
MorristownWx
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Everything posted by MorristownWx
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I laughed so hard when I saw MJO post the GFS at 228. at this point unless there is a major storm, I’d love for the 2-3” of solid ice to melt over getting a couple more nickel and dime events which I usually like for the wintery feel and the easy clean up.
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He said it an a weird way so I get where you’re coming from but his point is valid. Models are tools, simple as that. They help meteorologists make forecasts. It is still incumbent on the forecasters to account for model biases, weigh the chances based on time from event, and decide the best way to alert the public. as other have stated, there was ONE suite where all models showed a storm at the same time. One. Sure each model showed the storm at one point, but they were clearly picking up on a wrong piece of energy or variable that impacted the output. For us to know since Saturday evening or Sunday morning that there wasn’t going to be a storm on Wednesday or Thursday for us, 4-5 days out, is pretty solid.
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Calling it noise in relation to all other guidance. As you said, it’s not a top-tier model and has been super erratic so without support from any other model, it’s noise as it relates to the bigger picture. we have about as good of model consensus as we could ask for 4 days out all things considering
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Not major shifts at all. Mostly noise from icon. NAM is at 84. The consensus, at least for right now is pretty clear. Let’s not discount how good the model agreement is 4 days out. GFS will be another miss. ICON has been most erratic of all models. Again, we have pretty strong agreement on the models.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
MorristownWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Sitting at 32, was really hoping today would have melted all the ice jams or at least last nights snow. May not do either.- 475 replies
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If there is one bright side and this may be a stretch, most models started losing this yesterday, roughly four days before the storm so at least it wasn’t giving the allusion for days. As someone else commented, it was a couple of suites with big storms and I believe one 00z suites where almost every model jumped on board before they started losing the storm at different points.
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Sure is, I always said that these boards should be mandatory reading for psychology majors and 1st years lol. My thoughts on NYC and points east being better suited in this set up remains and most (all?) models reflect that to varying degrees. I have my reservations sitting 30 miles west, but that could also be my slight conservative bias when forecasting for my area. as others have said, it’s about 4 days out from a potential storm and all the players there. How and when should start being ironed out over the next 36 hours or so.