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Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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Agreed. Every model now depicts a sizebale accumulating event. Was not the case at 12Z yesterday.
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someone always gets screwed. That's the way this works.
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LOT has some early AM advice for you:"KEEP IN MIND IT'S NEVER A BAD TIME TO MAKE SURE YOUR WINTER KIT AT HOME OR IN YOUR CAR IS STOCKED AND READY TO GO."
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I thought you guys let Alek do a trial AFD for sh*ts and giggles. That said, path of least resistance given the prior runs before the 12Z Euro and Gem today isn't an unreasonable call.
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"QUICKLY BY A LOW COMING FROM TEXAS, BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS TRACK IS PRESENTLY NOT HIGH, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT THIS LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, THREATENING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY." looks like we have a GFS hugger in the LOT office.
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it was memorable. That's the goal.
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long long way to go. Just good to see a couple models latch on to the idea of a substantial event.
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Alek contrarian post incoming.
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bingo
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12Z GFS operational not what I wanted to see.
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^yep. board infamy. Hate to see Mchenry endure that collapse. Here's hoping for a reverse of this upcoming.
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not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out.
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been the story for awhile. Cutter/Rain or a shredded POS shunted further south and east or into oblivion due to blocking. Something needs to break the several years trend.
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going to be a long slog until sunday.
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Go big or go home:"OTHERWISE, THE GOING FORECAST OF A GENERAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS GOOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF 1-2 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY ISOLATED BANDING SETS UP. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS EVENT, " a 20/21 winter first with regards to ratios.
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^I'll take the fact we didn't get the eurhtymics response as a positive sign.
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todays forecast cloudy, high of 26, light snow with no accumulation. Pattern change in full effect.
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operational runs last night were a nightmare scenario if your selling pattern change. oof.
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no question the past few winters have had early snows, and late season snows, while the heart of winter has been blah to say the least. The past two April's have had sizable snowfalls and they are not the norm. The previous snows this late that were memorable i believe was 1961 and 1972. Accumulating snows in excess of 2" after March 15 are rare.
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better snow soon or the regular weather forum topics are going to make the rona thread seem almost therapeutic.
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10 " in Indy. Easy toss.
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flakeage.
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my weather office counters yours and raises you one: THE ENVELOPE OF FORECAST LOW TRACKS RANGE FROM A PATH NORTHWEST OF US THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST OF US THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY (EACH WITH DIFFERENT TIMING). SO, BE WEARY OF ANY PREMATURE SPECULATION OF WHAT, WHEN, AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY FALL.
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This is how LOT started todays AFD:"AFTER A WINTRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN A BIT MORE TO START THE WEEK." a wintry stretch is now an inch of snow over a 72 hour period with a day below freezing. Ouch.And now back to cloudy and 30 degrees. Looks like the change was about 5 degree lower daily temps with clouds. Winter of our discontent rolls on.
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models are just having a hard time with the pattern change.
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