Baum

let me help. The trends are pretty much on track for a 24-36 hour period of snow showers/squalls wrapping around an occluding upper low. Model output on accumulations in situations like this are variable at best. If your looking for a solid 4" event this is not it. If your looking for periods of snowshowers with the potential for an inch or two over a long period of time you'll be pleasantly surprised I suspect. More importantly, it maybe signalling a colder and snowier pattern versus days on end of cloudy and seasonable temps. Personally, I like these type of set ups as a winter weather enthusiast (). Perspective is key.

^ agreed. not since last april.

I actually enjoy these type of events. Hoping for an overperformer.

change is a foot. Right on cue.

"TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY APPEAR A BIT BROAD BRUSHED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS ULTIMATELY END UP, BUT AT THIS POINT, A ROUGH RANGE OF A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT."- LOT AFD well played.

to an untrained eye...00Z NAM looks fun.

without angry summons input I'm sort of lost.

hard to believe any model will have a handle on the snow shower/squall accumulations layed out by this set up. Just enjoy that'll look like January and it maybe the change in the pattern we need.

Ironically, my recollection believes big cold upper lows settling over the great lakes have always been good harbingers of switches to a more wintry pattern in January where we've been through a long period of bland. Take it for what it's worth.

^ snow events on glorified cold fronts have never been money in these parts.

^ spot on.

GFS out to lunch.

^ yet. Has to get in NAM range for that.

I'm now pumped to see "a few flurries" added to my forecasts to add some variance to the day in, day out refrain of "Mostly Cloudy with a high in the low 30"s"

when does the 18Z GFS roll out?

nah.

It's a start.^

I want part l

Much appreciated! Ride it.

Z z z

Alek and Cary are right. We're screwed.

MLK Day....can someone draw a 982 over Indianapolis. Temps in Indy should be 52 degrees. Meanwhile in Chicago 24 degrees with Heavy Snow and blowing snow with 36 mph winds from the northeast. Minneapolis Sunny and -16 at 3pm. Draw it. Thanks in advance.

Honestly, I have no clue what the guy is or who he is came across the article and thought it might add to the thread. I'm not even sure if it espouses any direct opinion on the topic one way or the other but it does seem you might be quick to shut down any type of dialogue that doesn't meet your standards or fit your viewpoints. Quick add on here as I went back to make sure the article was not simply a fictional account as noted above. While it is true the author is a fiction writer he has also done non-fiction work. I have included an excerpt that alludes as such: "I hadn’t interviewed scientists about SARS-2 or read their research papers. But I did know something about pathogens and laboratory accidents; I published a book last year, Baseless, that talks about some of them. The book is named after a Pentagon program, Project Baseless, whose goal, as of 1951, was to achieve “an Air Force–wide combat capability in biological and chemical warfare at the earliest possible date.” Just wanted to make sure I was posting relevant material here.

If you haven't come across it before, here is some light reading for those so enticed: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html?__twitter_impression=true&s=04&fbclid=IwAR0uLrwtliS8Tg6d2vFG1aGk01Ee_WRdkiyxIa3rbBLjNUCW5uP1_zlgjp8