wthrmn654

Looks like we have to hope this line holds strong on the march east!

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- An upper level low is slowly drifting south from Ontario toward the Great Lakes. The upper level flow out ahead of the low over our area remains mostly zonal, with weak energy passing through. At the surface, a warm front and any associated isolated showers had lifted just E of the CWA. Early to mid afternoon should remain mostly dry ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a few tstms entering western/central PA should moves east and expand in coverage/intensity, reaching western portions of the CWA between 21Z-22Z per 14Z HRRR which has fairly good handle on that activity over PA. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000) and deep layer shear (35-40kt 0-6 km bulk shear) as this activity approaches will support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat damaging wind gusts. Expect two separate rounds of storms, one via the activity approaching from PA, another passing mainly across the interior this evening. Coverage looks to be scattered given H7 inversion to be overcome, possibly another developing this afternoon at H8-9 via daytime heating/WAA. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has the lower Hudson Valley and S CT under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the rest of the area in a marginal risk, but could see justification for including NE NJ and the NYC area in that as well. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most, with the NYC/NJ metro reaching the lower/mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will allow for max apparent temperatures in the upper 90s. An isolated brief apparent temperature reading of 100 is possible in the NJ Turnpike corridor of NE NJ. With just one day of apparent temperatures at or above 95 and any 100 degree apparent temperature reading being very isolated, there continues to be no heat headlines after collaboration with neighboring offices. Winds become NW-W briefly behind the cold front and drier air briefly advects into the area. After midnight the entire area should be dry. Lows will be in the mid 60s farther north and west where the cold front will work through first. Across NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island lows will be in the low to mid 70s. -- End Changed Discussion --

Current conditions: soaked had to toe after 10 mintues of being outside mowing..... yuck

Complete opposite.

Crazy, Upton said eastern long Island and se ct had the best chances for rain over night and reality was areas west had the best chance.

Wow at the rain heading towards NYC

Yankees look to be in a drought right now against the Mets

I'll get you a jet plane ticket to get you stop posting nonsense!

The only places that did well were south of jersey and northern New England like the Massachusetts region.

Gfs has 100s August 8th. It's coming.

Watches dropped for all but ct

Watches can be just about all dropped at this point.

In a 3 hour period there are 4 working fire calls, 3 of them within the past hour... in Nassau County Several possible lightning strikes

Kinda disappointed with the overall storms so far. Was hoping area wide pounding

I got 0.01 inches! Yippee

Yep.

Everything fizzled once it got to about riverhead area east just some rains

And such a huge areas, 39 million people in the watch area

Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near term to account for the incoming rain.

Amazing how identical it can be on "good days" and how it stands out on the other days.... nothing looks awry to me.. if it was way higher versus what other ones did, and often, OK that's different but it's not.. it follows the graph in general.

Hopefully this all pans out to give everyone some excitement today! The approach of a cold front to the west will bring the potential for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms today. A warm and moist boundary layer will support strong instability with 1500 - 3000 J/kg of CAPE by the late morning and into the early afternoon. With 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt, thunderstorms will have ample opportunity to remain organized and become strong to severe. There remains ample surface and upper level forcing with an upper level jet streak allowing for divergence aloft, an approaching vorticity maximum in the mid-levels, and a surface cold front allowing for lift through the entire atmosphere. This will likely result in the development of scattered thunderstorms as early as late morning. Thunderstorms likely become more widespread and more intense into the afternoon as instability is maximized. The primary threat for thunderstorms is damaging wind gusts, though hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 2 - 2.3 inches will allow for any thunderstorm that develops to produce heavy rainfall with rates up to or exceeding 1" per hour. This may result in localized flash flooding, especially in more urban and vulnerable areas. Poor drainage flooding can be expected in any thunderstorm. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today.

Mostly sunny and 80°F with winds 15-25mph, gusting to 35 mph 72% humidity and Dewpoint is at 70.3°F

Newark hit 100

Wow did the winds really pickup!

Finally hit 90, Dewpoint up to 69 51% humidity Heart index 95.6°F