psuhoffman

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer.

I don’t regret going into teaching at all. I do think about going back and finishing my meteorology degree someday though. Feels like unfinished business.

Funny story. One of my meteorology professors at PSU was Jon Nese who later left to work at the weather channel. I think he is back at PSU and runs the undergrad program now. But the day before I remember it was evident on WV once the upper feature was into the TN valley something was way way off. Guidance was severely missing the amplitude of the wave. I asked him “what’s the chances all the guidance is just wrong” and he said “about 0”. lol. They were probably glad when I changed majors after that semester. I lived in the weather station and looking back on it I probably drove them crazy.

I’d agree with this except in a moderate to strong Nino. In all other enso states if you look at the win % for those amplified storms it’s low. Even with a block. But man our win rate is extremely high in a Nino if we get blocking. The only fail in my lifetime was 98 because it just never got cold enough. 92 and 95 failed because we never got prolonged blocking. 83, 87, 2003, 2010 and 2016 all produced HECSs. If we get a period with a true block this winter our chances of a hecs are pretty good. Wrt 1996 it kinda makes sense. It was a Nina but had a lot of Nino hybrid characteristics in the North Pacific. Right now we’re in a strong Nino being muted by a strong Nina ish pac base state. So in the end they could have a lot of commonality. Let’s hope so.

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”. Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.

Thank you. I also prefer short range. Nothing more exciting than looking at VVs, moisture convergence, fgen and trying to nail meso banding as a snowstorm is bearing down on us. Where’s that death band gonna set up. NE MD destroyed. But alas the last 7 years I’ve had way more practice looking at day 15 ensemble means wanting to gouge my eyes out as I wait for the next hint at any hope. Wrt long range, for me it’s 99% pouring over past data. What happened in every past snowy pattern. What was the loading pattern weeks ahead. How did this roll forward in the past. I just waste way more time than most looking at and memorizing historical weather data. Frankly it comes in handy with short range too. There are surprises good and bad but I’ve found more often than not things trend towards what history says should happen given the setup.

If the nao tanks the first week of January all bets are off. I want to see another couple days of movement in this direction. I wasn’t expecting that until later. But if true the -pna wouldn’t matter.

This would suck ……if you’re Webb

It’s a sample size of 3

Fringed

Correlation isn’t causation. I highly doubt the -pna is causing a -nao. And a -nao causing a -pna is almost impossibly from a wave physics standpoint. What’s likely going on is random but a function of the fact the base state has been a -pna so odds greatly favor a -pna regardless of the nao state. We had a -pna during most +nao periods also. And those were even warmer than the -nao-pna periods! The fact a +pna+nao has been colder than a -pna-nao lately is also related to the warmer pac and the fact we’ve been in a Nina base state which has a much more hostile -pna effect on the eastern US than a Nino. Note in 2019 we had a -pna also but it wasn’t as bad. Yea it sucked compared to our expectations for a Nino but the reality was colder/snowier than the other -pna dominant years recently. The weak Nino was unable to completely mitigate the pac that year but it has some effect. But I do think there is some truth to your comment wrt the expended Hadley cell and mid lat ridges linking with high lat ridges lately. Here’s my alternative conclusion. I do think what we’ve proven the last 7 years is during a hostile -pdo cycle a Nina and likely a neutral enso (which frankly weren’t great during previous -pdo cycles but could be ok) are now mostly a lost cause and the best we can do is hope if we get lucky we fluke into a few snows and avoid a total complete 2020/2023 type fail. But what we haven’t proven is whether a Nino is also a fail. During previous -pdos ninos we’re still extremely snowy. I’m betting the split flow and stronger stj will limit the ability for a full latitude trough to dig out west and for a ridge to go nuts in the east. I think a Nino can still have the canonical response. If it doesn’t as I’ve said it’s time to pack it in wrt expecting a truly snowy winter, until the PDO phase flips again, whenever that is.

What you’re basically saying then is we can’t get a snowy winter in a -PDO anymore. This winter is a good test case for that hypothesis.

