psuhoffman

The h5 setup looks a little better (probably bc less spread at that range) than Feb 24 but my issue with the Feb 20 window is I don’t see enough cold in front of that wave. It’s going to try to ride the thermal boundary and it’s going to be hard to have it south of us given the ridge in front. The nao will force it to secondary but my guess is not in time because of the thermals. The Feb 24 has that going for it. There is a discharge (or could be) if cold behind the Feb 20 wave and if that 50/50 is the monster the euro guidance shows it could keep enough northerly flow into the northeast to have cold in place ahead of the next wave. We don’t have that for the 20th. They’re almost identical setups synoptically but I think the 24th one will have more cold to work with.

I find this acceptable

SREF trended north lol

The setup for the Feb 24 window is this yea -pna but that’s about as good an Atlantic setup as we can get and later in the season is when this kind of thing can work. The cape wave merges with NS wave rotating around the TPV to form a nice 50/50 coupled with continued ridging in the southwest NAO domain! We would need timing but we get some cold air delivery behind the wave on the 20-21 and with that 50/50 developing it could hold off the SW flow for a few days creating a window of opportunity for something. With the crap pacific that’s what we’re looking for. Windows. We won’t have wall to wall cold in that look. But with the Atlantic and wpo we should get opportunities to time something up.

Damn if I knew they served that... Can you order that delivery?

Can we get the seasonal trend here? Or do waves only trend south when we need them them to trend north??? Asking for a friend.

We say this every time then expect next time models will be better.

What do you recommend at starlight diner?

@Ji why is snow blue now? It used to be white...they used to make the map grey and snow was white on the maps...you know...LIKE THE COLOR IT ACTUALLY Fing IS!!! Who did this...I want names!

It's a legit window, AIFS loves it, even before it spit out that HECS just now it's been all over it tossing out various east coast snowstorm solutions there. Other guidance hints at it. The 50/50 from the CAPE storm...whatever that ends up being, is the key to our chances with the window around the 24th.

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm

Just remember as we head into the final 1/3 of the snow season these helpful rules about what to expect when utilizing our guidance, just follow the chart If the GFS shows snow: It's not going to snow If the GGEM shows snow: It's not going to snow but you can raise one eyebrow If the Euro shows snow: It's not going to snow but you'll be tired from staying up until 1am If they all show snow: It's still not going to snow but it's going to hurt a lot more when it doesn't.

EVERYONE knows it's going to be warmer... but the PNA is the only thing unfavorable. The AO/NAO/WPO are all decent. And late Feb and March the PNA is not as significant as it is earlier in winter. We are trying to find opportunities to sneak a snowstorm in between the warm periods, which is very doable and has happened MANY times before in a -PNA late in the season. We almost did this weekend...if the wave was SLIGHTLY more amplified NW of 95 would be getting some snow Sunday in an otherwise warm period.

12z never updated, but.... I didn't see anyone post 6z which was pretty nice already lol. 12z op was improved so we can just assume 12z ENS are better right

AIFS ENS