GramaxRefugee

Low 29f (DP reached 12)

Light snow at 7:30 here in AACo. Low was 31f.

March 1942 (Baltimore)... Temp anomaly was +2.8...Hit 76f on feast of St. Patrick.....22" of snow fell on 3/29/42. Same date also the lowest temp of the month at 33f. That's right, a 22" snowfall month in which the temp never fell to freezing.

Snow squall here at 16:40; was working outdoors and it caught me by surprise.

At this time of year, a heavy snow would be melted in a few days anyway. Winning Glory Never Melts. However....2.5 inches at RIC, with a little bit at IAD would suit me fine.

Feb Total 1.62" Highest temp 66, lowest 21

Here's the 2016 storm as written by the legendary Paul Kocin. (For some reason it's been hanging around my hard drive for years) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES. COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN. IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE. IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE... THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE. KOCIN

They seem to have measured gusts at 145mph.. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=rev&issuedby=REV&product=PNS Notice how their gadget drops the highest to the bottom because its not set for 3 digit measurements.

low 24 but no frost to scrape

0.40" at my gauge; last night's reading

I had it highlight the +1.5, and then highlighted anything same or higher. Winter months only. Satellite era only. At first glance it looks like you might expect, but too many exceptions to be definitive.

Several rumbles of thunder last evening followed by a shower of 0.01" total. 39f and overcast this morning.

A link within that link is an analysis of the storm by Uccellini. (Youngsters; he is the U in KU) Pretty good read with updated graphics. Repeating here for convenience: https://ocean.weather.gov/2-PresidentsDayStormColloquium_Uccellini.pdf

Took an involuntary Jebwalk during the storm when my buddy and I stuck his Jeep, (1960 CJ3B; . Badass). Probably about 8am when it was really hitting us hard. I seem to remember measuring 22" in Howard County, but not certain.

Melted down to 3/4 inch now. Will report 1" based on my predawn observation. 33f here

23f with frost (I think about 5 below my LWX forecast)

Largest ever recorded by modern scientific instruments. Largest of satellite era. 1000 times the Hiroshima bomb. You are on to something young man.

Just invite a dozen of her preschool friends over to your house. Then she'll be happy and you can have a quiet, relaxing day. Win-win. (sarc tag, eh...)

Annapolis flipped to snow about 8:30. Nice big flakes. Windy too.

Temps down from 36/35 after midnight high of 42. No snow yet but some wind gusts.

Heh, the photo kinda looks like someone left a Halloween decoration on the woodpile. But, the bat was quite docile. It looks like a mouse at first. Then it spread those wings. I may have to relocate it next week if it doesn't move to a new more sheltered spot. I use my crab tongs for that. (Rabies and all that.)

(moved from obs thread) Uncovered a hibernating bat while loading firewood on Saturday. It was yawning a lot, and I was about done for now, so covered it back up, lest the dog start chasing it. This is about the 3rd time this has happened, but probably the largest bat.

27f this morning. Been scraping a lot of windshield frost past few days. Woodstove going early. Cracked open a new pile of 3 year red oak on Saturday and uncovered a hibernating bat. (Suppose I should post a pic) eta: OK, I put it in the Gardening thread, (but it still reads 2023): https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58709-2023-mid-atlantic-garden-lawn-and-other-green-stuff-thread/?do=findComment&comment=7195990

The creature is clearly seeking shelter from an impending heavy snowstorm. See if you can trap it or at least get a photo, so we can determine if it's a MECS mouse or a HECS mouse.

Same here. Started this morning from 25 too.