AirNelson39
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Everything posted by AirNelson39
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
AirNelson39 replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Good lord, this guy should stop making maps for anyone outside of VA. It’s downright pathetic -
Typical 33 and moderate rain here in Hickory. Perfect WWA conditions....sigh
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I love WWA for 33 and rain, they are so fun. 33 and rain is so damn easy to predict around here, who needs weather models when it’s so automatic? Ughhhh
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So over this shit hole winter. The models have been absolute trash for anything over 6 days. We had widespread agreement on cold and winter weather and both kept getting pushed back until they are just non existent Unreal. Bring on a nice cool Spring.
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Only thing I can think is a lot of these measurements were taken after some melting had occurred. My cameras showed a big loss in totals in a short window in the middle of the night.
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Pic at 4:11am quite a bit had melted
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Looking at our cameras in southern Caldwell we had the most on the ground around 12:30am where it looked like 2-3” with roads solid white. It was a constant melt fest from there on even with snow falling. By 4am roads were clear and it looked like 1-2” on grass/vehicle. All gone by noon. In summary, the HRRR nailed the best orientation of the heaviest precipitation. Was high on kuchera maps and didn’t factor in the melting too well but I’m pleasantly surprised with its performance. Pics at 12:15am
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Far southeastern Caldwell County.
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Based on reports and on current radar this is shaping up to be an impressive win for the HRRR, it was so consistent with putting heavy snow and decent accumulations up 85 to Hickory and points East. I’ll give it props on this one!
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This system will be a good one to really show if the HRRR is as bad as we think it is with winter storms. I’m still not excited for this for the Piedmont/Hickory area. We’ve seen decent snow and 34 degrees a few times this years and it equated to nothing. Hope I’m wrong but the temps don’t have me excited. I think we will be lucky to get another trace with 1-2” in the immediate foothills.
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I believe it was showing a major ice storm for I-40 corridor less than 12 hours out with last system and we had 34 and rain all day. That left a pretty bad taste in my mouth for the RGEM
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I’d say this is closer to reality especially for Piedmont and foothills. We’ll be lucky to see another dusting and if we do it’ll be gone within a few hours. After the way things have gone all winter I just can’t get excited for any model run. Depressing
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Saw a few flurries under those radar returns last night after 10pm here in SE Caldwell County. Was hoping for more given the returns. Looks like we may have another shot at some more flurries today with more returns breaking containment.
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Just like I suspected 33 and rain in Hickory. Sad stuff.
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Pretty jealous right now!
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Temp steady at 33, the dusting from earlier is gone. Looking like 33 and rain overnight. Weather apps have done a great job nailing the temps here. NWS forecasts aren’t looking good for NW Piedmont.
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Dusting here in Hickory (Caldwell County side), nothing on the roads. Looks like we are on the very tail end too. Might be all the wrote in regards to snow on this one.
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Not sure what model/models WeatherUnderground uses for their hourly forecast but they don’t have Hickory getting below 34 tonight. Little concerning on how we’ll get any ZR accrual with that. I know it’s an app but the models are clearly not impressed with surface temps in this area and the temp forecasts are typically pretty spot on. These borderline events never pan out.
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Brad P isn’t feeling it especially for the foothills. I’m not feeling this setup either and think the models are way overdone.
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Good grief. Someone take the pens away from him. Pathetic.
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Heavy, half dollar size flakes now.
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FINALLY all snow and moderate/heavy in southern Caldwell. No accumulations yet.
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This is why you don’t trust your phone apps. This is still the current forecast from my accuweather app. There’s absolutely zero snow on the ground.
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Where are you located? Guessing you aren’t in Boone lol. Here in Granite we didn’t even have 1/8” an inch before it melted lol
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Not seeing how southern Caldwell gets any accumulations out of this. Heading towards a major bust.
