to the pattern of Dec/Early Jan and it was away we go. The not so good 2 week Jan pattern is below. But it was really only 2 weeks that whole winter where the pattern was not so good.

Canadian weeklies updated. They flip the NAO negative around New Years and run the table. Also develops a nice EPO-NAO ridge bridge. Cue Chuck to point out the PNA is negative though.

That's because snow is an anomaly here and at our elevation and latitude it takes way more factors to be in our favor than not. Kinda like a golf swing...takes multiple things working in unison to get it right...any one little thing can F it all up.

First of all, the reason Siberia can get so cold is it is a much larger land mass and sheltered from any marine influence. It is much further and the body of water that is typically upstream from them is the north Atlantic which is much smaller and cooler than the pacific. Second, the predominant longwave pattern or flow. Look at this below. I have highlighted the pac jet there. How would any cold from Siberia be able to get here given that flow...cross polar flow is completely cut off by the pac jet blasting across N America. Furthermore how would our source regions even be able to develop home grown cold with that flow blasting warm pacific air across the whole continent. It is not always cold in Siberia, well WRT normal anyways... right now it is...see below But the flow shifts and becomes more progressive and that cold is forced out into the pacific and quickly gets obliterated as it mixes with the pacific maritime airmass...so look at next week It's now warm in Siberia, but its still not cold here its just warm EVERYWHERE...literally the only cold in the whole hemisphere WRT normal are two small pockets over Greeenland and Alaska, both of which are under a TPV at the time. 90% of the land masses across the whole N Hem is well above normal. As for your other questions regarding how much of this is random v "you know what". I can't say. I can say the pacific pattern which is responsible for this is partially cyclical. We are in a hostile PDO cycle. But I can also say that there are some factors contributing to this which make it worse which have been linked to "you know what". The expansion of the pacific basin circulation which is linked to warming has compressed the jet speeding it up making the problem worse. The warm pools in the western Pac/IO are making this worse and also linked to warming. And of course as the pacific warms that's going to be a problem since that is what is upstream of us. I have no idea what percentage of this is just cyclical and what percentage might be warming but its likely some of both.

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke.

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7! There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5. A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan. 4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb. And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding.