wthrmn654

The winners and the losers for today's rain. 0.30 mainly within the past hour here

0.13 but plenty of wind that's for sure

Just look at radar, rains already showing up on our radar and is steadily moving north with little interference.

They don't cancel those big events. It's all about the $$$ .I work for parks not to mentions all that already signed up

NBM v4.1 probabilities of >2" over the 24 hours ending 12Z Sunday continue to increase, now showing a widespread 40-50% across most of the forecast region, up from about 30-40% last night. Probabilities of >1" in any 6 hours has nudged up some for Saturday AM into early afternoon, and this is the window of greatest concern for locally heavy downpours. Overall, global ensembles paint a widespread 1" to 2.5" Saturday into early Monday for the area, with still some spread amongst members. RFC 3 hr flash flood guidance is over 2" for much of the region, with the exception of parts of NE NJ, where values fall to around 1.5". This would be the area of greatest concern for any flash flood potential, though certainly cannot be ruled out elsewhere. More likely, nuisance flooding with the long duration rainfall is likely with ponding and poor runoff areas. WPC has maintained a slight risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the potential for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Gfs in the super long range also had been showing a direct hit in the north east while the euro at its longest range was more east orginally.

Gfs on 2021 was ranked best for hurricanes, not sure how it ranked on 2022, but I'd assume similar ranking as well.

Gefs and gfs at 18z went west maybe 50 miles was on the 65W line hard

Double eyewall with many vortices within the eye structure

00z versus 06z Clearly more to the west/ left lean

Left lean?

Icon looks to be a little west.

Nam looks west so far

951 was lowest pressure from the eye drop.

Gefs looks to have a west lean now also... it's its at all west its every so slightly overall though

No the model thing he's talking about! Come on now keep up!

It's likely legit

Never even heard of it lol

Tropical storm watches and hurricane watches up

Eps still has a west lean and there's 2 clusters imo . Annoying storm

952 was 1st or 2nd pass

---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 66.7 West. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, however Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Saildrone 1036, located about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Lee's center, recently reported a wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).

Most all the runs at 18z including Hurricane models had some shift west.

Only photo that's within the correct file size.