Baum

conservative, but good early call IMHO from this far out.

lookin good. Major midwest / greatl lakes snowstorm with high winds and bitter cold still on the table for Christmas week. It's been a awhile....... ONE TREND THAT'S EMERGED ON THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH OVERALL CONTINUES THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS TUNE, IS THE PRESENCE OF A FEW MEMBERS NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY-DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS CUTTING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING, INDICATIVE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PHASING WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE ENTIRE GEFS ENVELOPE HAS BEEN EVER-SO-SLOWLY TICKING WESTWARD, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. THE REST OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SUITE/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOTING NO REAL MATERIAL CHANGE FOR A 130+ HOUR FORECAST FROM THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH HAS THUS FAR REMAINED AMONG THE MOST CONSISTENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE). THIS ALTOGETHER HASN'T REALLY CHANGED THE OUTLOOK PICTURE THAT MUCH, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS HONING IN ON THE MAIN SWATH FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WEST TOWARDS OUR LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITHOUT A MORE FULLY-PHASED SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW (AND EVEN SYSTEM-PRECEDING FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED SNOWFALL) AND A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DOSE OF WIND IN THE LOCAL AREA SEEMS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

it's all fun and games until the 12Z Euro puts it over the Delmarva

update:

First call:

Regardless of a Big Dog most models now show a swath of snow to be put down ahead of the Cold. Will be white this Christmas morning in a good part of this forum, me thinks. LOT concurs: A NOTABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE FOR A POTENT UPPER WAVE IN THE VICINITY ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH OBVIOUS TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES EXIST ACROSS THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE RESPECTABLE AT THIS RANGE. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH THIS LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

yup.

know the difference.

Embrace the pattern. Stop model hugging. It's all on the table this year, at peak Holiday season. Enjoy the ride.

i dunno about that but I was up in the land of palms this week doing outside tours of the Harley Davidson plants...not a palm in sight and froze my ass off looking at dead vegetation and crusty snow piles. Made me think your opinions can't be trusted.

My call is won't be 60 on Christmas this year.

^ Greatly appreciate these write ups. My take: on track for some real winter over holiday period. Forecast: "oh the weather outside is frightful, and the fire looks so delightful,Let it snow, Let It Snow, Let it snow."

mid season form they can smell it on the LOT AVN update: WITH AS LITTLE AS ONE DEGREE POTENTIALLY BEING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW OCCURRING OR PRECIPITATION REMAINING AS ALL RAIN, OR BETWEEN SEEING A ROBUST, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW MIX, SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVERS, AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS LOW. ground truth update: A mix of snow/sleet/flakeage IMBY

mid season form.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND ROCKFORD HVY RAIN 36 33 89 E10G22 Heavy Rain and still 36 at Rockford. May not be a good sign for the turnover to Heavy Wet Snow crowd,

Teaser storm on track. Prairie Du Chen looks like the lollipop zone. Looking for some big wet flakes to enhance my holiday spirit today as I hit the Loop this evening for some dinner and downtown light gazing. December ambiance.

Put the L over Indy and you have a winner.

December snow...crazy.

on track.

update from the Land of Palms: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022 UPDATE (ISSUED 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022) TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR TOMORROWS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A QUICK MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE CLOUD ICE. ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS EAST WINDS PULL SOME RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

thats a good thing. sort of why alot of us our here...

setting the table.

well played.

hit the counselor's thread. It's December 5th and winter is going as it should. Prior to Thanksgiving we've seen a major invasion of cold, record breaking lake snows and measurable snow already through the Ozarks and Louisville, Ky. And Toledo as well. Reality bites.

^ that's quite the warm sector on that pattern changer cyclone. Nice to get in mid December versus Mid January this year.