Yes and this is why seasonal forecasts that simply bias warm every single season are right enough to keep their jobs. Write of a bunch of baloney about why what enso pattern and weather this and that will cause warm conditions (barely mention climate) and get that champagne ready for the false positive. If anything the signals of old have decayed in value - why bother.
studies show that if people had a chance to pick heads or tails with money at stake using a coin weighted 60% tails, some people, in fact most, pick heads from time to time. Going colder is a losing bet anyway just let’s get attribution right in a couple words. You’ll go broke banking cold.