wthrmn654

Wow , that cmc is interesting Goes through florida then up through Georgia then the Carolinas then back into Atlantic then up very close to us..

18z eps further in gulf too

It should be noted that the gefs 00z has a handful of Atlantic ensembles as well. In the beginning before it goes left...

1.15 inches this morning, not bad.

One thing to note, The euro AI model latest run gets it very close to the long Island area about 985mb, but it's run to run changes are 1000% dramatic. Highly unlikely

Navgem, icon, euro and jma all show a fairly similar idea, the cmc has also looked like the euro idea but has been wildly all over the place. Gfs has been a very stubborn child with the left turn... . However, Going into the Florida area they all look to start the same roughly speaking... That's my opinion of what I see/ have seen with all various runs etc.. little to no predictably as of yet.

18z icon shows it going into gulf, crosses florida, then comes out eastern ish side. Weak mess but juicy..

I'm not so sure it caved, play that whole run it then comes up the coast and gets stronger with it heading for long Island or nyc it would seem. Believeable or likely happening? 1% chance But it's something to deft keep eyes on... cmc has had an up the coast setup as well jma too am extent to... but there's a lot of wacky variables at play.

Big surprise shock, nws says peconic river gauge out of service. To high lol

Current total on my new station at my house is 1.43 inches. At my parents house on the older (2008)Davis pro2 plus, there at 1.31 inches. At my state park coop station, I've recorded, 1.58 inches. All 3 locations are in orient, with my house station about 1.5 miles away from the parks. And my house to my parents about 2.3 miles so roughly about 2 miles distance difference. The totals were less uniform yesterday I will say.

I would imagine there gauge has been running higher then forecast and the nws ended up doing the coastal flood advisory and putting up a statement for our end and last night ended up being highest to date for this high tide cycle lol. There final high was about 7.25 feet. Tonight high tide is apart to be highest region wide as per nws 730 update. Here's riverhead past several days and orient gauges for example. For some reason riverhead doesn't show as many days but you get the idea.

Wow forecast was 5.6 feet at 9 pm. Actual height 7.22 Pretty bad slap to the face forecast fail.

7.22 major flood stage riverhead

Flood gauge in riverhead, just about hit major tonight, we'll above forecast... orient gauge was 4.13 just shy of minor, also above forecast.

1.35 and quickly going up. Impressive to say the least

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- Early afternoon update: Winds have trended stronger especially along the coast, with LGA gusting up to 38 kt. Think this will be a brief surge of higher wind farther west, but be more prevalent farther east across SE CT and central/eastern Long Island. Bands of rain with the remnant low have been more prevalent across S CT, Westchester/Putnam and parts of central Long Island, with amts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch per MRMS estimate from 12Z-18Z today, and similar amts may be possible in those same areas late this afternoon into this evening. Gusty easterly winds continue through tonight, however the rain will begin to get lighter from north to south as any forcing weakens further. Skies will remain cloudy with a rather small temperature range due to gusty winds and cloud cover. Therefore temperatures will average below normal today by around 10 degrees or so, but average near normal tonight. Any shower activity tonight should be rather light with amounts under a quarter inch, and perhaps closer to a tenth of an inch tonight, mainly across southern portions of the area. -- End Changed Discussion --

0.95 and still adding on lol

Your not old enough to be constantly cold like my parents and grandparents are you?!

Snail pace catching up to everyone.

0.74.... my God this maybe the longest stretched out storm I can remember in recent time..... Saturday and Sunday and were still not done.

Finally got a band little ago dumped.0.30 within a few mintues it seemed.. won't take much if you get a downpour

Same at orient beach, we'll see when I go to work just how much more happened overnight.

Got a nice band finally! Up to about 0.70 finally

Rain amounts on the island have been all over the place it seems. Montauk point somehow got 0.79 so far as of this morning, I have 0.40 roughly, 0.34 i think in islip. But wear off that is in the 1 inch or more range.