psuhoffman

We want a jet extension just not as strong as the last one.

If it trends north/west I will head out to either Snowshoe, Timberline, or maybe Seven Springs in PA. Wish Blue Knob had lodging anywhere near the mountain, its a decent little spot but impossible to get to in a storm. That was my go to when I was at PSU. Don't sleep on late Jan into Feb regardless of what happens this weekend. I still think our best stretch is after Jan 20th. Jan 20th seems to be a sweet spot in similar years that showed up. 1966, 1987, 2016 all produced big snow around or just after Jan 20th and just about nothing before. I am really starting to like the January 20th on period. The GEFS needs to get a clue but the EPS and GEPS are setting us up nice for the end of January. Fits nino climo also...I know everyone is focused on Feb, and thats possible 1958 and 2010 are in the analogs, but 66, 87, 2016 all had the best stretch the end of January so I'm not ruling that out. IMO the reason Feb looks so much better in the means than Jan on a nino composite is because often the first 1/3 of January is a shit show and skews the pattern look worse than if you just look at Jan 15 on. To be the money period is Jan 20 through Feb. March is a wildcard, 58, 78 were awesome, 2003 but most others faded by then. I am reducing my seasonal total from 4" to 1" because of the depth maps I am not dismissing your concerns. if we do fail this would be the most likely way, BUT the compressed flow between the western trough and the 50/50 make this more favorable than normal. Sometimes regional geographical features can offset the hemispheric ones. Without that compression between those features you're right this would not be much of a threat.

The changes are noise, its virtually the same

You have the best avatar ever A lot of the time the busts on the northern edge of these type storms isn't due to a change in the track but that guidance often underestimates the banding that often sets up near the northern fringes of these storms where the moisture transport banks up against the wall created by the confluence. That added lift combined with the typically higher ratios there often creates a second snowfall maximum that gets missed in forecasts. Happens in many of those type storms.

What made me identify Feb 2010 the other day was a few similarities in the type of storm evolution. The 50/50, western energy, and the trough associated with our storm being anchored pretty far west but a compressed flow between the western energy and the 50/50 causing the STJ energy to partially interact and sling shot up the east side of the trough before hitting the wall and turning east. This setup is similar in all those ways. Feb 2010 had a more ideal block, better time of year in terms of snow climo, and the storm stalled when it hit that wall for about 12 hours which accounted for the prolific totals in N VA and MD. The thing cranked the deform all night when it stalled. This system probably doesn't have that potential because of the less ideal block it probably wont hit the same wall and just stall like that. It's also still not quite as cold overall leading it, it could trend that way its a lot closer than it was a couple days ago...but that worries me some still. I would still like to see a little more wiggle room right now in that regard.

In fairness you're right that in MOST winters if we don't have some snow in and around the DC area by New Years its a really really bad sign. But the one exception is nino's. 1966, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2015, 2016. They all started as absolute torch god awful seasons then flipped late. Some just become ok, some went on to become awesome, but there is a definite pattern. Even years like 1983 and 1995 that never truly flipped there was at least one big snowstorm in February. Most neutral and nina winters show their dominant long wave patterns by New Years and it is what it is. But Nino's often flip. I remember having this same discussion I think with @mitchnick back in 2015 when things were going pretty awful in January and saying its a modoki nino...I wouldn't call TOD yet, in any other season I would but don't give up on a nino early. I also wonder what impact the warming December will have on being able to identify the flavor of a winter early. December has warmed the most of the "snow" months for us over the last 30 years. This year for example...we had two waves I can think of that took a perfect track for our area to get some snow but the boundary was just 5 degrees too warm. Maybe if those two produce a few inches of snow in the cities it changes the whole discussion and perception of how this year started! Maybe it's becoming harder to predict the winter by the early results because of this.

We had this discussion many times over the years. I hate when it becomes an argument over definitions. I could care less what we call them. The problem is for the "purists" that define any transfer as a miller b, we then HAVE to differentiate between northern stream dominant SW's that transfer and STJ dominant transfer storms. The best definition system I've seen classifies the later as "hybrid" systems. And by that definition system our best storms are almost all hybrids. Pure miller a storms usually are trucking and moving too fast to dump prolific totals. The transfer process actually slows down the system some, plus often when a primary west of the apps transfers its because its blocked to some extent. We also run the risk of being too far west for a pure miller a. They sometimes end of coastal scrapers for our area and nail NYC, especially in a Nina! A primary into the TN valley pretty much guarantees we don't miss out on the party, so long as it transfers in time for us to stay cold enough. Additionally getting the wave to amplify to our SW opens the door to prolific WAA snows before the storm even gets going. Our really big storms are when we get a foot of snow from overrunning before the coastal even gets going. Miller a/b hybrids are actually our best storms. But the people that classify everything as A/B scare the crap out of some when they classify them as miller b and they suddenly think of every NS jump storm that screwed us over and hit New England. I know you know this, we've had this conversation before...but thought it was time to bring it up again for all the new members since the last time we got to actually go over this...since its been so freaking long since we actually got to discuss a legit snow threat in this kind of detail.

