psuhoffman

There was a time not long ago when some in here COMPLAINED when all the snow melted too fast! LOL!!!

Agreed. I just called out someone in this thread that loves to criticize without making any forecasts themselves. I hate that. Get in the ring if you want to play the game! on topic…It is possible the pacific flips again. I do think some of this is cyclical. I also think some is not. This year will be telling wrt how screwed we are for the duration of the current pacific cycle. We’ve proven that in a Nina/neutral it’s pretty bad. The next test will be what happens when we get the next favorable pdo cycle. I noted before that those have been degrading also and the last confluence of a positive PAC/Atl cycle we got in the 2000s wasn’t nearly as productive wrt snow south of 40 as the previous 2 were. How much does that trend continue? We will have to wait on that one.

For years now from time to time I leave the same question to the “warminista” members who often take over in the main threads. “So what would you want to see to predict a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic”. I get one of two replies…silence, or some ridiculous list of variables that it’s unlikely we ever get them all lined up. What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it. As I’ve said this winter is the test. If the current enso can’t counterbalance the various hostile pacific factors we’ve discussed we’re pretty much F’d. Especially since there is also ample evidence those pacific influences aren’t all random but somewhat linked to “that which won’t be named”.

Or is it behaving like a -pdo Nino. 3 past -pdo period ninos. All did flip colder and snowier. But only 1 produced a lot of snow. Luckily it’s the best analog imo so far.

We can agree this is irresponsible from both the people posting this and the media using it for ratings.

I’m not discounting this data…but if you don’t differentiate by enso it might skew the results. A La Niña or even neutral enso season with that same December is much less likely to flip in January. I’d like to see the data for only warm enso seasons.

These posts below discussing the exact period/warm up that you and Ji are now referencing are from 7-8 days ago…when the period in question was still 16-20 days away. This possible relax period and warm up has been on guidance and discussed in here since it was 20 days away! You are entitled to your opinions of NWP and long range forecasting in general. But you are not entitled to gaslighting everyone with BS nonsense.

The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster! luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling.

What did he say?

@Ji the temporary warmup after the threat around the 7th was already known. It’s been on guidance for a while. A week ago I said we probably gave a relax after the first week of Jan then things get even better during the next reload of the pattern. What’s disappointing was the 12z gefs really pulled back on the potential for the 7th. The wave gets washed out by most members on the 12z run. It’s cold enough. Just suppressed. If so that means we’re waiting for later in January which I’ve suspected for a while and why I haven’t been getting too into the analysis of these early Jan “threats”. My gut just felt we might have to wait but I felt saying that might get stuff thrown at me. But the best example of the situation we’re in now in 2016 wrt a torched N America. And it took weeks and a couple cycles of the pattern to get cold enough to snow. You could even argue (I would) that the best long wave pattern look was before the blizzard but the thermals over the conus just weren’t cold enough to support a snow here yet. Im not saying we only get one storm. And I’m on the record saying we got a bit unlucky not to get more snow that winter. I’m simply comparing how long it took to recover from a similar situation then to now.

Ops are really amplifying the long wave pattern. One problem with that is the pacific wins in a route. I’ve brought this up. Recently it takes weeks to establish cold and the first time the flow goes zonal off the pacific it gets obliterated in 24 hours! In fairness it is cold before and after that period you posted but that’s a disappointing development if it does evolve that way and would likely mean we’re waiting until after the pac progresses again towards mid January. By the time we are getting cold enough a temporary trough off the west coast immediately obliterated all the cold and we’re back to square one. Look I’m trying to be positive. But I’ve left it hanging out there that fail is an option and if so we have THE answer we’ve been beating around for years during this current pac cycle. Even if it goes down the gfs op way I suspect it still progresses to a good look after. But if this cycle of “flow off torched pacific obliterated cold in 2 seconds after a week of trying to slowly build a colder profile, rinse repeat” continues all winter at least we have the answer. This winter will be productive one way or another.

