anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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They always underdo the warm nose. I think even 2" is impossible for the city proper. This is a non event, likely repeat of the last one. Coating of sleet/slop that melts before sunset.
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That's what im seeing. Saturday night an inch or two of slop, next storm misses south, and then cutter city. Not really impressed at all.
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We have been really lacking in the PNA aspect. In my opinion this is the most important thing for getting a big blockbuster storm nowadays (without block busters we cant get to seasonal averages anymore). Unfortunately nothing is suggesting a pna spike in the near future.
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The only thing that can prevent another below normal winter is a huge ridge out west. Without that all the qpf will underperform.
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Sometimes I have a moment of weakness and succumb to optimism. But then the event always underperforms and I'm reminded about how dreadful the pattern is. Hopefully it takes less than 10 years to get out of this slump.
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Im not trolling, im just the only one not in denial about the pitiful snowfall pattern since February of 2022. Something changed after Feb 2022 and we're not getting out of this slump anytime soon.
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Tell me you havent been paying attention to how hard it is to get snow for the last 3 years. Bruh the entire winter of 2022-2023 couldnt get that amount lol!
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There's a huge difference between 1.5" of snow (what nws forecasted) and 0.5" of sleety mess. That's a third of the forecast amount which is a huge bust.
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it was 6.8 last i checked so now its 7.3. Next storm will be a non event similar to this one I feel. 1/11 not feeling great about either. After 1/11 the pattern seems to relax so snow ops should diminish quickly. It's a coin toss as to whether the park finished above or below 10".
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LOL huge underperformer yet again? Not surprised at all, it forgot how to snow in our region. Still pretty confident central park ends February under 5". The next storm will be a carbon copy of this one, and the 1/11 one should miss south or weaken dramatically. We just cant buy a good snowstorm after 2022.
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This 100%. In our region you cannot see a snowy pattern more than 7 days out. There is simply too much volatility and moving pieces.
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idk if you can get out of a low snow type pattern we’ve been in just three years. Look at the 80s.
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Yea I can get the excitement but the fact that we've gotten essentially nothing notable since Feb 2022 despite plenty of these long ragne fantasy setups is not helping the case. The pattern has been low snow, when in doubt go with the pattern.
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Folks: Unless the euro is showing a bomb in your backyard at a 3 day lead time, expect to get a LOT less than what the long range gfs shows lmao. 9 days out snow forecasts are GARBAGE.
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I can see 3-4" for the city at the end of this.
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100%. I can easily see the first two bring 1 inch of slop and the storm 9 days out that people are hyping to no end bringing 3"ish to the city lol. Going for the under is always wise these days. Dont know how people havent learned yet.
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Even if you count 2021 the 5 year average for central park is currently at all an time low.
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Not a sock account I discovered this forum a month ago. I promise I love snow just as much as the weenies here but I'm also a realist! Ive seen how dramatically snow has dropped off from 2021 and I really just dont think its our year yet. We have to get through this crap low snow decade.
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Oh look the GFS 200 hours out. That’s always gone well for us hasnt it.
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Yea the one exceptional year. Delete it and its the lowest snowfall decade and nothing even comes close
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If you have to say the words “pattern change” and keep looking 300+ hours out on ensembles, you arent going to do well snowfall wise. We still have learned it dosent like to snow in our region in the 2020s!
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Right we’re just not favored to get snow currently. Have you not noticed that it hasnt snowed heavily in three years ? Do you think this is a coincidence? The city is taking a break from snow.
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Rain’s almost always a lock. Specially when something when its the euro showing it. Idk why the weenies here are getting excited this pattern screams new england and interior. Also you dont know whats gonna happen after the 10th we cant forecast for shit past 10 days. Onto spring.
