anthonymm

Yeah we're easily in the lowest multiyear snow drought. The scary thing is I think the pattern is set. NYC will likely have a mean around 15" for good now.

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.

Lol yeah the pattern in recent years has been the total opposite in fact. Cold out west, blowtorch in the east.

Definitely not any time within the next 3 weeks.

13-14 didn't have any KUs. Last year would have been decent had the pacific not created such a fast flowing pattern. That mid February storm (I think feb 9?) would have been good if it had just stalled.

80s type snowfall pattern too, but even less.

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

Dont worry, we sizzle this friday and the last week of september + first half of october.

I see 22-23 as a good analog.

Wow I really hope we don't torch the last several days of the month. I need to be outside all day and I'd rather not sweat my a*s off in mid 80s temps.

The last couple days of Sept scares me. GFS has been hinting at a torchfest.

That pacific look is awful actually for the eastern US. The strongest warm anomalies are in the western pac. I think this is gonna reinforce western Aleutian ridging and troughing over the rockies. Should be a very familiar feeling winter for the I95, similar to the last few years with western storm tracks/great lakes cutters.

Are you seeing September finish above normal for the park? I'm seeing a lot of muggy nights (almost 70 degree overnight lows!) in the upcoming week, which should erode the cooler start totally.

Cold start to a month usually means blowtorch finish. It's very difficult to pull off BN months these days. I can see a huge -PNA ridge over the east to finish off the month. Probably upper 80s for everyone south of SNE.

It will verify.