Baum

dammit.

2/13/23 update on "The storm with no thread"

over/ under: 5.5 " MKE 4.2" Rockford 6.5" Madison 4.0 " Cary,IL

the fear of starting a thread for the incoming Thursday system is real. I thought model trends looked a tad better so far this AM. I'm still waiting for that event that strengthens as it approaches. Been awhile.

It's a sick hobby, my friend. Who attends a Super bowl bash, downs 3 bloody marys and posts commentary on a run of a weather model and uses the Rolling Stones as a reply. Life of the party.

THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA AT THIS TIME. -LOT start the thread.

on cue: A SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH LESS-ROBUST PHASING OCCURRING WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. SOME SPREAD REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE, THOUGH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS DISTANCE IS FOR A WEAKER SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

no.

going to be brutal having to bump this in 5 days

what should my thread title be after today's 12Z runs be?: " Madison Special Derailed" or the "The Southeast slider that changed Chicago's winter fortunes"....ill have to decide

gut feeling the Thursday storm is ours after we break 60 on Wednesday.

id take that in a minute right now.

you always have May.

sad.

if only it was that easy.

what he said.

Beavis's summer home.

yeah. it's bad. and you know the pattern will flip cold and wet in mid march through may,

Just because it missed us to the east with it's main accumulations does not it mean it didn't happen. Could also add one of the most impactful 1-3" snows given the wind and cold associated with it over a wide area I've seen in some time. So of course, it leaves us with;what could have been.

the December event was in a pattern conducive for possible snowstorm. The pattern here is conducive for showers and thunderstorms.

MILWAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF MILWAUKEE 331 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... EARLY THIS MORNING SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 5 INCHES. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

easy F. Even this weeks supposed cold is lame.

no worries, I'm sure we'll have a number of baroclinic frontogenesis systems that will perform.

MCHENRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CRYSTAL LAKE, ALGONQUIN, MCHENRY, AND WOODSTOCK 912 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2023 ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY REST OF TONIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. NEW ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.