Baum

no question. Time to issue a Travelers Advisory.

I'm still riding my call from Monday

this argument was not helped overnight, i see. Good news is they can run with a WWA and most folks won't think much about it.

little did we know we'd count that as a win.

oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches.

it would only be fitting to happen to Alek's rig in 5" of snow and a spot on call.

actually ,not allowed.

post of the day

reduced to looking for table scraps from the 18Z NAM

IZZIED.

that's ugly.

LOT with another nice write up. If you get bummed with the back and forth of the model hugger crowd it provides a nice reality check when deciphering all the information used to hone in on a forecast with an event like this.

I tend to think you'll be spot on or bust badly low. Either way,

Of course it's a risk. But given the potential and the time of year you need to get the word out. It was a concerted effort to make the public aware. The normal tom,dick, and jenny isn't looking at the 18Z European model. Let's face it a widespread 2-5" event with below zero wind chills and 45mph winds the days before Christmas is a major hazard for joe public.

a taste of AFD's for shits and gigggles: Minny: IN SUMMARY, THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH END, LIFE-THREATENING EVENT. THE RISK FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, EVENT THE EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES THAT ARE MORE WOODED. THIS, TOGETHER WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. Beer Town: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A POTENT WINTER STORM LATER THIS WEEK THAT COULD BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. Des Moines: TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA IS LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN IOWA BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ANYONE STRANDED WILL BE FACED WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, POOR VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOWPACK. ACCORDINGLY, THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH BLIZZARD WORDING. Kansas City: TRAVEL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRONGLY DISCOURAGED WITH POTENTIAL WHITE-OUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Fort Wayne: HOW QUICKLY THIS DEEPENING AND EVENTUAL WARM OCCLUSION OCCURS IS THE KEY TO THE ALL IMPORTANT SFC LOW TRACK AND WHO ENDS UP TAKING A DIRECT HIT FROM A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD. EVEN AREAS THAT DON'T TAKE A DIRECT HIT, WHICH COULD INCLUDE A LOT OF THE IWX CWA, WILL STILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO BE DISCUSSED SOON. Merry Christmas.

yup. Went full IZZI on a day 4 forecast. Now we know who to blame

maybe they saw the 18Z NAM

need an RC or Chi Storm analysis on the 12Z runs.

it's over.

it's over.

mystery met weighs in: "The gfs has gone west while the Euro has gone east. The fun and games continue. I think the GFS is to far west. I like a storm track from STL to DET right now. Travel west of the storm track will likely be shut down for a time. "

looks like a good ole fashioned midwest snowstorm just before Christmas. Nice.

not to trivialize....but

When was the last time we tracked a potential monster within 5 days of Christmas in the central midwest, east of the big river?

conservative, but good early call IMHO from this far out.