psuhoffman

Looks perfect to me. I’ll head up to ski this for a few days then come home in time for this

We had 2 busts in February which were legitimate modelling errors. This though, doesn't seem to me to be a good example. If you know how to use the tool this is fine. That blizzard solution is NOT the majority solution across guidance. It's a fluke that it showed up for a couple runs on the Op GFS and one run of the Op Euro. But across the full spread of guidance, operationals and ensembles, it was a 10% minority solution at best! But 10% is not 0. It is a pretty extreme pattern. There is a non zero chance some fluke snow does happen. Its most definitely a long shot and not likely to happen...but given its not zero chance...that solution will show up on an odd run of the models here or there. And if all someone does is take that one run as if its a forecast yea thats BAD. But if you look at the guidance holistically every day, you see that is NOT the most likely outcome and was just a fluke run.

I do think the signal is there for an anomalous late season storm. But in the end the snow will most likely favor higher elevations and further north simply based on climo and time of year.

It does not mean it’s any more likely but it is odd to see two major operationals spit out similar crazy results at that range. Just something to log in the annals of the strange shit I’ve seen over the years.

Gfs smoked the same funky stuff

I’m not really in the mood but it’s likely going to be cold and miserable from March 15-April 1 so we might as well root for a fluke snow event. Even if it’s unlikely and probably just ends up some messy event that lets us down.

Im still keeping an eye on the period but we need a major amplification for it to work because the temps are meh and then we need it to happen pretty far south compared to where guidance is hinting. But it’s a non zero chance still something could pop up next weekend or early the week after. @WEATHER53 so….just getting caught up and did you decide to scrap the truce where we agreed to be civil and no personal attacks? We back to open season? Or was that a slip up the other day. Cause I ain’t said a thing about you since we agreed. I liked it more civil. Not sure why you felt the need to go into attack mode again when I wasn’t even here and the issue had nothing to do with you or models. So how do you want to proceed? I’m ok either way but if you decide you want open season that works both ways. Don’t complain and say it’s unfair when I respond.

It’s off topic. It’s not in the weather thread. And I found your jingoistic posts a few days ago to be political. But I didn’t try to stop you from expressing yourself I simply made my case why I disagreed. Then that ironically got shut down as “political”. But you haven’t had an issue making posts clearly articulating your ideological standpoint. Granted you do so in an ambiguous and subtle way but it’s picked up on. Don’t think I’ve not noticed. But then you complain when you have to be confronted by an opposing pov.

So I guess you decided to end the truce you asked for? Are we attacking each other personally again now? If so ok but then don’t you dare play some game where you complain I’m attacking you unprovoked or “stalking you” or some such nonsense. I’ve not said jack since you asked if we could be civil. If you want to go back to open season so be it but that works both ways. So what’s it gonna be?

I’m not going to engage in personal attacks but careful with the “love it or leave it” stuff. First of all I’ve been to many other places and it’s true our society is better than most I don’t think we are the best. There are places I think have their value more aligned to mine than here. I’d be perfectly happy there. Does that make me a horrible person? Do I have to leave? IMO being critical of your own society in order to improve it is not negative. It’s how you make progress. Should the founders not have been critical of King George? If you disagree with a point address that point. Explain why you don’t agree. Neither side (and I mean that) should use the flag as a way to stifle expression.

I felt I was not in the right frame of mind to be civil and didn’t want to make things a shit show so had to step away. But seeing the current state of things…not sure that matters much now. I didn’t come in here to escalate things even further. I’ll be civil. But 2 points that aren’t political. These are just facts 1) we cannot fix our fiscal problems this way. Even if we eliminated all of our regulatory and public service agencies it wouldn’t even account for half the deficit! Plus the damage it would cause to the economy would hurt tax revenues which is the other half of the equation. This isn’t politics it’s math. This isn’t going to help the fiscal mess we are in it’s just going to hurt a ton of people. If we really want to get out of fiscal hell the only viable path is to freeze spending at current levels then only increase it at inflationary increments and grow our way out over time. That’s the only way. Cutting our way won’t work because only a small % of the deficit is from discretionary spending and the damage to our tax revenues offsets the cuts. Sorry again this is basic economic and math. Not politics. 2) attacking our public servants is dangerous. But more so the cruelty I see right now is ridiculous. What’s the point of all the “welcome to the real world where people get fired all the time” comments. Yea and my whole life our culture openly despised the evils of corporate America. This is the part I really don’t get. There feels like this idea that some think public servants are their enemies. That because at some point they felt economic pain they should too. Why? Many of them are in careers where the whole point of what they do is to fight the private sectors cruel inequities! But instead of joining them you decided the better course was to make sure they suffer also? Is that who you want to be? You think teachers and meteorologist and civil engineers and environmentalists and doctors and social workers and first responders should all suffer because you aren’t as well off economically as you want to be? You think attacking the people who devote their lives to public service and rejoicing in their pain and suffering is making us a better society? That isn’t political it’s insanity and cruelty

So how’s it going…

I’m actually a sociologist when I’m not pretending to be a meteorologist. Don’t worry H2O I just came by to send a few last PMs. I’ll be out of your hair soon.

