psuhoffman

I feel pretty good about this...

Fair enough but that means you own that snjokoma poster that shows up to junk up the obs threads every time!

I types that up just before the run hit. The euro did almost exactly what I hoped and now looks really close to what I envisioned. I’d maybe expect another slight beefing up of the QPF along the PA line area but not much. Maybe another .1 qpf. But that’s another 1-2” which gets that area into that 5-8” range I’ve been thinking all along.

The northern MD crew doesn’t need it to trend north. There is a legit path to a full forum win here. If that h7 driven band on the northern fringe beefs up just a bit as it often does at the last minute, and the h85 driven band stays where it is, we could get a full forum EZF to the Pa line warning event.

I didn’t think I’ve been negative.

It’s late and been a long week

But more realistic I want it to hold its 18z run but beef up the qpf in that northern fringe band like .1-.2 qpf.

Omg it’s better than the Hrrr and RAp

Because we needed too much. They usually trend some, 30 miles maybe and more importantly they usually under do the qpf along the northern fringe so between a small shift north and a 25% increase in qpf suddenly a place expecting 3” gets 6” or 8”. But if we need some 75 mile shift the last 24 hours that’s unlikely. I don’t mind sitting around the .3 qpf area going into the final 24 hours. But being on the outside looking in or on the fringe of any precip at all usually isn’t good. Tonight’s euro is big. It’s been bouncing a bit. If it holds or improves on the 18z run I feel good about higher totals all the way to PA. If it looks like the icon or rgem I might start to worry some.

Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them?

No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected.

I’m just using the hrrr and rgem here but you can sub the NAMs FV3 and GFS for the hrrr and the uk and somewhat euro (but it’s coming around some) and it’s the same. This is just 18 hours from now… The error is happening right now as the wave amplifies in the plains after ejecting from the Rockies. By 18 hours the camps have diverged and it’s just dominoes falling from there. The Hrrr, FV3, GFS, NAMs are amplifying the wave significantly more in the next 12-18 hours. That’s the difference.