cleetussnow

Ontario doesn’t freeze. Too deep. Michigan too. Thats why areas east of it like the TUG can see 400 inches easily while the Erie snow machine shuts down usually by now, same for the UP. Erie is shallow to it freezes the most often. Superior snd Huron rarely entirely freeze.

We talked about this.

Lots of debate about what cold is? This winter sucks.

Even better go back 100,000 years. Its insanely hot!

I’m not sure there is one. At all.

You have to leave out some low anomalies too then.

relaxing NAOs...timing

thats not a cutter on the qpf chart

My fuel bill was always around $1,000 per month. With pellets I cut it in half (ish.) I still burn SOME oil. Pellets were a lot cheaper 10 yrs ago when oil was still high, so I don't save as much.

I've been chewing through my wood pellet stash rapido. I think the wind was sucking the heat out of my house exacerbating the already cold temps. No wind and mild is welcome, but I'd trade it for a storm all day long. Don't see anything now that I feel great about tho.

congrats DC

set your watches to it.

Cherry picking data. Exactly. Plus the fact that was a huge outlier type event got all our attention. I wrote a post about how perhaps looking at things from the oppositional point of view and see what it looks like as a way to clear the mind. I.e. review the models with the idea you'd like to see cold and dry in this case. If you did that perhaps you would have strong conviction the storm was not likely at all and the models were on your side, cut and dry. It would be like 'oh ok. its cold and dry period move on.' The peeps on here who like cold and dry or warm - this does not vindicate them nor validate their biases. DT always used to ask "what could go wrong" in his weenie storm forecasts to help keep things somewhat in perspective. I don't follow him anymore at all.

You and snowman being the only real people. Got it.

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution? Should have been easily discounted in hindsight. I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase. Kind of feel like a sucker now.

Interesting that the antarctic has recovered considerably. Seems right back in the middle ish.

The dates ranges are out of sync

Trashcans were like aerosols today in my hood

Eventually it will and they will all lose their jobs.

Japan has latitude, a cold air source, and can whip up a moisture feed since it's an island. Siberia is like our Canada, only colder. Some of the urban snow pictures are incredible. Even Tokyo can get whacked - and I think it did like 5 or 6 years ago.

while that look is good, no blocking opens the door for a bunch of other reasons a storm can miss.

start a thread. Kill it.

Just the phase is off because the northern stream is too quick. The pattern isn’t bad. There is a coastal.

If this does a boxing day I am going to be cancelling a lot of shit and just be like awe shit generally.

If we start a cutter thread...maybe something else will happen. Voodoo like the GFS ;-)