TalcottWx

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/ero/ero.shtml Maybe I am wrong

I think wpc just dropped high risk.

I don't love what I see coming north from the NJ coast.

I thought I'd be called in a little early. Wondering what hell will break loose between now and 3am. Good night.

Danbury to Waterbury are areas where I am concerned for flash flooding for sure.

It's west of 91, it looked like that yesterday, now ur kinda in the game.

Wpc day 2 outlook... "localized catastrophic flooding is possible".

People out there don't have that level of technology

It might also just slowly slide east. That might be where initial precip comes from.

Being right on the edge now means we probably get crushed later

That's what mesos did over past few runs from what I gather.

https://twitter.com/iembot_aly/status/1678113411232849920?t=lEgWtUGohD1fB2Bw_QtjlQ&s=19

I'm right on the edge now. Looks like the main show is then anyway?

Do you have an idea of where I'm at? Like nw of Hartford. I'm almost due s of that one town Southwick that just out into CT from MA. Looks like I could be in that area...

I don't know enough about Vermont to even begin answering something like that, but I'm sure someone here might.

Just totaled up last week's rain total in Weatogue, 4.85"

I was in a wedding this weekend, but I've caught some bits and pieces of the modeling, and this seems to be quite the flooding event? I mean, you have to think this causes sine big issues somewhere.

Shine on, keep on shining, shine on, Keep on shining, shine on, keep on shining

Yes.. Looks like some spots might have put up 6-8" of rain locally. There's an unconfirmed report serious injuries, after a tree fell on two people in Thompson.

We are getting croaked. Roads were impassable in spots on way home. Water Rescues, building collapses... Crazy afternoon.

Looks like cells are going to train over the same areas Avon Burlington Farmington Simsbury etc.... Get the pumps ready

Further east, GOES-E Visible imagery shows increasing convective vigor with a few additional stronger cells over the lower Hudson Valley starting to move into CT. Persistent southwesterly low to mid-level WAA has been providing moisture flux through this area into Southern New England with total PWat values increasing from 1.75 toward 2" in the next few hours. Additionally, fairly clear skies has allowed for increasing instability up to 1500-2000 J/kg across CT int RI. As such, convection will likely strengthen and broaden in coverage (both cells and downdraft area). Forward speeds are slow, but will start to slacken after 00z as a new 850mb pivot/low shifts toward the Hudson Valley, backing steering flow increasing duration across southern New England for potential for spots of 1.5-2.5" though 03z. There is some uncertainty, but initial band/round of cells and upstream advection of moisture/low-level heating may allow for additional scattered cells to form upstream and repeat through areas hit by the first round. As such and in combination with 1-3" that fell last evening (across S New England)130, grounds may be prone to scattered incidents of flash flooding tonight.

Similar to where that cell just went up near Southington.

That's a fun one. Kinda thinking I get a deluge tonight. Radar looks like it.

HRRR also fired storms over eastern CT around now.