psuhoffman

12z never updated, but.... I didn't see anyone post 6z which was pretty nice already lol. 12z op was improved so we can just assume 12z ENS are better right

AIFS ENS

But that is the best median we've seen

It knows where I live

I said they like snow chases not grail quests

I need it to snow somewhere...I have the kids Sunday-Monday and they love snow chases.

For the last 48 hours with the exception of that one crazy euro run that went nuts...what we've seen is pretty consistent across guidance IMO. There are clearly two main likely permutations here. If the wave is weaker and too much energy gets focused on that frontrunner secondary the storm slides south. If the wave is just a bit more amplified and or focuses on the main STJ wave we have the chance of some snow. The snow idea pops up randomly across about 20% of the guidance because that's probably about the odds of that solution. So we keep randomly seeing that idea pop up on something. That result is still in there...still a possible option, we just need to thread the needle with the amplitude and track of the wave.

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it. Especially for places NW of 95! It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified. I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow. Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet. We've tracked worse odds things than this.

OMG have you seen the UKMET? it shows absolutely nothing

Given the atlantic and look up top I doubt we get out of the rest of winter without ANY snowfall for us NW peeps. Of course we need some freaking precip for that to work

So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow

Next

18z AIFs ens and eps did improve. About 1/3 of the members are snowy ETA: NW of 95

In the last 20 years we had a 5" snowstorm the last week of Feb twice. That is definitely NOT our best week...but there are other weeks during winter where we've had only 1 or NONE...so why is it that week you are obsessed with?