psuhoffman

Good that means he can’t find any reason to tell us it’s not happening.

Tuckity tuck tuck

I can abide by this run

I can’t do pbp I like to digest each frame and analyze and you Fers just jump right to the colorful maps lol

Yup

From h5 I think it’s another nuke

H5 is coming out first on wxbell. Amped as F at 108. Can’t see surface though. Just h5

Ralph thinks it’s too flat

Reverse psychology

Yea liked the progression just seemed dry. Not worried.

Ok you know what I can see what you saw. That’s just way too early. But I see it. But even then there are signs that early flat flow won’t matter. 1) the wave is more amplified. 2) look at how the TPV lobe is already more disconnected out west and ahead of schedule in the process of breaking off. Those 2 things offset the flat flow you were noticing.

Ok but even drunk im kinda curios what you saw at what timeframe that made you think that. Honestly. Because as it was coming out there was no frame at either the surface or h5 where I felt uh oh. Actually from pretty early on I was thinking “oh shit this is gonna be nuts”. Wondering what you were looking at…

I agree, although keep in mind our absolute huge snows (18”+) DC typically does very well also. We want the jack zone centered just southeast of us. That’s when we get super high ratios and that NW death band and avoid the dry slot. If DC starts having too much precip type issues and some 6” crud storm we can do very well, but the jack will be NW of us also on a huge storm like this. Plus we can all win with this if it tracks right. This could have a huge heavy snowfall dispersion.

When I was trying to find analogs to this storm more of the decent matches I saw were skewed NW of 95 than SE. I noted that. But no two setups are the same. But if the TPV fully splits and cuts off this has a lot of room to amplify.

lol I’d be more worried about over amped then OTS with that look

Damnit Randy left us to the wolves

This run of the gfs was closer, it took a baby step towards a better result.

My bigger fear would be a compromise that ends with another coastal plain storm fringe job up here the pattern looks too good for no storm but that doesn’t mean it has to hit here lol

I’m only at 108 but I think it looks better at h5. TPV lobe more disconnected and west. Digging in more. More room for a wave to amplify. I’ll assume it craps the bed from here but I saw improvements early.

Before we get too upset over whatever the gfs says what it now says 48 hours. 975 near Montreal. Look what it showed when that was as far out as the storm we’re tracking is. 986 off Maine. Meanwhile look at the euro from that range. Pretty close…

It was better than 18z but that run was awful... it started out pretty good, better than 12z even...talking about h5, but then after starting out more amplified and further west the upper low deamplified and flattened out again instead of digging and cutting off. Good start then crapped the bed.

How bout them cowboys

The way it gets there is more shocking...its not in the GFS camp its in its own universe with about as different an h5 progression as I've seen at this range in a long time on a major system. It does give us a coating of snow with the arctic front as the TPV passes across to our north but thats all it is...the southern feature slides off WAY to our south and that is because the TPV never splits the lobe off, it just elongates but remains attached to the Atlantic Vortex, it does that SW stretch of the trough thing we HATE with the tail and all to put it in the vernacular. Look at this crazy difference Euro AI Any storm is dead in the water with the AI progression LONG before it gets to the east coast...that is not even close to the setup advertised across the rest of guidance. The two camps are not all that different up until about 100 hours, then they diverge sharply and radically with most guidance splitting the TPV with the main Atlantic Vortex heading off northeast and the western lobe cutting off and diving into the Ohio Valley. The AI keeps the TPV intact as one shred factory to our north with absolutely no chance for anything to amplify as it drops in over us like a hammer. It's not even close to a storm...if all guidance looked like this I wouldn't be saying wait for the next run, it would be game over no hope that look is not even anywhere near a storm threat. That's what's crazy, its so far away from a storm its hard to believe that either of these solutions can be this far off...because one of them is going to be so horribly embarrassingly wrong here. I know the AI has some impressive early results but I've followed this new Euro since its last upgrade enough to know I would be shocked if it was this far off at this range. I am not saying it might not be over amplified, we've seen that...but this is more then that this is making a total mess of a really major hemispheric scale h5 feature. I'll roll with the preponderance of evidence that the Euro Op and EPS along with UKMET and GGEM and their corresponding ensemble systems are closer to correct here than the AI. Even the GFS isn't close to this extreme, its just a much less amplified version of the other camp.

I dug deeper into the 18z EPS... they were better than I originally thought Going back to my original breakdown... I looked at the individual members again at the end of the run 1) There are 20 members out of 50 where significant precip is definitely still going on after the end of the run. This would definitely add totals to the mean. 2) There are 5 members that I originally counted as weak miss nonstorms...but in reality they are slow. They stall the southern wave out and then phase late and as the run ends the storm is just getting going to our south heading north and likely to impact us to some degree. A few look ready to crush us and 2 look to at least get decent snow to us. So we are adding 3 from the weak/miss category to the jack and 2 are at least gonna be close that looked like nothing. After this I think the 18z is probably close to 12z its just got some members that are slower for some reason. There is more spread but its more about timing than track.

Looks like less spread to me. And keep in mind thats a 10-1 mean on low resolution members. Have to consider that when comparing op to ensembles. This is going to be a very cold storm...ratios will be higher than 10-1, especially up here.