cleetussnow

Ok the ssts are like footprints. Something is making the footprints - ssts depicted aren’t derived in a vacuum. Unless they are and that’s why seasonal models utterly suck.

Hold up. We cancel winter on a 6 month snow map but we toss 5 day snow maps. Got it.

Trynna picture what happened between the 2nd and third frame lol

I think climate change has been taken into account as a factor, without the climate dynamics at play really being understood. A bias has emerged in hurricane seasonal forecasts, which maybe works for winter forecasts 7 times in 10 and that makes sense, but hurricane seasonals have not verified 7 in 10 this century so far. Go back to the drawing board and work out a new method is my suggestion. This isn’t the first bust of a dramatic hurricane season prognostication.

Question, and because I don’t have a clue: why do we say warm waters = increased hurricane activity? Don’t we need a temp delta to generate storms, regardless of a ‘warm’ state? Meaning - warm, normal, or cold, isn’t a big air/water temp delta the driver? Is that true? Hurricane seasonal forecasts have not been great over the last 25 years IIRC.

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors. Meh.

Shes got him in rear naked choke

Who knew summer would be reduced to 2 months. I can tell you, no one.

I saw another tonight - north northeast of me 9:30 ish.I wasn’t really watching the sky this time but happened to catch it. It probably is a busy sky this week if you can patiently watch. There is a lot of light pollution up here still (Mohonk area) so star gazing is kinda disappointing generally.

Funny - I wonder if I saw the same one. I am northwest of the city tonight (New Paltz area) and I saw one south and slightly east of me. Maybe that would have appeared wnw of you. Rather bright…showed through a thin cloud. Maybe the same? I’m glad you mentioned it.

Yeah this place is a sausage party. At least the weather is nice!

Nice work

Bro that indeed sucks. I’ve had 2 brushes with it down here, one back in June. Both times i got hit with em just around the neighborhood dog walking. I saw the ticks when I had a ring going, and both times I got it in time with a 2 weeks of doxie. No lyme symptons developed so far since. I think if you can still see the rash and you get drugs you could be alright? Someone else can confirm. I am not a dr.

Start a thread in this forum. Call it local impacts of climate change. I got no problem with that. It’s a great tropic. I’d read it so would everyone else. Tom Dick and Harry type daily weather events discussion belongs here. Rain next week, dry pattern this month, ice storm, hurricane, that sort of thing. All that stuff should be here. Septembers getting warmer over the years, warm anomalies increasing in February over the years should be there. That way you can be quantitative and say Septembers are getting warmer and heres the data. Example: If it’s modeled to be 89 on September 12, that is a pattern development for the September thread. You don’t want to say it’s hot on September 12 because of climate change if it turns out it’s 41 on September 14th. Wouldn’t want to say climate change has reversed in 2 days. This is conflating 2 dynamics. All good my friend.

My user name is a character in a movie, who is pictured in my sig. I go to the climate change thread all the time. You should check it out.