Just my 2 cents…I have fellow snow weenie friends from NYC. From 2003-2018 NYC had 40”+ 9 times in 16 years. And several of the years they missed were still in the 30s. This resulted in them thinking anything less than 40” sucks. The second factor is the climo for a Nino isn’t as great for them. The chances to exceed climo snowfall decreases as you head north. Years like 2016, 1987 and 1965 weren’t as good for NYC as here, especially wrt climo and their expectations. Frankly even 1958 and 2010 weren’t as good there when you factor climo. And don’t shoot the messenger but two of my NYC friends remember 2010 as mostly frustrating because they got 40” but places south of them got way more and it “ruined” it for them. Combine their inflated expectations compared to us with the fact even if we get what I expect and a period that rivals an average of Jan/Feb 1958,1965,1987,2010,2016 that wouldn’t be as good for them…and you get their pessimism towards the current situation. Frankly what they root for is way different. They want an east based -QBO nina. Those are cold and from NYC north very snowy. They suck for us! But that’s what they want. Even if we get a snowier Nino they don’t appreciate them as much as they are warmer, nyc won’t hold snowpack which is something they care about. We don’t since it’s virtually impossible here. And places south of them tend to get more which annoys them to no end because NYC is the grandfather creator of snow and they deserve to get the most from every storm or else it’s not fair.

Ok let me rephrase that. A -EPO/+PNA is awesome but also incredibly rare. Ya it would be nice but in the last 50 years there’s only been 4 years where that was a predominant feature. 1994, 2003, 2014 and 2015. And in a -PDO that combo is almost impossible to sustain. So short of waiting for that unicorn once every 15 years type combo…what would you want to see to get a cold/snowy winter?

Ok let’s come at this a different way. What exactly would you want to see to say “it’s gonna be cold/snowy”?

In my best Lewis Black impersonation… “HOLY SHIT, HOLY Fng SHIT”. Inject that long wave pattern at that exact time of year right into my veins please!

But you know better?

I need @stormtrackerpermission to fully express my opinion of that prog.

Is this a joke?

If a -nao doesn’t work then we’re essentially F’d during any -pdo cycle (which can last 20+ years) because the only way we overcame a hostile pac base state in past -pdos was blocking except for random one off fluke luck with progressive waves. But that’s not a path to a snowy winter just a once in a while fluke reprieve.

If we had a positive AO or a Nina I’d share your worry. He means a week later that pac ridge would be trouble. But in a Nino with -AO and split flow it’s not the same. We discussed this yesterday. And the ridge is temporary. In a strong Nino no way we get a prolonged Nina pacific long wave pattern. It’s a response to the mjo in the MC. It will come off before it significantly alters the equation. If I’m wrong and we get a prolonged pac ridge -pna eastern torch I will officially cancel winter forever and find a new hobby.

I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. I think it’s very possible we get snow before late Jan. I was just saying the best window for a hecs level storm would be after the PAC pattern recycles. There are plenty of paths to get snow before that.

This is my current thought process on how this might play out As the MJO progresses through 8/1 and the jet starts to retract will will get a favorable EPO/PNA longwave pattern around New Years. This will begin the process of ushering in a more favorable regime for snow. But it's going to take some time to mitigate the thermal issues across all of North America. It's possible we get some snow early in this process but it would take some luck with either the timing between waves, a transient well timed 50/50, or a progressive wave with a favorable track. Overly amplified waves would still favor rain during this phase. After that it is likely we get a short period as the MJO progresses through the MC (phases 3-6) where the typical Nino pacific pattern is destructively interfered with and we get a hybrid nina like longwave configuration for a time. This might lead to a bit too much -PNA for a time in January. It shouldn't be a torch or a no hope pattern, we could even snow with some luck and a progressive wave during this period, but it would still not be that "it" look Ji wants for our HECS. But a -PNA ina nino is not the same. THe STJ and split flow will fight against a huge SE ridge this time. But the real lead is that once the MJO gets out of hostile phases again...this time we have a colder regime already established across North America and its go time. By then the effects of the SSW are likely to be kicking in also. If this leads to prolonged NAO blocking in conjunction with when the canonical nino pattern resumes in the pacific it could be ripe for an HECS threat. I am not saying we won't get snow before then...we very well could, but I think the timeline implies our BEST longwave pattern is still likely to be late January into February.

He used one run of one model to say “no evidence of cold”. Come on that’s clown stuff. But we’re hunting snow not cold. Frankly I’m not sure how cold it can actually get anymore. Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016. Warm muted then routs the cold pretty fast recently. But it can get just cold enough to snow still and that’s what I’m hunting. I’ve given up on wall to wall cold. This isn’t even really the right seasonal setup for that.

Another piece to the equation is that during a Nino we typically get a split flow with a calmer NS. Systems crashing into the west are somewhat cut off from the NS so the trough there isn’t as hostile to the downstream flow as the phase full latitude trough you tend to get in a Nina where the dominant NS dives into the west. In a Nino more commonly it’s somewhat cutoff systems that slide east under the NS often with a ridge in the epo-nao domain above the trough.