It’s already trended colder than 72 hours ago. Plus at this range guidance is often too warm in the boundary layer in the cold sector under heavy precip. It could trend colder. But we’re not really supposed to talk about temps.

Look at number 1

One of those is that little storm in 1997 I referenced a little while ago. lol

Ya those depth maps are good in lighter events but in heavy rates and marginal temps they can be way low. If it snows hard it will accumulate.

I’m not having that debate again.

Tucked

Wave is more amplified and a bit more phasing. My guess is it comes north a bit

Legit snow here now. Big flakes. 34*

I’m in the same boat but I’m also waiting to see how the pattern evolves after the likely cutter. If the eps is right and we get to that look by Jan 15th or so…a lot of the big analog years the majority of the snow fell after Jan 20 anyways. EPS is heading toward having the look we want by then. 66 and 87 had pretty much nothing in the cities before Jan 20. 87 there was a coastal storm that dropped like 6” here and 12 up in PA but was mostly rain in the cities right around the same time as this threat.

@WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 @Terpeast Also, it’s likely already heading where we want just might have to suffer one miss to our north first. Id be curious if the red tags agree with where I think this was heading That next wave is likely to dig towards to TN valley and 48 hours after this we have the mid Atlantic hecs look. Also in the pacific the split flow is taking shape and the pac jet is undercutting the ridge which will cut off the loading of the -pna. Yes systems will crash into the southwest but they will be cutoff and not going to pump a huge SER. Agree?

I might have to duck…but that’s likely shifting east behind a cutter however it leads to this which is VERY much a hecs look for the east coast. It just is likely the wave after the one you’re showing there. Now if I want to be picky that there looks like the ideal composite for a NYC to Boston hecs. The negatives are a bit north of where we want south of 40. But it’s going to adjust some from that range and it’s so damn close to perfect. And been trending that way for 3 days how.

It's close...but we need to get that ridge in the PAC into AK and the trough in the plains centered into the TN Valley... that is not a huge adjustment but that would make that a much better snow look. As is that runs the risk of being a cutter look even with the block.

I've noted this over the last several years, since the major model upgrades a few years back...guidance seems to make BIG changes somewhere in the 140-180 hour range, that seems to be where they start to pick up on the general synoptic idea. After that we obviously see changes but not like 500 mile shifts anymore usually. The final 72 hours we still tend to see a slow bleed north. Nothing close to back in the 90s and 2000s when storms would trend hundreds of miles north the final 3 days or anything, but a little bleeding. We want to get a little wiggle room now for that IMO. Frankly I am amazed by the progress. We are analyzing things at 140 hours that when I first started this you would be crazy to even look at until inside 72 hours. I've found, much like the NAM, that my forecasts are more accurate if I just ignore the ICON. I am not saying its wrong, is pretty much in line with other guidance inside the goal posts right now, just saying it bounces all over the place and will lead you off on a tangent just as often as the rigght direction. "Oh baby, I wanna get wit ya, and take ya picture..." Both rain and suppressed are still within the goalposts here. But if you told me we failed and asked how I would still say 60% rain 40% suppressed. We're still in the range where the ensembles have more weight and they look great. But also, we are at the range where things are settling in and I've observed, as others have pointed out also, we do sometimes get a wobble south or colder around now but 75% of the time things still bleed north the last 2-3 days. I like having a little wiggle room here. In my experience the time to worry, judging on how guidance has handled these types of systems the last 10 years, is if we start seeing runs show up that jack NC and southern VA. That's not what we want, the north correction is not hundreds of miles anymore. Even those end up trending north at the end...but not enough to save us. Remember Dec 2018...it went south and was showing a NC/VA line jack...then it did trend north enough to save Fredericksburg and Charlottsville but not enough for us. Having us on the northern fringes at day 5 is ok. I will worry if it starts to show a true miss to our south across all guidance. It really hurts to be on the same team with Webb on anything but I have to agree on this.

Get that place in Capon Bridge again.

Across all guidance there was in increase in the confluence ahead of the wave and so the thermals were significantly colder. The gfs didn’t trend as far south as the euro because it actually trended stronger and further NW initially with the SW and primary low but then the redevelopment gets forced further SE because of the colder profile. Euro was colder and a slightly less amplified SW so it made the biggest jump south. But the only thing I’m taking from this rum is the thermals. If tonight’s runs are correct wrt the colder profile over the top we have much more wiggle room and a significantly easier path to a victory here.

Antecedent airmass is COLDER!!!

I’ve noticed that also. You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol. Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak?