KChuck

Contingency plans must be laid out based on the best available prognosis ASAP. Also cancelations must be done early for the case of any washouts.

An earlier Buffalo NWS disco said that an omega block was keeping the area clear the prior weekend and that eclipse cloudiness would be dependent upon how fast that block breaks down.

If you go to https://spotwx.com and enter your location you will be presented with a listing of model site links. Go down and click on the 10 day GFS link. This will present you with a forecast of high, mid and low level clouds. This is the model that is in play this far out from the eclipse. You can also view the 10 day Canadian GDPS. This is the current 10 day GFS for Medina, NY. I added another screen shot as I forgot to change units.

Yes. In this model visual you want more blue. I'm set up for the Medina NY area. My take is that I'm looking at high cirrus. As you said, graphics are implying that you get better odds the further east that you go in New York. I've got my fingers crossed. I'm relying at this point on the Buffalo NWS for me. I'm willing to scurry to catch a better view, but with a forecast of 2.5 million people in the western New York area I have to wonder how many of those will have the same idea. I'm not willing to get into the middle of an Interstate parking lot again after my experiences post 2017 eclipse.

Updated Buffalo NWS disco for eclipse day... "While beyond our normal 7-day forecast... The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud cover with any confidence or reliability."

Yep. The thing that I've been worried about since I made my eclipse reservations back last November was a big weather system event. Often when a block breaks down something like this happens. But hey... it's the weather. In two days it will change, right?

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following... "Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday. While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

I can vouch to the effect. Wife and I went to Greenville, SC where my daughter lives for our first total eclipse. I remember telling my wife that it wouldn't be too bad with the scattered clouds, that we should get a peak at totality. Went to the car for something about fifteen minutes before totality and on the way back to our site I looked up to see not a cloud in the sky. It was like God took his hand and swiped the sky clean. I watched the video that Bob Jones made of the event the other night and was still moved to tears thinking about the event. https://www.bju.edu/eclipse/

Yeah. I've been watching the Canadian 16 day and have already switched to the GFS and the Canadian 10 day, which will have the full eclipse day come into range tonight. I saw that the long range Buffalo NWS discussion looks promising also. Hope it holds! Can't imagine 2.5 million people flooding that area. I want to get settled off of the road into our eclipse location asap stocked with a full tank of gas and groceries.

What impact will this have on the upcoming April 8th eclipse weather across the country?

I've been following the weather closer the last week. I've got a reservation in Medina, NY area from the 6th leaving back for home on the 10th. Going to overnight in Lancaster, Pa on the way up from North Carolina. Waiting a day to start out for home after the eclipse. Learned my lesson in 2017 when traffic from Greenville, SC was downright atrocious. It took us around 12 hours to make a 3½ hour trip due to a jack-knifed semi. My wife's nerves were shot, mine not much better. Tried to find a hotel to escape the Interstate and overnight in but they were all booked. Wound up going all of the way home. Medina does not appear likely to be in a congested area as far as I can tell as it appears to be relatively rural. I'll feel somewhat comfortable doing a short chase if necessary. Don't want to get in crowds as wife has an autoimmune disease. If it looks like a front will come thru a few days before and wash out the eclipse I can cancel and get my reservation deposit back. Our reservation is about dead center in the track, so we won't have to travel anywhere if the weather cooperates. I'm using the following link to keep up with forecasts from one link. https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/

I'm interested in the prognosis for this area for April 8th. Why you ask? No particular reason... I'm planning on being in the Gasport area around that time period.

It wouldn't be the first time...nor the last!!!

The thing that I didn't mention is that the bust was due to an unanticipated fetch set up off of the Atlantic resulting in a moisture river flowing inland that dumped the aforementioned snow on the Scranton area.

My biggest snowstorm was Nov 25 Thanksgiving 1971 snowstorm while living at the end of the Pa turnpike in Clark's Summit, Pa. Forecast the day before was dusting increasing to 1" at 3pm. Went to get hoagies for family around 5pm and we're up 2"-3". Sent to bed with forecast now 4"-5". We had our rivalry high school football game played on Thanksgiving. I got up to use bathroom and mom was already up starting Thanksgiving dinner. She heard me and said she didn't think that they'd be playing the game. I got back to bed and she called in my bedroom saying that the game had just been postponed. I said for a couple of inches of snow? She asked if I had looked outside. My dad's car was in our drive so his dad could park his car in our two car garage while they visited... or at least it was supposed to be in the drive. Snow had drifted over it to the tune of about 2' on the ground. Wind was blowing hard all day and think we wound up with 3' or so. I missed the game by having to go back to college. From https://www.freightwaves.com/news/worst-thanksgiving-storms-in-us-history Northeast snowstorm Nov. 25, 1971 The night before Thanksgiving in 1971, snow began to fall in parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania. The snow became more intense throughout the night, and by the afternoon of Thanksgiving Day, snow totals across the state ranged from 20 to 30 inches. The biggest amounts piled up in northeastern Pennsylvania, but Albany, New York, also got slammed, with a snow total of 22.7 inches. This was extremely wet, heavy snow, as temperatures through much of the storm hovered around 31 degrees. If temperatures had been lower, the snow would have been drier and lighter. The weight of the snow caused barn roofs to collapse, snapped off tree branches and knocked down power lines.

I had communicated with Van Denton of Triad Fox8 weather. He said that the forecast could have been a bigger flop as the models were calling for two feet.

Are you serious???

Oh the weathermen say it'll be frightful, But the kids say so delightful, And as long as they say it's so, It'll snow, it'll snow, it'll snow. In the morning when it gets light, How I hate going out in the cold, But if the weathermen get it right, I'll get to stay home with the snow. Now our hopes are slowly dying, All the models they were lying, As the thermometer is rising so, Where's the snow, where's the snow, where's the snow.

Listening to all of the talk in the discussion thread of our chances to still have a shot with snow...

... nah. You never run out of gifs... maybe imagination though.

I always enjoy your posts! Keep up the great work!

Unfortunately, now, as in society, we only hear from those at both ends of the spectrum — gloomists or weenies. Mets and highly-capable amateur enthusiasts who provided substantive assessments that did not predict snow were told by these Johnny come lately's that they were morons and didn't know what they were talking about. One by one they stated that they would defer to these "experts", wished us well, and left the scene. Oh, BTW, these JCL's are still on the scene making their presence known. On the whole, the board appears to have adopted their philosophies in that rather than look at the models on the whole and knowing what recent climatology has become, they strain at a gnat to try to get the outcome they want when it comes to snow. In addition, the weather model experts have "improved" their statistically based products by refining them to look further in the future. They do this in an exercise to prove their theories in understanding weather prediction. It's like DNA in that the older you get, the more your DNA breaks down leading to aging and disease. In the case of weather, I believe that more and more assumptions and micro climate permutations accumulate that affect the computers' long term prognosis that the weather enthusiast patient is presented with a fatal diagnosis. At the same time, by focusing on the long term they break the short term accuracy of the models. The main fault of the models probably comes from them being based on long term statistical analysis of past weather events that with the recent changes in climate are no longer valid. How do they fix it? Beyond my pay grade to figure out. Who was it...JB... who always said "Enjoy the weather cause it's the only weather you've got. "

I'd beg to differ... Atlanta 2014