psuhoffman

I agree with the CC point. Wrt this winter I want to get more snow from this next window also but I wouldn’t rule out still going epic even if it doesn’t start until late January. Week SPV, Nino, -qbo the ingredients are there to go on an absolute tear if we can just time things up. We can hit climo in one storm in a Nino. Then all we need are a couple other hits and we get into memorable season territory. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic runs post Jan 20. So long as we see the seeds being laid, nao going negative mainly…I think we are still ok One reason is that NWP is better at picking out the major long wave flow at range than discreet surface features. Another is that we can look at an ensemble mean to get an even better idea of the long wave pattern but you can’t do that as effectively with surface features. Plus if you are skilled you’re often better off figuring out what should happen given the long wave pattern at range than relying on the surface details of nwp.

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation. The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season. But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here. And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont! If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter. Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both.

You’re right everything’s fine I’m just imagining our snow drought.

The crappy pac is a temporary response to the jet retraction and mjo traversing the MC. It won’t last long as it’s in conflict with the enso. Note even with temporary Nina mjo forcing the central pac ridge is muted compared to recent years. This won’t be a case of endless -pna. By the time that gets here we will see the other side.

I was gonna fix this but thought no it’s right

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours.

We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say.

I don’t know objectively if it’s much more accurate overall but they did correct its crazy cold bias that plagues earlier versions of the FV2 core gfs.

Guidance did nail this coming pattern with exceptional accuracy and people who identified that wave as a threat were overly optimistic. That’s all.

I mean this with no snark, just trying to help. But that map there isn’t indicative of a good snow setup for us. Its subtle but the +NAO and ridging in the western Atlantic near 50/50 makes a big difference. If there was a trough there then that’s a great look. But ignore the colors and look at the flow. It’s straight out of the south. Blue over us doesn’t = good snow pattern. Think basic wave physics. Any wave approaching from the west will have a southerly flow ahead of it. If we’re going to have an amplified trough like that we need a mechanism to suppress the southerly flow. Blocking!!! It’s not there so any approaching wave in that look it very likely to cut and drive the thermal boundary way northwest of us. Add in a lack of any antecedent cold and that was never a good look. I say this with no ill intent just trying to help for future reference, but looking at that and thinking it’s good is user error. There are ways to snow without blocking but we would need a more progressive less amplified long wave configuration than that (the broad bowl @Bob Chilland @CAPE are always referencing or a trough axis further east and get lucky with a perfect timed late phase and tuck… only way that look there works is either an arctic antecedent airmass then maybe a front end thump or a lucky secondary development but both of those are long shot fluke type things. That look above is however a good loading pattern to get to a better pattern a few days later that amplified trough will move northeast and set up the suppression we need for the next wave or two to have a shot. With luck the wave break can even improve the NAO. So people were right to look at that as positive in the longer term but wrong to think that wave was ever a real threat.

You know I’m trolling right lol. But I’m doing it where it belongs…

So you’re disappointed that a day 15 threat isn’t inside 4 days 48 hours later? I feel sorry for your math teachers.

Why do you always post the period BEFORE the one we’re interested in!!!

Your troll game isn’t as subtle as you think

what’s the point

Very strong signal for Jan 6-7 on gefs. Makes sense. Last wave before a temporary warm up. That’s often the one for us. Not worth digging into maps or over analyzing but it’s about as strong a snow signal as you will see on that kind of lead.

The GEPS is the fastest with the pattern progression, likely too fast, but by the end you can already see the Aleutian low resuming and the central pac ridge shifting back into to epo domain. By the time the east warms the seeds of the next cold shot are already loading. This time with a -nao and a colder regime to start. We very well might snow with this initial favorable window Jan 1-6 but I’m still confident in the progression that when things reload mid January that’s when it gets REALLY good.

Next time just ask where the restroom is and to be excused. No need to do that in front of us.

More legitimate signs of the nao going negative on all guidance towards the second week of Jan. This signal is becoming more stable and consistent than the teases we were getting before. This would be right on schedule. Remember typically it’s not “nao goes neg and we instantly get a parade of snows”. While I’m excited for the potential in the Jan 1-6 range, cape covered it well, blocking would offer us an extended window beyond and history suggests we would be very likely to eventually cash in in a big way.

Get out of here with that logic nonsense were having a crazy party.

Raises hand… ”oh oh pick me pick me I know this one”.

No snark, a 24 hour snow mean on day 15 of an ensemble is about the worst tool to use to identify potential

Coop near here recorded 4” from that storm.

Does it make you feel any better to know it probably would have been snow 50 years ago? I wonder if in the future weather weenies will track “storms that used to be snow”.