Toronto4

I’d guess close to 2” has accumulated on grassy areas here in downtown Toronto with the main roads just mainly wet. The latest 00z HRRR has an additional 6” of snow by tomorrow morning.

The 00z UKMET increased snowfall for the GTA and the 03z RAP goes bonkers like the 00z HRRR. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires tomorrow.

Looks like we’ll get an extra inch or so this morning from this surprise band that is moving through the GTA.

Before I went to bed last night, I had a strong feeling this 1st wave was going to underperform from radar returns. This is reminding me of the event back on December 1-2. The first part was a bust as most of the precip fell as sleet and we only got an inch of snow (4-6” was forecast). However, the 2nd part of the event (snow coming from the east from the developing secondary low) later that evening into Monday morning over performed with 3-4”.

Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge.

18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum).

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/7cde42424525268bfe98328ed2d8f162/acc-total-precipitation/20200127-0000z.html This link from weather.us shows the total QPF from today’s 12z UKMET (today to Sunday).

It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow.

Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F.

I’ll be interesting if there’ll be an extra nudge south with this as we get closer. Currently the GTA is on the southern edge of the steady snowfall.

It looks like the High across northern Ontario is stronger and moves in at the right time to filter low level cold air across our area.

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low). Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.