AirNelson39

Glad the NAM is showing everyone not to put an ounce of trust into at 84 lol. Stick a fork in this one for anyone in western half of the state. Congrats down East! You guys have proven the 4+ day euro is on crack and the 84 hour NAM is on meth.

Actually inside of three days the forum was a ghost town for the last storm. Matthew East even made a comment about it.

Thank you euro for continuing to show you are no longer the king. What a joke lol

I think we can go ahead and stick a fork in this one for western NC, the Euro has crapped the bed on this one. I want snow IMBY as much as anyone but when every model except the euro is showing Raleigh east at this range it's time to listen. Congrats to the folks down east who haven't gotten in on the fun. The 18z 84 hour NAM doesn't change my mind either.

Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different.

This band of sleet coming through Caldwell County right now is nuts. Near white out conditions with sleet lol

Yes it is

Over to mostly sleet in southern Caldwell. Pretty insane with 23 degrees and 10-20mph winds.

Heavy snow southern Caldwell County 22.5 degrees winds gusting to 20 Big drifts!

Yes, that along with other upcoming storm threats are being talked about in the Long Range thread. This is just for this storm

In Granite Falls, NC 38.5 29.4 dew point Winds gusting to 10mph out of the east Dew point has been pretty steady since about 3pm

Brad P just put out his final call maps. Really backed off totals for foothills. 2-4” for most of the foothills and 4-6” for immediate escarpment. I’m hoping latest GFS busts his forecast. Major major let down if the foothills do indeed get 2-4”

With the exception of the eastern escarpment the gfs has really backed off totals for western Piedmont and foothills. Hoping the icon can score a coup. Places like hickory are being modeled as 3-6” on most models now except the icon which is showing 12+. Pretty major difference. A storm of this size and track and western half of the state can only eek out 1” of qpf on this run??

Seems like all of the models are really backing off totals for far western Piedmont and the foothills of NC. We’ve gone from 2” of liquid down to just over 1”. Not a good trend. Would have thought with a track like that we would have some much higher totals.

I knew it would likely happen but I’m still amazed how models really struggle in that ~ 5 day range. Everyone was cliff diving as each run went further and further away from the previous good runs for several days. I’ve noticed with a lot of our bigger storms over the years the 7+ day model runs are actually pretty dang good at picking up everything. Then around day 5 they really struggle with all aspects of the storm or lose the storm and it’s looking like this is again the case. We’ve gradually trended better and better since that day 5 melt down. The one I’ll never forget and the most vivid instance of this for me was the Christmas 2010 storm. Played out the same way. Moral of the story, don’t throw your towels in on day 4-5.

I wouldn’t get too concerned at this range. Can’t tell you how many times over the last 10+ years a storm would “go missing” at this 5 day range whether it “lose” the storm altogether or have it modeled a good ways off from what it ends up being. No reason for anyone in central/eastern NC, SC, GA to throw in the towel at this point.

Hmm, it works when I click it. Go to first gallery “First Snow 2022” www.nelsonaerialpros.smugmug.com

Got some nice shots today! Check them out at the online gallery

Seeing the progression of this storm as I went up 321 this morning was incredible. In 5 miles went from zero snow in the ground to 4-6”+ on the roads and white out conditions in Blowing Rock. Just shy of 3” of rain back in Granite Falls and bottomed out at 34.9 degrees at 9am. What a storm.

And just like that traffic is at a complete stand still on 321 before Blowing Rock

Roads turned to instant slush the moment I hit the state trooper gas station at the bottom of 321. Getting worse by the mile!

Leaving Granite Falls now, heading up to Boone and surrounding areas to hopefully get some snow shots. We’ve had 2.6” of rain since midnight! On 321 in granite and wet flakes are starting to mix in with the heavy rain

The fat lady has sung. After one of the worst winters I’ve been apart of in the hickory area I’m glad to see it go. Bring on a true spring with nice cool temps with good periods of dry weather like we have coming up.

How does the tempest handle the ice build up? Get any errors or weird readings for haptic rain sensor or wind readings?

I want the beauty of a big ice storm and the ability to use the dang generator. I just want some dang winter weather and I don’t care if it’s .75” of ZR