wthrmn654

Half the storms missing, and I think it's going pass to the right of Bermuda..

The damage is done, so far recon isn't seeing crazy winds, if not lower so far, unless the right plot is not the one that's use but instead the left one.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was 107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon. Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet. Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon, estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size. Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening, though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland Canada.

It even has sound wow

We lost the eye

Next recon mission is starting shortly so we shall see what is really going on

It's going be a fight to the finish line no doubt,! Microwave shows it getting weaker and it goes to 20:45utc so as fresh as it can get.

It looks better for sure but, it may be sucking some more dry air on the west side again. Based on the airmass sat loop

Might be trying to make an eye. Pressure rose a little 2mb. Looking at recon stuff.

He is still hauling asses without any slowdown lol I thought it would start to slow down by now

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).

They kinda found an eye earlier lol? NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the center. Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt. The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor changes compared to the previous cycle. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25 kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to 24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28 C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing the system becoming extratropical at 96 h.

Noaa plane showing 967mb.. wtf This is like a zombie cane

2nd recon pass suggest pressure is up to 971.

It would appear/ seem that its going north east, does it go to the south/ east of Bermuda?

34knts 50knts 64knts

Noaa 49, noaa 43 are en route with teal somewhere in the storm can't pick him up on flight tracking sadly

This storm is just so backwards and confusing with the pressure drops yet semi crazy winds on only half of it lol.

500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates, pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission this morning. The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today. However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is generally larger than the previous forecast, so the life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little change was made at longer range.

The fact that the dry air was persistent for 24hrs was red flag#2. Red flag#1 was the extremely far movement, I without a doubt think has it been moving gals of its speed orginally say 7,8 mphs, it would of also been able to explode and erode the dry air. That thing was moving so fast, kept getting into New dry air it would seem around the time it finally absorbed and was getting is act better.