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LordBaltimore

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Everything posted by LordBaltimore

  1. LordBaltimore
    she knew about my snow habits before she married me
  2. LordBaltimore
    The 4-10" on 1/6 was noteworthy because of the 3+ weeks it stuck around. Another 4-10" immediately followed by rain is like being served takis in a bag after lobster
  3. LordBaltimore
    words spoken by every great meteorologist at some point in their teens
  4. LordBaltimore
    Freezing rain outside the mountains isn't very visually impressive and just makes driving nasty af. Wish we could transfer QPF to next week
  5. LordBaltimore
    The control in a variational DA system like the IFS -aka ECMWF- isn't a reference state. It's the modal solution. Imagine a Gaussian curve with each regular ensemble member acting as an equally likely sample. The control isn't just some regular old member. It's the peak of the Gaussian
  6. LordBaltimore
    Whoever took down my temp sensor today is a massive turd
  7. LordBaltimore
    On the bright side there is something to be said about the lack of a January torch this year. Current guidance doesn't suggest we'll get above 50 until February. Looking through climate records, would be the first time in at least 25 years without a monthly high above 55 degrees for a lot of places
  8. LordBaltimore
    Never seen someone passed up for a grant by snow. Never had a paper rejected by snow. Never spent months coding snow that doesn't work. Science sucks. Snow rules
  9. LordBaltimore
    Low of 7 IMBY. cold killed my car battery this morning. One of maybe three times I've ever been annoyed by low temps
  10. LordBaltimore
    lots of subtleties with snowcover. New snowpack is highly insulating because of air pockets, which means lower skin temps than old snowpack due to less heat draw from the soil. Older snowpack is radiatively similar to wet soil but with higher albedo.
  11. LordBaltimore
    if this wasn't an advective cooling night I'd be pissed. At least that snow is still working for our benefit tn
  12. LordBaltimore
    Feeling better and better about convincing my fiance to honeymoon in Massachusetts. Can't wait to escape this shallow-snow hellscape
  13. LordBaltimore
    Got about 1" of low ratio snow mixed in with an initial layer of slushy sleet, on top of about 1.5" from 1/6. Disappointed, but the pack we have here is now armored up, battle hardened, and ready to throw down. Will be a solid sheet of ice by tomorrow
  14. LordBaltimore
    respect for fallen snowpack. F
  15. LordBaltimore
    I will never in my life complain about a dry boundary layer again. 100X better than this rain/snow mix scenario
  16. LordBaltimore
    who knew the CMC was right the whole time with the mixing. I hope this means I get my subzero temps Wednesday and Thursday morning as contractually, legally promised
  17. LordBaltimore
    hope you're stocked up on ibuprofen. It's the only thing that works for tooth pain.
  18. LordBaltimore
    you guys are lucky. I've spent the last two days trying to figure out where to put a temperature sensor out in my apartment complex so that it's both valid and not liable to have someone think it's a spycam.
  19. LordBaltimore
    Melting seems to have stopped. Going by official protocol (average depth over exposed areas) snow depth seems to be around 1-1.5 inches. Amazing how long the snowpack has lasted. If this storm verifies for 2-4 along with ensuing cold, then there will have been at least a trace on the ground from the 3rd to the ~26th, or over an inch from the 6th. That's double the climatology for stretches of continuous snowcover in these parts
  20. LordBaltimore
    The fv3 has inherent problems with updrafts because of the d-grid. Not sure how this translates to winter storms but take a look at this: https://epic.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UIFCW-2023-Tue-4.-Wicker_FV3_UFS_Talk-1.pdf
  21. LordBaltimore
    snowpack in columbia starting to look rough. Guessing that most of the surviving pack by tomorrow morning will be in protected areas. On the bright side, whatever makes it through will be as legitimate of a snowpack as anything in New England, with frozen rainwater adding to liquid water content.
  22. LordBaltimore
    There's been a non-negligible chance of a nuclear war every single year for awhile now. People talk about 2100 but I'd say > 50% we get something black swan like that makes predictions useless
  23. LordBaltimore
    I have a feeling BWI will reach a max of exactly 33.1 F today
  24. LordBaltimore
    DC area down to -11F morning after. This might be the most beautiful model run I've ever seen
  25. LordBaltimore
    Those shrimp trawlers better batten down the hatches
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