anthonymm

3" works as well (95% success rate) but yeah gonna need to see just a dusting more before the park officially gets 3". Would really not take much at this point lol

Can confirm. Just took a long walk there. It was deep..

what does the "3" la nina december in the park" theory have to say about this?

Temps overperformed big time before. When I saw it hit 40 in central park I knew there was no way they'd cool down fast enough to have numbers like 4-5" verifying. Cpark needs an arctic antecedent airmass well below 32 for forecasts to verify now...

Newark and JFK seem unaffected. Forecasts should verify there with about 3". Here in Jersey City im sitting at 3" with some more to go.

Well it's not misleading if they work out about 1 in 10 times. Which I think they do.

Looks like this winter will be significantly different from the last few. As we all know 3-4”+ in a nina december stacks the odds heavily to a 30”+ winter for our area.

Has got nothing to do with UHI actually. Long Island's been in just as much as a snow drought. UHI isn't a factor during snowstorms cause the snow rapidly cools the surface.

Really? Have you considered that NYC hasn't gotten a 4" storm since 2022? LOL.

Thats how nina decembers go. Getting 0" is a la nina december is a great way to ensure getting a historically least snowy winter. This winter could be over by about the 15th if we dont have anything credible to track unfortunately

Yup I believe i pointed out 22-23 was a great analog

Threat for Sunday looks impotent

BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.

Cold dry warm wet. If we don't have HP the north then Dec 12 will be rain for the city. If we do it'll suppress south to Virginia. NYC metro is a really unlucky spot now for snow. Too south for the marginal/interior tracks, too north for the supressively cold tracks. Only way to get snow now is with benchmark tracks, which not even the fantasy GFS is showing. Likely <3" December---> low snow winter #4 of the 2020s.

Can see it being like Dec 24 or Jan 25. Below normal temps but we get all our precip from the odd cutter / coastal hugger when the cold pattern relaxes.