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notvirga!

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Everything posted by notvirga!

  1. notvirga!
    Owings mills has changed from freezing rain to what I would call “snow mist”. Basically drizzle but it’s actually tiny flakes.
  2. notvirga!
    It’ll be nice having snow falling all day with temps below freezing. Planning to take a walk in the snow this afternoon. Not much accumulation here but a heavy coating—maybe 3/10 of an inch. Hoping the NAMs are wrong and the globals are right for this area.
  3. notvirga!
    Absolutely worlds apart are the uk and the Gem. Hopefully consensus tomorrow but I’m not even sure about that.
  4. notvirga!
    From @jacksillin on Twitter. “So what "squishes" the low in the ECMWF's depiction? A shortwave trough moving through New England Sunday PM. The northerly flow behind this feature suppresses the burgeoning storm on Monday, letting it slip SE on Tuesday. The GEM has this feature *much* weaker and farther NE.”
  5. notvirga!
    Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model.
  6. notvirga!
    Those asking Ji updated his facebook to say he had a close friend pass away. He may not be around too much the next few days.
  7. notvirga!
    Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too.
  8. notvirga!
    For the most part all of the mid Atlantic HECS have been well modeled inside 5-7 days since the early 90s. (I’m including March 93). Jan 00 was MECS and a colossal failure in modeling.
  9. notvirga!
    If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models to follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much.
  10. notvirga!
    On the subject of categorizing storms, 4-6 or anything with a verified warning a to me is significant so: SECS. MECS I’d say 8-16. 16-24 HECS. BECS 24 plus.
  11. notvirga!
    Unless it’s super cold yes due to latent heat release.
  12. notvirga!
    An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel.
  13. notvirga!
    My mom is lives on Western Frederick county VA and has been stuck under that heavy snow shower for an hour or so. Says she has an inch of snow
  14. notvirga!
    I was thinking owl
  15. notvirga!
    I remember the late dec 1990 storm. Went to high school basketball post Christmas tournament in front royal. Started snowing when we arrived in the evening and by the time we got home there was about 8 inches which fell in just a few hours. Barely made it home. Dad was driving a dodge Aries and it conked out at the top of our long driveway (probably snow in the engine) It was a long drive home that night from front royal to Winchester.
  16. notvirga!
    Didn’t get much additional snow but 1/4 inch of fresh stuff and 23 degrees makes the 3-4 inches look spectacular especially with ice and snow on the trees.
  17. notvirga!
    Sleet has made it here. Hopefully can get an hour of frozen and maybe some bonus snow overnight.
  18. notvirga!
    Nope I like it if it’s between choosing sleet or zrain because zrain practically never lives up to the hype. Also, one of my favorite all time storms was Valentine’s Day 2007 when we got 7 inches of sleet and froze solid the next day day and didn’t melt for weeks.
  19. notvirga!
    Based on others obs sounds like we’ll go back to sleet here too before too long. Fingers crossed.
  20. notvirga!
    Maybe freezing drizzle and or light sleet here. I don’t hear pingers and barely even felt anything outside
  21. notvirga!
    Back and forth between all snow and sleet with snow. Not going to accumulate well this way but better than rain. And I just shoveled and the snow is super heavy here. Prob from the sleet mix
  22. notvirga!
    I’m about 2 mi west of owings mill and have probably 4
  23. notvirga!
    In some cases, like if tempts are low to mid 20s zrain can be good but having heavy zrain with marginal temps will amount to nothing and actually warm up ground temps, whereas heavy sleet will still accumulate and will turn into a glacier after a hard freeze.
  24. notvirga!
    Radar looks like sleet or zrain is coming up into Baltimore county now. Hopefully we keep sleet but idk. Looking out my window it’s still light snow. 3 plus inches I’m eyeballing
  25. notvirga!
    Got 80/20 snow /sleet here just west of owings mills
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