psuhoffman

Gfs is going to be a disaster I think. Hope I’m wrong

Because it’s been so cold otherwise lately. Snark aside it was just an observation. It’s Jan 7. We’re 10 days into a better pattern by then. Perfect storm track. Ya the icon thermals are probably a couple degrees too warm, and that would still be marginal for DC and that’s sad with that track on Jan 7.

Those temps are kinda depressing with that track.

Good. I’m more concerned with too amped than south att. Not saying suppressed isn’t possible also, there is a squeeze play going on. But given recent history warm seems the bigger threat than suppressed. FWIW 6z eps at 144 was interesting. More NS interaction and more amped but also more space out west. Not sure how that would have played out.

Remember the days when we complained about getting only 10” before mixing or a dryslot!!!

At least your area did do a little better than most in the first 2 HECS storms that season.

Feb 2006

@Ji Case in point there have been 11 snowstorms of greater than 15” here since 1980. Every one of them was also a big storm for you. We share the same big storms. Jan 96: 36” Feb 11 2010: 30” Jan 2016: 28” Feb 2003: 28” Feb 83: 28” Feb 5 2010: 27” Feb 2014: 23” Dec 2009: 18” Feb 1987: 18” March 93: 17” Feb 2006: 16”

There are flaws in this setup. The antecedent airmass is marginal. The storm crashing into the west is trying to pump. Ridge in the east. There is a -nao but not a true block. The only hope we have to suppress this is the 50/50 and we need some NS interaction. It’s not the typical Nino “easy” setup where a split flow stj wave is coming at us with cold in place and ridging out west and a block. It’s not an awful setup, if the 50/50 trends SW or the NS interaction improves we can win, but I could see this becoming a ski resort storm if those details don’t break our way. As for what I want my best storms are when you get crushed also. The bullseye right over DC to Baltimore is perfect. I get more simply due to better ratios and enhanced precip from upslope orographic effects. If DC and Baltimore are rain I can get a pretty good snow here but it’s not gonna be 12”+. This is further NW than I want it for me here at this range. Sure I could salvage a few inches here if this goes sideways where as DC might be totally screwed but why would I root for that over all of us getting destroyed. .

So several times over the last several years the euro was all by itself showing snow. And of course each failed. And I opined that while it’s still better it’s not so much better anymore than it’s likely to be correct when it’s on an island in opposition to the preponderance of guidance. This is the first time we get to test that but in the opposite way.

with that western trough if the 50/50 relaxes it will.

It’s only out to day 13 for me but from what I can see it doesn’t bother me as much as yesterday’s runs. The block is more west based and there is a trough closer to where we need it in the pac. Adjust the north pac a bit and that goes from meh to great easily.

The N Pac high does bother me. My concern was well documented. Look at the trend the last 3 runs there. It’s developing a trough west of AK which will shift the pac ridge into the epo domain. The trend on the geps is better.

GEPS continues its trend from the last 2 runs. Getting really close to that IT look now

P11 gives you 4-5”

He still wasn’t eligible because of the formation.

Signal

Last 7 years have scarred me. I won’t feel totally safe until we have 10” otg and the Nino be like….

July looks really warm

Dallas was sooo stupid. How are so many people making millions so bad at basic clock management??? 2nd and long. Already in FG range. Run twice, kick fg Detroit gets the ball no timeouts and about 45-50 seconds. Game over. The odds of converting a 1st down are low anyways. No they pass, stop clock and Detroit scores with 23 seconds when Dallas gifts them 40 seconds! The probabilities on going 75 yards in 50 seconds v 1:30 are astronomically lower. You can’t throw underneath the prevent and take 15 yards at a time if you only have 50 seconds. Just brain dead management there.

I’ve found I’m better off completely ignoring the NAM.

It must suck having to sit down to chew gum.

We went from fringed to TUCKED

Later in the season I think we can survive if that trough ends up a little further southeast so long as the nao is negative.

That slight difference is noise. It’s actually another great trend. Look at the North Pacific! That change is more important than any minor features. Get that vortex back west of AK and it will press the ridge into western Canada and kick the trough out. And with the nao block it can’t go east so it will drop southeast right to where we want it. IMO the 18z gefs was much better in the one way that matters most. But I’ll let the pros weigh in.