MorristownWx

Agree - getting to the point in the calendar where I’ll take this all day long over more nickle and dime events that were enjoyable this winter.

Since we have the discussion about cold averages over the past 10/30/50 years every single time there is a storm and even when there isn’t, maybe it would be helpful to create a thread specifically to talk about temperature anomaly’s/norms/history, etc. It would still allow those who want to beat the horse to death the forum to do so, and would allow those of us who want to focus on upcoming/current weather to not have to sift through pages of people bickering over whether a winter was cold or not. I get it’s a weather forum, but a simple solution and compromise would be to open a thread to talk about historical comparisons. thoughts?

Anyone in the Morristown/chester area know what the season snowfall is? I think it’s around 20” for my location but just going off the events I remember.

Literally just left Chester. Everything is whitening up.

Same. Just enough to whiten up the ice so I can fall on it lol

Are we confused about the flurries and very light snow? That’s all we’re supposed to get. Even with models showing half an inch or so, you have to account for a really dry air mass with almost 0 precip. Enjoy the flurries. Or don’t.

Flurries in Morristown. A very wintery year, even if we didn’t get a lot of snow. I think it’s snowed on 12 or 13 times this year and ground has been covered with snow/ice for most of the winter — still have about 2” of ice pack I’d love to get rid of lol

I laughed so hard when I saw MJO post the GFS at 228. at this point unless there is a major storm, I’d love for the 2-3” of solid ice to melt over getting a couple more nickel and dime events which I usually like for the wintery feel and the easy clean up.

Why are you doing this to yourself? admittedly, I checked in on the thread for entertainment purposes but this has been dead now for over 36 hours as a storm. We can still see snow showers or flurries, but the storm idea for us is gone.

He said it an a weird way so I get where you’re coming from but his point is valid. Models are tools, simple as that. They help meteorologists make forecasts. It is still incumbent on the forecasters to account for model biases, weigh the chances based on time from event, and decide the best way to alert the public. as other have stated, there was ONE suite where all models showed a storm at the same time. One. Sure each model showed the storm at one point, but they were clearly picking up on a wrong piece of energy or variable that impacted the output. For us to know since Saturday evening or Sunday morning that there wasn’t going to be a storm on Wednesday or Thursday for us, 4-5 days out, is pretty solid.

I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps

we had about 24 hours where it looked like we had model consensus to have a major storm and that was D5 and D6. at no point were we in any range to say that a HECS was in play. You can start discussing that possibility 48 hours out, Not in the 4-6 day fantasy range. It is what it is.

All how you look at it. 1-3 maybe even 2-4 still possible for nyc and east with higher amount as you head east. Best case scenario

Calling it noise in relation to all other guidance. As you said, it’s not a top-tier model and has been super erratic so without support from any other model, it’s noise as it relates to the bigger picture. we have about as good of model consensus as we could ask for 4 days out all things considering

Not major shifts at all. Mostly noise from icon. NAM is at 84. The consensus, at least for right now is pretty clear. Let’s not discount how good the model agreement is 4 days out. GFS will be another miss. ICON has been most erratic of all models. Again, we have pretty strong agreement on the models.