From the 10,000ft view the pattern has evolved exactly as was hinted from several weeks ago. This is the now day 3-10 mean This was the look on the extended guidance from a month out. Absolutely amazing win for the long range guidance. Doesn’t mean it will always be this accurate but since some like to bash the guidance for every fail (and sometimes when it didn’t fail but they are just mad there’s no snow on their lawn) it’s worth noting when it has a win. Now as we turn to specific threats that are coming into range IMO the main issue seems to be our snow probabilities are somewhat muted by temps compared to what you might expect given that look. We knew the transition week from Xmas to New Years would be a long shot. But even into the first week of January it’s taking a long time to establish enough cold and even once we do get colder the depth of the airmass is still marginal. This doesn’t mean we won’t snow. I concur with @CAPE , I like our chances with the wave around the 7th the best. But we need more to go perfectly wrt track and NS interaction than we would with a colder profile. What I mean by “depth” is can the airmass resist a southerly flow ahead of a wave. Can it withstand strong WAA. Can a low track west of us and still produce a front end thump. A colder airmass with more depth widens our margin for error wrt track. You get a more expensive frozen precipitation zone with each storm. This is why imo the ground truth on most runs isn’t as impressive as what you might expect with that h5 look. The good news is I think this general pattern will have legs. There will be fluctuations. We might get a temporary SE ridge around the 10-12th or so. But as this general long wave configuration persists we will slowly build a colder regime. It very well could snow the first week or two of January. But I still feel our best chances will come from Jan 20 into Feb.

You aren’t saying anything we don’t already know. A bad pattern might yield a 5% chance of snow in a given week. A good one maybe 30%. A good long wave pattern doesn’t guarantee snow it just increases the probabilities. Everything you said about threat identification is also great, except it only works out to about day 7-10. If we are looking at stuff day 12 or 15 or 20 that won’t work. The best we can do it identify the long wave pattern then wait until inside 10 days to identify a specific threat.

Beyond about day 7 and definitely day 10 we don’t have the skill to examine details and specific threats. The best we can do is identify the long wave pattern and what our chances to get a specific threat might be in that case pattern.

It’s just not cold enough. Absent a block w 50/50, which we don’t have yet, any wave will produce ridging ahead of it. There has to be a cold enough airmass in place to resist the southerly flow. We just never have that anymore.

Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold. So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place. The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled.

Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm.

It seems to be because the suppressed members are cold and the members that have a more amplified storm are warm/rain. The mean looks good but it’s misleading.

Hopefully you don’t take this too hostile. But may I suggest you focus on making your own predictions instead of attacking others predictions. Almost every time I see you post in the long range thread it’s to basically say someone else was wrong and anyone who believes them is foolish. And most of the time you mischaracterize what they actually predicted setting up a straw man back and forth debate. But I rarely see you come in and make your own long range predictions. Just make your own tangible predictions. If they’re better we will all see and you won’t have to point out everyone else’s failures.

Are you saying that if the snow threats between 1/4 and 1/8 fail, for whatever reason, it means the pattern didn’t change?

Yea. Wait until it gets in range of the CRAS

I’m upset the transient pac ridge leads to about 12 hours of muted ridging in the east. It’s awful.

WRT the SSW a few things I’d need answered before formulating an opinion. what does evidence say is the difference in predicted outcomes if the warming peaks just shy of a reversal and official SSW v achieving? That other study linked that it has more impact if the TPV is already negative. So how much of this is cross contamination of data? We’ve had this debate and when the AO was hostile rarely do I remember the SSW making a significant difference. On the other hand the times it seems to have got credit like 2010 we already had a blocking regime. Dec 2009 happened before the SSW.

In 2010 Canada was way above normal. Quite often in a Nino Canada is torched. We survive by roughing under the NS flow (split flow) and just cold enough with a good track. Warm the whole equation and it might not work. But guidance has always said this next week would have temp issues. from 14 days ago. And 7 Im still disappointed even with a perfect setup we couldn’t overcome those temps on that one run. But guidance has said temps were still an issue. On the 6z run the trough wasn’t just negative it cut off completely to our southeast! No idea what you’re talking about.

It was really just Chuck and Webb. Everyone else agreed it was likely a very temporary issue.