wthrmn654
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Everything posted by wthrmn654
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Oh man, that dry air really got wrapped around the southern side, just looking at the latest loop.
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Recon finished, only did 2 passes, and 2nd pass pressure was up to 983.
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Alright then, back to tracking.
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Looking at the recon, when they tag the drops as max wind band, are they referring to surface level winds?
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If not, moderators will likely step in. He's not learning and clearly thinks it's a joke.... sadly.
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Oh I'm on mobile, I found how to manually add names thrive the account area.. thanks!
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Pssst...Where's the ignore button ?
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Seriously please stop. We are begging you.
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Your a category 9 hurricane on the intensity level... My gosh
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I forgot about that button, time to press ignore myself. Lol
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Speed was slower and it had 0 dry air or shear top contend with.
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You
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Yes, the big caveat here is that just like operationals often times underperforming with TC intensity, as is their inherent design (not a flaw), TC models often times overperform. There are always caveats and to err on the side of caution. Nothing beats in situ data. We'll need recon to verify if Ernesto is definitely going to start any rapid deepening tonight or obviously a substantial increase in ADT. We don't even have a clear eye yet, though that is probably coming. 8 pm shows 80mph winds.
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Who is this guy?! His names on Google searches....
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Let's remember, need a couple runs of consistency to raise confidence level for anything. Also some of the crazy pressures that some models show usually so not get that low... atleast in recent memory.
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Again, your looking at models, that are not cool proof, they come with biases. And errors.
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Dude, you don't just look at hurricane models..... nothing says anything over car 3 consensus or offical.. this was mentioned earlier that it's a consensus... How about instead of doing the what if, please focus on the facts/ what is known and on the table now. 00z intensity now suggest we peak at 36 hours.
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And it's not too be around Bermuda till around hour 72