It wasn’t a personal attack. I am attacking the policy.

Anyone that wants to find me for now I’m going to start updated my old Facebook weather page again here https://www.facebook.com/share/153XsShetw/?mibextid=wwXIfr I also am on twitter @psuhoffman This isn’t some well thought out plan. It’s just something I came to last night. I don’t know if I’ll reconsider eventually but for now this is where I am. I vehemently disagree with the contention that “this isn’t the place”. No this isn’t the only place. But it’s a place and that makes it the right place. There is a concerted effort to undo a lot of the progress our society has made over the last 100 years and that effort is not just political it’s cultural. And that fight is happening everywhere and yes even a weather board can’t pretend it’s not going to be part of it. Even if that part is to simply decide not to push back. Not to resist and try to impede this movement. Lastly this policy is harmful because this movement to undo much of our society has been masterful at manipulating narrative. It’s happening on this board. I had to wade through a page “thermometers weren’t accurate” BS last month as of we don’t know what that was about. Then when people started to push back the “no politics” comes out and everything gets deleted. A sports discussion starts having complaints about woke athletes or canadiens booing us then the retorts are “politics”. They aren’t that subtle about injecting their narrative into the discussions knowing that they are protected from being directly called to the mat for utterly indefensible positions by the fact they can shut it down at any moment with “no politics”. Theyve made everything politics. Healthcare, vaccines, climate, sports, religions, economics, math for F sake…everything they won’t want to be challenged on is “political” now. by not engaging you are playing into exactly what this movement wants. They want space to normalize their unacceptable and in many cases illogical or worse openly bigoted views. They want to make it acceptable to say things that should be shamed. We play into their hands when we allow that. When we don’t shame them. When we don’t push back and say “this is not ok, not here not anywhere” Not in this society! They’re winning the war for this nations soul because way too many people aren’t willing to fight for it. That is where I am right now. Again this wasn’t some long thought out thing. It came to me last night when people were sharing such personal feelings of pain and sadness and it got shut down by the same old “no politics”. That’s exactly what they want. To cover up all the pain they cause. To silence the dissent to what they’re doing. They shouldn’t be immune from it anywhere not even a weather forum. They want to F around they should have to find out. Anywhere and everywhere. There shouldn’t be anywhere that “isn’t the right place” to let these fuck wads who are actively trying to tear our society apart know! If that means I can’t be a part of this community anymore I understand. I hold no ill feelings towards the mods who are in a tough spot. But I have to do what my conscious says is right. I hope to see some of you on Facebook or twitter for now. I’ll try to post more often and get it active again.

Nope it’s time to take sides. It’s too important. And of you’re not willing to be part of the solution you’re part of the problem. Ban me because I won’t stop. I can’t be silent anymore.

Sorry I have to do what I feel is right

I think around March 6-10th might be our best but final window. As the pacific pattern retrogrades there will be a brief window when there is still antecedent cold left and as a trough builds off the west coast it could favor an amplification in the east. After that the ridge in the WPO will cause some SER and in March any is too much. I'm not convinced its a long term pattern change and we go warm and stay warm but we probably don't have time for another recycle. It might turn colder again towards March 20 but by then we would need a once in 30 year type anomaly to get any snow of significance in the area, even up here. I probably won't be able to post much longer...so if this is it...its been fun. Wish I could have gone out with a win!

That seems bad to me. When I was there over 20 years ago “normal” was just under 50”. Over the last 20 years it looks like they haven’t had anymore snow than me here.

Yall don’t understand why NWS issued the advisory. This storm deserved to be an official bust, but it fell apart outside 100 hours so they had to act so that it could qualify.

Pretty bad, about the same as mind wrt climo but they’re in a valley so they’ve had even less of those nice little upslope enhanced 4-6” marginal events.

Must make it hard to aim

NE MD pummeled

I am almost sure I am going to see plenty of more snow.... because I'll be in Vermont 4 of the next 6 weekends